00Z models 12/18/10

[pojrzsho]

I didn't say I was really concerned with it playing out verbatim, was simply expressing my displeasure at the way it was depicted.

I can't tell you how many days of 35* and rain I suffered through here in Richmond the last several years. I f'ing hate them.

I agree. Was just talking about the fact we have 2 weeks to watch that one. To be quite honest, last year in Dec, and this year's Dec so far, have been the most consistent 2 years I've ever seen with cold air. And even for Richmond more snow we've had in a long time before meteorlogical winter.

[psuhoffman]

OK I agree with a lot of the analysis about the setup looking like a lakes cutter early on, but there is a synoptic reason the low moves due east on the GFS, AND the euro for that matter. The models retrograde the block all the way west and south over the souther hudson bay. Now perhaps that is rediculous and unbelievable but that is the reason the low does not cut and is forced under and off the mid atlantic coast. Now retrograding the block that far south may be an error and due to a south bias but the movement of the low is a result of that feature and not simply "typical gfs bias" since the euro is doing the same exact thing for the same reason. Now the crazy bombing of the low and spitting out 10-20" of snow for DC-NYC is probably GFS nonsense but the track of the storm has logical merit based on the pattern. Doesn't mean it is right but also should not be discounted simply as model error.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Im just saying, 156 is snow too...So I suppose your saying between 156 and 168 it switches to rain, Maybe we can clear this up when meteograms come out, but with that track, i dont see a rain changeover.

please stop it's pointless this far out. now i am going to go enjoy the 12" the euro gave me 2 days ago

[jm1220]

At this stage I'll be happy to have my first snowy Christmas since 2002, and if it resembles the insanity we had on Long Island for a few hours that day in 2002, all the better.

[SnowGoose69]

OK I agree with a lot of the analysis about the setup looking like a lakes cutter early on, but there is a synoptic reason the low moves due east on the GFS, AND the euro for that matter. The models retrograde the block all the way west and south over the souther hudson bay. Now perhaps that is rediculous and unbelievable but that is the reason the low does not cut and is forced under and off the mid atlantic coast. Now retrograding the block that far south may be an error and due to a south bias but the movement of the low is a result of that feature and not simply "typical gfs bias" since the euro is doing the same exact thing for the same reason. Now the crazy bombing of the low and spitting out 10-20" of snow for DC-NYC is probably GFS nonsense but the track of the storm has logical merit based on the pattern. Doesn't mean it is right but also should not be discounted simply as model error.

The thing that is a red flag to me is that the GFS is not THAT FAR north of the Euro track yet its overall pattern in Canada and the WATL is less favorable for the MA...that to me means its too far south with the track based on the overall pattern it lays out.

[Ji]

i think the desperation in these threads is dude to everyone saying that winter is over in January and most of February. If we dont get snow now, we may be shutout for the winter

[SnowGoose69]

i think the desperation in these threads is dude to everyone saying that winter is over in January and most of February. If we dont get snow now, we may be shutout for the winter

There is almost always a chance in Feb/Mar and sometimes both with Ninas...I would not worry, especially if we keep the NAO negative frequently.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

<br /><br /><br />

This map is off of the 12Z run.

MDstorm

good catch i deleted them

[earthlight]

OK I agree with a lot of the analysis about the setup looking like a lakes cutter early on

I don't think the setup ever looks like a lakes cutter at all. At 66 hours a strong shortwave moves southeast lowering the heights over the northern tier of the Conus.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f66.gif

The confluence is still strong by 120 hours when the big shortwave enters the SW US.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f120.gif

That upper air pattern doesn't support anything cutting near the Great Lakes if you ask me.

[psuhoffman]

The thing that is a red flag to me is that the GFS is not THAT FAR north of the Euro track yet its overall pattern in Canada and the WATL is less favorable for the MA...that to me means its too far south with the track based on the overall pattern it lays out.

