Rdd9108 Posted January 8, 2014 Share Posted January 8, 2014 It looks like an inch or less tonight. NAM now has 2 inches for tomorrow night so all models showing this little burst. After the warmup this weekend it looks like the cold comes back next week. that seems to be the pattern this year. Hopefully we can see some blocking so we can see a bigger storm. The teleconnections look good for cold in the coming weeks just need some luck on a track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Great read on Joe DeNardo this morning in the Trib. I believe he is right on about the hype. http://triblive.com/opinion/ericheyl/5374074-74/denardo-polar-eric#axzz2ppXC9W7U I agree with most of it but I'm surprised he never heard of the polar vortex. It should be something well-known to a meteorologist. I've heard it bantered about on this board and others a fair amount. But overall, he's right. I used to be the marketing communications manager for AccuWeather, and I do get, to a point, this stuff. It is the coldest in 20 years. But the hype is out of control. Some of it is due to the media business being so competitive thanks to social media and other web outlets (and one non-negotiable reality here, it IS a business). So they are desperate for eyeballs and ears. It's a lot more competitive than it was during Joe's time. It was also a lot different in approach. The big marketing push for the TV stations in Joe's time was accuracy, and reassurance. TV meteorologists tended to downplay stuff, especially winter storms. Plus, the big promotional catchphrase? "Joe Said It Would". Talk about hype...you couldn't miss the PAT buses with that on the side. But that hype was, of course, a bit different. It was more about promoting Joe as the guy who will give you the straight story and be right. The problem is the rush to draw viewers/listeners/page views has led to some questionable decisions. I would love to know the origin of the polar vortex thing. Maybe an NWS meteorologist mentioned it in an interview at one point and the reporter ran with it. Then everyone piled on. It sounds really impressive. To a scientist, a vortex is air or water in rotation around an axis. Your sink drain is a vortex. But to the public, a vortex is something violent, like a tornado. Then you had members of the media, like ****ing Al Roker, saying the polar vortex was "unprecedented". Ridiculous. Or another guy describing it as "an arctic hurricane." To be fair, and this is being fair, this wasn't everyone in the media doing this. NPR's All Things Considered had Jason Samenow of Capital Weather Gang talk about what it was and what it wasn't and the interviewer obviously took the non-hype path in questioning. That was fantastic. I think in the long run, this hurts a lot more than it helps as far as ratings go. People have a terrible understanding of weather, believing myths anywhere from tornadoes can't hit near rivers to "the weather forecasters are always wrong." You start dropping terms like this on them they think you're inventing things. Finally, I had to chuckle a bit at good old Joe's take on this. The man ALWAYS downplayed everything, even the Blizzard of 93 (had 4-8" the day before the storm). But overall, he is right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 that seems to be the pattern this year. Hopefully we can see some blocking so we can see a bigger storm. The teleconnections look good for cold in the coming weeks just need some luck on a track. I saw a bit of talk about some blocking happening in Feb and/or March. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 I agree with most of it but I'm surprised he never heard of the polar vortex. It should be something well-known to a meteorologist. I've heard it bantered about on this board and others a fair amount. But overall, he's right. I used to be the marketing communications manager for AccuWeather, and I do get, to a point, this stuff. It is the coldest in 20 years. But the hype is out of control. Some of it is due to the media business being so competitive thanks to social media and other web outlets (and one non-negotiable reality here, it IS a business). So they are desperate for eyeballs and ears. It's a lot more competitive than it was during Joe's time. It was also a lot different in approach. The big marketing push for the TV stations in Joe's time was accuracy, and reassurance. TV meteorologists tended to downplay stuff, especially winter storms. Plus, the big promotional catchphrase? "Joe Said It Would". Talk about hype...you couldn't miss the PAT buses with that on the side. But that hype was, of course, a bit different. It was more about promoting Joe as the guy who will give you the straight story and be right. The problem is the rush to draw viewers/listeners/page views has led to some questionable decisions. I would love to know the origin of the polar vortex thing. Maybe an NWS meteorologist mentioned it in an interview at one point and the reporter ran with it. Then everyone piled on. It sounds really impressive. To a scientist, a vortex is air or water in rotation around an axis. Your sink drain is a vortex. But to the public, a vortex is something violent, like a tornado. Then you had members of the media, like ****ing Al Roker, saying the polar vortex was "unprecedented". Ridiculous. Or another guy describing it as "an arctic hurricane." To be fair, and this is being fair, this wasn't everyone in the media doing this. NPR's All Things Considered had Jason Samenow of Capital Weather Gang talk about what it was and what it wasn't and the interviewer obviously took the non-hype path in questioning. That was fantastic. I think in the long run, this hurts a lot more than it helps as far as ratings