user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lets Keep the Topic on the Models... 00z Summary SREF: 0.50 - 0.65 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/21/sref_namer_042_precip_p24.gif NAM: 0.50 - 0.65 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/00/nam_namer_042_precip_ptot.gif GFS: 0.25 - 0.50 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_042_precip_ptot.gif GEFS: 0.40 - 0.60 RGEM: 0.40 - 0.60 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_00/accum/PR_000-048_0000.gif GGEM: 0.45 - 0.65 http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/PNMPR_panel.gif UKMET: 0.50 - 0.60 http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/PNMPR_panel.gif JMA - .50 - .75 Euro is wetter across the board NYC: 0.7" EWR: 0.7" LGA: 0.75 ISP: 0.85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Correct me if I am wrong, but didnt the 00z look better in terms of H5? Wasn't there a NEG Tilt to the trough? Maybe that will correlate to the surface on 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF Ouch, that looks super dry compared to what it had right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sref mean for kblm is 0.66", up from 0.61" at 21z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Sref mean for kblm is 0.66", up from 0.61" at 21z.. yep,,,looks like a solid 5-10" for monmouth county. how I wish I still lived up there right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM is a little further east at the surface, should be slightly less precip this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 4-6" of snow for NYC and 6-10" of snow for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 SREF output - the mean is about a half an inch less the 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Based on the 06Z RUC, the ratios will start off at 12:1 for the NYC Metro Area at 6PM. Then it jumps up to 15:1 at 10PM when the heavier snow starts. http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=ruc_jet:&runTime=2014010206&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 http://ruc.noaa.gov/RUC/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=ruc_jet:&runTime=2014010206&plotName=temp_t3700&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 4-6" of snow for NYC and 6-10" of snow for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Someone is going to be dissapointed. But I hope that is underdone and everyone gets 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like 6z gfs matched new euro or close....with 0.5"-0.75" area wide.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 06z GFS shows 0.5-0.75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NAM fail. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 06z gfs 6-8 for the area on a 10-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 GFS is not a bad run for the area. NAM and SREFs took a pretty big step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I think we could trend slightly better. There is still room for improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Based on what we have seen on the 06z models If NW Jersey doesn't fill in today they are looking at only 3-5", NYC 4-7" but Eastern LI 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 its snowing here in sussex county....without the radar filling in. Based on what we have seen on the 06z models If NW Jersey doesn't fill in today they are looking at only 3-5", NYC 4-7" but Eastern LI 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 By late this afternoon i expect the "radar looks crappy" or "storm cancel" posts. It is almost a guarantee during our "bigger" winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 By late this afternoon i expect the "radar looks crappy" or "storm cancel" posts. It is almost a guarantee during our "bigger" winter storms Especially along the NJ coast and maybe LI, where the precip will likely start out as some spotty light rain with temps initially above freezing. Panic will ensue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Especially along the NJ coast and maybe LI, where the precip will likely start out as some spotty light rain with temps initially above freezing. Panic will ensue... ..no panic here..but is that sleet i'm hearing hitting the ground ? temp @ 29.7*...radar looks 'empty'..but light precip continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 nam/sref have been unreliable. the euro showing .7" should make everyone happy. it was better aloft too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 09z WSI RPM snow map out thru 9am Friday and continues to hold to its "less" snow forecast. Most forecast I'm seeing saying 6-10 from NYC up into New England. 90% of this map has that same area less than 6"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 nam/sref have been unreliable. the euro showing .7" should make everyone happy. it was better aloft too Yeah, you can see how the 6z simulated radar is already too far east with the precip shield over the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 What a crazy storm. Bust potential both high and low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Radar looks horrible...bust! :-P Just joking! Radar looks solid actually! Starting to fill in. Keep in mind the donut hole is supposed to be there for now. It will continue to fill as the day goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Yeah, you can see how the 6z simulated radar is already too far east with the precip shield over the Southeast. southeast.gif rad6.gif the nam is also too aggressive with convection well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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