mitchnick Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Is that a good number "2" on the Daily OISST, Mitch? Ideally, we want the warmest waters to be at or just east of the international dateline (180 degrees), but it's improving out west of where you referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 +PDO config gained some real estate too, Mitch. Pattern over the next 7 days should make it look even better. It's looking fairly likely the we will enter December with the highest PDO # since 02-03. U of Washington data has Dec 02 @ 2.10. I could see a less robust version of this in the PDO domain come Dec 1st: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 +PDO config gained some real estate too, Mitch. Pattern over the next 7 days should make it look even better. It's looking fairly likely the we will enter December with the highest PDO # since 02-03. U of Washington data has Dec 02 @ 2.10. I could see a less robust version of this in the PDO domain come Dec 1st: I looked at that for a split second before I realized it was 02-03 and was salivating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 too bad Nino is weak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 too bad Nino is weak... It is what it is unfortunately. At least it looks better now than we though it would a month ago. Coastal posted about the latest euro SIPS in the sne forum. Looks like an aleutian low on the means and blocking during Jan-Feb. Even with a weak Nino, Pac looks quite tasty. Looking forward to getting the first advisory level monkey off the back event of the year. Maybe it sneaks in during the first 10 days of Dec.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I remember a time when weenies actually preferred the weak Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I remember a time when weenies actually preferred the weak Nino. sure...in 40N where they are good...There are a couple outliers but they aren't great for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 sure...in 40N where they are good...There are a couple outliers but they aren't great for DC... Do you think there's an actual meteorological reason why they haven't been good or do you think it's more a small sample size effect? I made a post about this somewhere up-thread, but I sort of have to believe it's a SSS effect at least in part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 Do you think there's an actual meteorological reason why they haven't been good or do you think it's more a small sample size effect? I made a post about this somewhere up-thread, but I sort of have to believe it's a SSS effect at least in part. both...but southern stream tends not to be as robust in weaker events, and storm track tends to be to our west more often...I don't think it is any coincidence that 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 were big snow winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 both...but southern stream tends not to be as robust in weaker events, and storm track tends to be to our west more often...I don't think it is any coincidence that 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 were big snow winters... Yeah, agree with the later for sure. I guess my thought is with a large enough sample (and a stable climate), you should get a bell curve of snowfall around some ideal/optimal ENSO state. Probably, that's in the moderate Nino range. If that's true, then the bad trend in weak Ninos and the good trend in cold neutrals/weak Ninas would shift. All speculation, but just my thoughts OTTOMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 both...but southern stream tends not to be as robust in weaker events, and storm track tends to be to our west more often...I don't think it is any coincidence that 57-58, 63-64, 65-66, 86-87, 02-03, 09-10 were big snow winters... I've never felt that a snowy winter was going to be likely or "easy" this year. We can easily be cold and underperform on the snow. IMHO- it will come down to knocking out 1-2 solid events to hit 125%+ of climo. Whiff on those we we nickel and dime and not hit the mark. Pretty much stating the obvious. Any winter with one or more decent patterns only increases chances but doesn't lock in anything. Wasting decent patterns is a bit of a staple in our parts. OTOH- last winter maximized an otherwise so-so pattern. Our snow totals the last 20 years have been similar to the Skins seasons. Every once in a while we accidentally make the playoffs but a losing record is much more common. Making the playoffs 2 years in a row? hmmm....heh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 I looked at that for a split second before I realized it was 02-03 and was salivating... Oh, wow. I had to go back and look back and forth a few times. The similarities are striking. 3.4 could use some work but we are headed in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 ^Wow, nice! North Atlantic is really similar between the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 ^Wow, nice! North Atlantic is really similar between the years. Like a cold beating heart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 ^LOL! ETA: considering the 02 link I posted is for Dec 2nd we still have time for a perfect match! The upwelling uber kelvin cell will kick the hadley wave into overdrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 ^Wow, nice! North Atlantic is really similar between the years. but the west coast is different, warm this year. Not sure if that would change much though. Nice to see the warm patches similar along the east coast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 but the west coast is different, warm this year. Not sure if that would change much though. Nice to see the warm patches similar along the east coast though. I don't think the warm anoms off of baja are a bad thing but not really something I know much about. Since the npac is the primary driver of our lw pattern, the similarities to 02-03 in the pdo region is a definite plus. The wildcard is how much of a ss we can get going in a weaker enso regime than 02-03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 From Tropical Tidbits. Jan and Feb both look really good but the trough in December looks kinda close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 17, 2014 Share Posted November 17, 2014 From Tropical Tidbits. Jan and Feb both look really good but the trough in December looks kinda close to the coast. When is that from? Looks a bit outdated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 PAGING HM and others that know about SSW http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/a-major-split-in-the-polar-vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 this looks pretty darn nice (Matt!!!!!!!!) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 18, 2014 Share Posted November 18, 2014 this looks pretty darn nice (Matt!!!!!!!!) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Looks decent, but still a special needs Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 this looks pretty darn nice (Matt!!!!!!!!) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html we're torching...I'd like to see it rise a lot more...let's start by getting a weekly of 1+ next Monday,,,I think we might do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 we're torching...I'd like to see it rise a lot more...let's start by getting a weekly of 1+ next Monday,,,I think we might do it honestly, I was thinking the same thing today's TAO map also jumped today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 honestly, I was thinking the same thing today's TAO map also jumped today I get daily numbers and 3.4 was at 1.16 which is the highest it has been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 I get daily numbers and 3.4 was at 1.16 which is the highest it has been... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 PAGING HM and others that know about SSW http://www.abc2news.com/weather/weather-blogs/a-major-split-in-the-polar-vortexI would say HM summed it up a few pages ago, days ago. Like many others, this news outlet is looking for something scientific and mysterious to hype for the public. Although QBO seems to have risen to a prime modest negative value since early Oct, a good thing to asset with destroying the PV. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 October PDO - +1.49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 October PDO - +1.49 That's solid. Better than 02-03 at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 19, 2014 Share Posted November 19, 2014 Highest PDO since 97. I wasn't on the east coast in 97-98. Was that a good year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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