go. People have a terrible understanding of weather, believing myths anywhere from tornadoes can't hit near rivers to "the weather forecasters are always wrong." You start dropping terms like this on them they think you're inventing things. Finally, I had to chuckle a bit at good old Joe's take on this. The man ALWAYS downplayed everything, even the Blizzard of 93 (had 4-8" the day before the storm). But overall, he is right on. I have a friend who now works at wpxi after interning there. So he always posts news stories on FB. So his story two days ago was, "tune in WPXI as the Polar Vortex grips our area." The way he said it made it sound like it was a new occurrence. Sure it was very cold and the polar vortex did come into the Cpnus but why make it sound like the day after tomorrow. Heres the post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Nice fine coating of Light snow falling. Very tiny flakes but side roads are covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Light snow has been falling for a couple hours now. Looks nice out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Rdd, Perfect example of what I'm talking about. It's a bit ridiculous. "Arctic outbreak grips area as temperatures hit lowest levels in 20 years" would be better as a way to communicate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Rdd, Perfect example of what I'm talking about. It's a bit ridiculous. "Arctic outbreak grips area as temperatures hit lowest levels in 20 years" would be better as a way to communicate it. I wanted to comment on his post, but chose not to. I just thought it was funny that people were hyping this polar vortex like it was a super rare occurence that only happens like every 200 years. Anyway has anyone looked into the threat tonight before we warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 two days ago. (January 7, 05z) A 57 degree temperature drop near Pittsburgh in 24 hours. I haven't seen this much other than Montana or Wyoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 two days ago. (January 7, 05z) A 57 degree temperature drop near Pittsburgh in 24 hours. I haven't seen this much other than Montana or Wyoming 2014_01_07_05z_temp_change.gif Thanks for sharing this, it was a sharp drop, but didn't realize it was that dramatic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1208 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN PENNSYLVANIA... ALLEGHENY RIVER AT PARKER AFFECTING ARMSTRONG AND CLARION COUNTIES ALLEGHENY RIVER AT RIMER AFFECTING ARMSTRONG AND CLARION COUNTIES ALLEGHENY RIVER AT MOSGROVE AFFECTING ARMSTRONG COUNTY ALLEGHENY RIVER AT KITTANNING AFFECTING ARMSTRONG COUNTY ALLEGHENY RIVER AT CLINTON AFFECTING ARMSTRONG COUNTY ALLEGHENY RIVER AT FREEPORT AFFECTING ALLEGHENY...ARMSTRONG AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES ALLEGHENY RIVER AT NATRONA AFFECTING ALLEGHENY AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES ALLEGHENY RIVER AT CW BILL YOUNG DAM AFFECTING ALLEGHENY COUNTY . THE ARCTIC BLAST OF COLD AIR THAT HIT OUR REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF THIS PAST WEEK CAUSED SIGNIFICANT ICE FORMATION WITHIN THE ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. CURRENTLY THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 ICE JAMS ON THE ALLEGHENY RIVER...BUT ALL ARE STABLE AT THIS TIME AND ARE NOT CURRENTLY A DANGER. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL SATURDAY OF UP TO THREE-QUARTERS INCH WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT MELTING OF ICE AND RUNOFF TO CAUSE THE ICE TO BEGIN MOVING ON THE ALLEGHENY RIVER. ONCE THE ICE BEGINS TO MOVE...THERE IS A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR ICE JAM FORMATION ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIVER FROM AROUND THE PARKER AREA SOUTHWARD TO AROUND LOCK 3 C.W. BILL YOUNG NEAR ACMETONIA. ICE JAMS CAN AND DO FORM VERY QUICKLY. ICE JAMS CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BACKWATER RISES AND POSSIBLY FLOODING IN A SHORT SPAN OF TIME BEHIND THE ICE JAM. ALSO...ONCE AN ICE JAM BREAKS...THE SURGE OF WATER MOVING DOWNSTREAM COULD CAUSE FLOODING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SAFETY MESSAGE...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR OR A RIVER FLOOD WARNING BE ISSUED. REPORT ICE JAMS OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 412-262-1988...POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSPITTSBURGH. && PAC003-111708- /O.NEW.KPBZ.FL.A.0004.140112T0500Z-140114T2100Z/ /KTTP1.0.IC.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ 1208 PM EST FRI JAN 10 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ALLEGHENY RIVER AT KITTANNING * FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * AT 11:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.2 FEET. * ICE JAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. * FLOOD STAGE IS 21.0 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 As much as I enjoy winter, this thaw is more than welcome. After that arctic invasion this 40 feels like 50 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 45 feels like 75 after this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling Snowed Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Currently: thunder, lightning, and heavy rain. lol. This is insane and awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Not letting up on this Polar Vortex term just yet...http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/will-the-polar-vortex-return/21894749 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 Wow, just got off the roof taking down Christmas lights just in time. Showers with front just coming by. Winds really gusting over 45 