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Another Cold Shot Jan 7-8


CT Rain

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These are incredible obs out of BUF:

BUF...note the rare 1/16sm and 0sm visibility amid 40kt+ peak winds.

KBUF 062354Z 27022G32KT 1/16SM R23/2600V4500FT +SN BLSN VV003 M14/M16 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 24043/2307 SLP087 SNINCR 1/3 60006 P0004 4/003 T11441161 11061 21144 53028

KBUF 062335Z 26020G31KT 0SM R23/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN VV004 M14/M16 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 24043/2307 PRESRR P0001

KBUF 062245Z 23028G37KT 1/8SM R23/3000VP6000FT +SN BLSN VV007 M12/M17 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/2221 P0001

Watertown/ART also coming in with 1/4sm +SN recently with sustained 30-40mph winds, gusting near 50.

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kulaginman

Yesterday, 09:54 PM

"Another interesting aspect of this storm will be the combination of heavy snow and extreme low temperatures. If the 2m temps on the NAM/Euro verify...we might be looking at 1-2"/hour snowfall rates occurring in areas where the actual air temperature is between -5F and -10F early Tuesday morning. I'm not sure I have ever seen that before.

This is likely going to be the most extreme case of cold advection into western New York since January 1994. Does anyone recall a significant lake effect event with that outbreak? I was only 10 years old, but I remember sledding at Bassett Park in Amherst in whiteout conditions during that outbreak. The BUF lake effect database doesn't go back that far."

Frigging Leon

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These are incredible obs out of BUF:

BUF...note the rare 1/16sm and 0sm visibility amid 40kt+ peak winds.

KBUF 062354Z 27022G32KT 1/16SM R23/2600V4500FT +SN BLSN VV003 M14/M16 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 24043/2307 SLP087 SNINCR 1/3 60006 P0004 4/003 T11441161 11061 21144 53028

KBUF 062335Z 26020G31KT 0SM R23/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN VV004 M14/M16 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 24043/2307 PRESRR P0001

KBUF 062245Z 23028G37KT 1/8SM R23/3000VP6000FT +SN BLSN VV007 M12/M17 A2971 RMK AO2 PK WND 23040/2221 P0001

Watertown/ART also coming in with 1/4sm +SN recently with sustained 30-40mph winds, gusting near 50.

 

 

Yep..    BLZ Warning for BUF

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Yep.. BLZ Warning for BUF

one of the most impressive statements I have ever read. GENESEE-WYOMING COUNTIES...

EAST OF LAKE ERIE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPERIENCED

IN THE BAND CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHTOWNS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE

ERIE COUNTY LINE/NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL

TROUGH AKA SHORT-WAVE IS STARTING TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE

REGION AT 03Z...WITH BOTH A PUSH TO THE SOUTH BUT ALSO WITH

REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THE BAND. THE NET RESULT

IS LITTLE CHANGE. UPSTREAM LOWER LEVELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND

DIRECTION PER KCLE RADAR...ALTHOUGH HIGHER DATA SUGGESTS A WEAK

LAKE MI CONNECTION THAT MIGHT RE-ENERGIZE BAND BEHIND THE SHORT-

WAVE. LATEST MODEL DATA GETS A STRONGER BAND GETS GOING BETWEEN

12-15Z...BUT SUSPECT THIS IS TOO SLOW. THEREFORE EXPECT BAND TO BE

DEVELOPING OR IN FULL FORCE BY AROUND SUNRISE NEAR/OVER KBUF...BUT

NOT QUITE TO NORTHTOWNS. THE BAND MAY CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTH

DURING THE DAY. A CONTINUATION OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY...AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. EVEN

OUTSIDE OF THE BAND...BRIEF WHITEOUTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO BLOWING

AND DRIFTING SNOW. THE BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 6AM

WEDNESDAY...BUT IT MAY BE CONVERTED BACK TO ANOTHER LESS

SIGNIFICANT PRODUCT LATER IF NECESSARY.

TO ADD TO THE PROBLEM...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR 0F OR

BELOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BLIZZARD LOCATIONS...WITH WIND

CHILLS WELL BELOW THAT. STARTING TO SEE OBSERVATIONS NEARING -40F

IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY WIND CHILLS ARE NOT

PART OF BLIZZARD CRITERIA...IT MAKES THIS EVENT A DANGEROUS TO

LIFE THREATENING SITUATION FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE WITHOUT PROPER

WINTER GEAR.

EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE WILL HAVE MORE

OF AN IMPACT ON THE LAKE BAND WITH A KIND OF WHIP-LASH

EFFECT...SWINGING THE BAND A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF ITS CURRENT

LOCATION...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS IT REBOUNDS BACK TO THE TUG HILL

LATER TONIGHT. THE BAND SHOULD THEN REMAIN IN A STEADY STATE

THROUGH THE DAY...WITH NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CONTINUING WELL

BEYOND TUESDAY.

IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS...THE STRONG WINDS MAKE MEASURING SNOW

NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...ITS BORDERING ON DANGEROUS! ROUGH

ESTIMATES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BANDS ARE AROUND 4

INCHES...BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THE HEART OF BOTH BANDS

SO FAR THIS EVENING. WE MAY NEVER NO EXACTLY HOW MUCH FELL

OVERNIGHT...BUT WE EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED BANDS ON

TUESDAY ENE OF BOTH LAKES. 2-3 FEET FOR THE STORM TOTAL EAST OF

LAKE ERIE LOOKS GOOD STILL...DOUBLE THAT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

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