It doesnt look that horrible to me honestly, its not a typical -nao look but the AO is crazy negative and there is general blockyness just not in the "typical" locations. The western ridge axis and amplitude is also fairly good. This is supported by todays NCEP superensembles spitting out some favorable analogs that included a few KU storms. There are a few things working against it but it has way more working for it then the last threat did IMHO. That said I would like to see the GFS trend south in the next few runs or else I would agree that a north trend is a likely problem for DC. However, the Euro may be more correct in its upper level pattern and then its southern track may be more accurate here. Either way this debate is a little silly given the changes that will happen in the runs between now and xmas. Its so far out this is all educated guessing at this point.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

good catch i deleted them

My mistake, and your right its pointless to talk about precip type 150 hours out.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

I don't think the setup ever looks like a lakes cutter at all. At 66 hours a strong shortwave moves southeast lowering the heights over the northern tier of the Conus.

http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f66.gif

The confluence is still strong by 120 hours when the big shortwave enters the SW US.

http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f120.gif

That upper air pattern doesn't support anything cutting near the Great Lakes if you ask me.

I agree, I dont see a lakes cutter being in the cards.

[SACRUS]

[Midlo Snow Maker]

My mistake, and your right its pointless to talk about precip type 150 hours out.

going to be a long week again

[WinterWxLuvr]

I have a hard time reading those maps, and the 24 hour jumps aren't too nice either, but one thing that seems evident is that ridge out in the west.

[psuhoffman]

GGEM certainly doesnt look like a lakes cutter lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

One other note, the GFS ens. mean, while not the bomb of the OP, is still good for accumulating snow across the MA.

[Guest someguy]

GGEM makes a lot of sense

[Guest someguy]

0z euro at 144 looks OK... not a huge low at low

[Guest someguy]

156 hr Low is over western WVA... 2nd Low forming over central NC...

zero 850 line colder here than on 0z GFS .... s of RIC +4c is over CLT so that is way colder

[Guest someguy]

162 hrs

large Low... 2 centers ..one dying over northeast WVA near western MD .... 2nd Low over eastern NC

RIC has moved gone above 0c

DCA -2C

smal area of precip

[Guest someguy]

168hr 1002 low over hatteras ... on the 0z euro all the precip is to the east of the Low and off the coast

500 mb Low does NOT have the trough closing off or going negative

[Kevin Druff]

How far north and west of rvA is the 0c line, Dave?

[Guest someguy]

180 hr 996 Low south of the Benchmark at 70 west and 39N --- NOT a super Bomb like the 0z GFS at 976 --

and the Low is heading due east out to sea at a good clip

[Guest someguy]

How far north and west of rvA is the 0c line, Dave?

+1c

[Kevin Druff]

+1c

Okay. Thanks. So a bit better than the GFS where we warm considerably above freezin for the bulk of the precip.

[VAsnowlvr82]

So whats you take between the GFS and Euro right now? Some kind of a compromise?

180 hr 996 Low south of the Benchmark at 70 west and 39N --- NOT a super Bomb like the 0z GFS at 976 --

and the Low is heading due east out to sea at a good clip

[earthlight]

At 186 hours the phase occurs and the surface low deepens to 988 over the 40/70. Not too shabby to see some sort of agreement at this range. The height field isn't far off from the GFS, it just phases slightly later. That's about all we can say right now given the fragility of the pattern. I'm sure we will all be watching the next few days.

[winter_warlock]

FWIW KMA HAS THE STORM OFF DELMARVA, although i dont know how reliable kma is lol...

[winter_warlock]

At 186 hours the phase occurs and the surface low deepens to 988 over the 40/70. Not too shabby to see some sort of agreement at this range. The height field isn't far off from the GFS, it just phases slightly later. That's about all we can say right now given the fragility of the pattern. I'm sure we will all be watching the next few days.

i agree, 6 days out im just glad most models have the storm on east coast.