max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Friday is coming in even COLDER this run. Delta, please elaborate? Thanks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Looks like the model is seeing some colder air moving SE...Maybe 5 degrees colder, as said above....also, I have a feeling that the GFS might lay a huge hammer down and be close to the EURO cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Down to near Freezing in Northern Florida by midnight Friday Night...mid to upper 20's down to South Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've seen it said often on this board that the models typically under-estimate the strength and depth of these Arctic airmasses. Is this a possibility for next week's cold as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Western North Carolina foothills might make it back to freezing on Saturday afternoon per this new run...mountains won't be as fortunate. Mid 30's Charlotte to RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I've seen it said often on this board that the models typically under-estimate the strength and depth of these Arctic airmasses. Is this a possibility for next week's cold as well? If anything it's the opposite, some models have a cold bias and often overestimate cold or overestimate the strength of highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 absolutely yes especially if the arctic high comes in as progged (in kchs discussion) at 1055mb, under estimation o the cold air at the SFC is almost a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I Agree Mike, I actually expect them to be about 5-8 maybe 10 degrees colder than shown now, **IF** trends continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 absolutely yes especially if the arctic high comes in as progged (in kchs discussion) at 1055mb, under estimation o the cold air at the SFC is almost a given. Oh wow I thought it was the opposite! Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 yeah, true arctic highs are underestimated at the sfc due to the immense layer of cold dense air, unlike cp or mp air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To be completely honest... I've been a bit gun-shy about next week's cold (low 40s for next Tuesday is what I had this morning...Although I can't deviate too much from the previous met's thoughts for consistency sake). Yes, I know the high is super strong and moves in fast, but how many times this winter have we seen the cold stop just short of our area (talking central AL/GA and southward...). Some of the cold the models are printing out would be the coldest Columbus, GA & surrounding areas have seen in 17 years (Feb. 4, 1996 was the last time we saw a high below freezing at 27 degrees). FWIW, I've had low-mid 40s in the forecast for highs on Friday for the past few mornings I've worked and lows in the mid 20s (low 20s for outlying locations), so this 00Z GFS run of "colder" air isn't all that surprising. However, it'll be interesting to see how cold a lot of locations actually get Friday as that will tell how well the models are handling the cold air masses heading south. If it's as cold as advertised on Friday, then I will definitely drop the hammer on Tuesday (likely our coldest day here) when I work again this weekend. Also, my "gut" is telling me that Columbus & surrounding areas won't be SUPER cold (highs in the mid 30s or lower) and that most of it will likely stay to our north in Tennessee and northern AL/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 -36 at Crane Lake, MN http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:55725.1.99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 IMO GFS has moved toward the EURO with the temps. GFS has really cooled down for not only Friday, but Monday as well. (only out to 18z mon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z GFS came in much colder for next week, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 IMBY, According to the GFS brief warm-up by Sunday afternoon (40 and rain, yippee!), arctic front clearly visible on temp maps across Ohio Valley and into Western Tennessee at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 absolutely yes especially if the arctic high comes in as progged (in kchs discussion) at 1055mb, under estimation o the cold air at the SFC is almost a given. I Agree Mike, I actually expect them to be about 5-8 maybe 10 degrees colder than shown now, **IF** trends continue... It's always a pleasure to see the both of you posting On that note, CAE is riding the EURO according to their long term disco. Highs in the 40's with lows in the 20's currently forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 To be completely honest... I've been a bit gun-shy about next week's cold (low 40s for next Tuesday is what I had this morning...Although I can't deviate too much from the previous met's thoughts for consistency sake). Yes, I know the high is super strong and moves in fast, but how many times this winter have we seen the cold stop just short of our area (talking central AL/GA and southward...). Some of the cold the models are printing out would be the coldest Columbus, GA & surrounding areas have seen in 17 years (Feb. 4, 1996 was the last time we saw a high below freezing at 27 degrees). FWIW, I've had low-mid 40s in the forecast for highs on Friday for the past few mornings I've worked and lows in the mid 20s (low 20s for outlying locations), so this 00Z GFS run of "colder" air isn't all that surprising. However, it'll be interesting to see how cold a lot of locations actually get Friday as that will tell how well the models are handling the cold air masses heading south. If it's as cold as advertised on Friday, then I will definitely drop the hammer on Tuesday (likely our coldest day here) when I work again this weekend. Also, my "gut" is telling me that Columbus & surrounding areas won't be SUPER cold (highs in the mid 30s or lower) and that most of it will likely stay to our north in Tennessee and northern AL/GA. I, admittedly so, usually have a cold bias. However, this is some of the coldest air I have seen as a whole in a long time. Give me a 1040mb+ high over the plains states and I will say for sure we will be in the low to mid 30's during the day. We shall see, I am not gonna lower Friday temp to much yet...I have 43 now, but wouldn't be surprised if its like 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 -24 in Madawaska, Maine. The temperature went below zero on Saturday and has not risen above since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 00z GFS came in much colder for next week, wow. but, no snow or even frozen pcn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 by 12z TUE....CSG to MCN is showing like 13-18 degrees....This run is DEF colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 This is an amazing webcam from Bayfield, Wi. I use to live here, I am from Wisconsin so I know a little about cold weather. This will become the ice road before long that connects Bayfied to Madeline Island. http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-bayfield-inn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Arctic front is crossing the Apps Monday 6z, teens and single digits already building west of the mountains with its eyes on the Carolinas and North Georgia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 by 12z TUE....CSG to MCN is showing like 13-18 degrees....This run is DEF colder Maybe the Euro on 12-30 was not so over the top after all. Delta what will it be for ATL? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 0Z GFS HR 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 0Z GFS HR 120 That looks like a map you would see hour 360...not 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I, admittedly so, usually have a cold bias. However, this is some of the coldest air I have seen as a whole in a long time. Give me a 1040mb+ high over the plains states and I will say for sure we will be in the low to mid 30's during the day. We shall see, I am not gonna lower Friday temp to much yet...I have 43 now, but wouldn't be surprised if its like 40. I have a bit of a warm bias in days 5-7 (probably the Florida boy in me... lol!). Like I said, Friday's cold is going to give us a good bead on whether the models are handling the Arctic cold in our backyard correctly or not. However, the 0Z GFS would certainly cause me to go lower with my forecast temps in the Mon/Tue time period... A 1038 mb high in NW Alabama... Calm winds... = You're more than likely correct with the 30/15 call, but I'd just like to see how Friday plays out before going all-in. BTW, in case people are wondering, Columbus, GA hasn't seen a low below 15 (which is certainly possible based on the 0Z GFS for Tuesday morning) since Jan 24, 2003 when we hit 12 degrees. The last time we saw single digits for a low was all the way back on Dec. 24, 1989 (I was almost 2... ) when we hit 9 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Maybe the Euro on 12-30 was not so over the top after all. Delta what will it be for ATL? Thanks looks like 20's for most of middle and northern GA for Tue...Lows would be teens here, low teens to upper single digits for N GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I had joked about that 0 degrees the Euro was showing the other day, it might have been spot on. But with the current trend, we might have some near 1985 cold in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I am just as impressed by low temps, even without snow, when they occur in the south. Of course I don't wish for busted pipes on no one but we have no control over that no more than damage we see in storms. If it is anomalous, my interest goes very high. Also, with air this cold, any moisture in the atmosphere gets wrung out and we usually have a couple of episodes of microflakes. (The kind they have to turn the radar to high sensitivity mode to see). That beats nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 looks like 20's for most of middle and northern GA for Tue...Lows would be teens here, low teens to upper single digits for N GA Thank you...Did you see that link I posted from Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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