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvfd404 Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Pretty quiet in the forum. Realizing I come here way too often lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Pretty quiet in the forum. Realizing I come here way too often lol Yeah, nothing of much to talk about right now. Looks like the cold starts to reload in a couple of days, but as of now no real threats to track. Probably a couple of clippers coming up next, hopefully we can get some STJ action in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I was just out walking the dog last hour and saw a beautiful bright shooting star in the Southwest sky. It lasted about 4 seconds and left a trail. I just happened to look up in the general area when it went across the sky. What a clear crisp night. Plenty of stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunnykay Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Any information about CG lightning on Saturday morning in the area of Penn Township, Westmoreland County? (eastern suburbs) Neighbor reported thunder and strong lighting flashes mid-morning near our property. We had an animal in standing near a metal gate in our barn that may have been struck, possibly indirectly. Lightning rod wire on barn had one of its insulators blown off the wall; insulator was found on the ground, about 20' from where the animal was found. Any link to a non-subscription site where Saturday AM weather can be reviewed would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Taken from HM facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Any information about CG lightning on Saturday morning in the area of Penn Township, Westmoreland County? (eastern suburbs) Neighbor reported thunder and strong lighting flashes mid-morning near our property. We had an animal in standing near a metal gate in our barn that may have been struck, possibly indirectly. Lightning rod wire on barn had one of its insulators blown off the wall; insulator was found on the ground, about 20' from where the animal was found. Any link to a non-subscription site where Saturday AM weather can be reviewed would help. Did you try emailing the NWS? They might be able to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 I was just out walking the dog last hour and saw a beautiful bright shooting star in the Southwest sky. It lasted about 4 seconds and left a trail. I just happened to look up in the general area when it went across the sky. What a clear crisp night. Plenty of stars. Wonder if you saw this one: http://www.amsmeteors.org/fireball_event/2014/94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yea it stinks the NAO is going positive now....might be awhile before something to track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Any information about CG lightning on Saturday morning in the area of Penn Township, Westmoreland County? (eastern suburbs) Neighbor reported thunder and strong lighting flashes mid-morning near our property. We had an animal in standing near a metal gate in our barn that may have been struck, possibly indirectly. Lightning rod wire on barn had one of its insulators blown off the wall; insulator was found on the ground, about 20' from where the animal was found. Any link to a non-subscription site where Saturday AM weather can be reviewed would help. Nothing official, but I can confirm seeing some flashes of ligthening and a rumble or 2 of thunder Saturday morning between 8:30am and 9:00am. I thought I was just crazy at first. Probably a good starting point as previously mentioned by Jamie would be to contact the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Taken from HM facebook page. It doesn't seem like we have 31 inches this year but Ill take it. I would guess we should hit above average for snowfall this year. This weather is crazy its almost 60 the one day then drops to -10 then back to the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yea it stinks the NAO is going positive now....might be awhile before something to track.... Looks like a slow week for sure. I think by MLK day we should start getting more active. We don't necessarily need a -NAO here, and in some cases it can actually force the storm track to far east but without it we will run the risk of storms going to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 It doesn't seem like we have 31 inches this year but Ill take it. I would guess we should hit above average for snowfall this year. This weather is crazy its almost 60 the one day then drops to -10 then back to the 50s. Yeah I agree. I think it feels like less because of the transient nature of the patterns this season. We get a 1-3, 2-4 or 4-6 then its gone a couple days later. (not complaining just my observation) With it looking likely for a couple more shots at an arctic outbreak, I'm holding out hopes for a storm to ride the boundary similar to the last one, just further east to get us into the heavier snow. A nice 6-8 falling with temps falling into the teens followed by single digits would be fun. Of course I'll take snow any way we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 13, 2014 Share Posted January 13, 2014 Yeah I agree. I think it feels like less because of the transient nature of the patterns this season. We get a 1-3, 2-4 or 4-6 then its gone a couple days later. (not complaining just my observation) With it looking likely for a couple more shots at an arctic outbreak, I'm holding out hopes for a storm to ride the boundary similar to the last one, just further east to get us into the heavier snow. A nice 6-8 falling with temps falling into the teens followed by single digits would be fun. Of course I'll take snow any way we can get it. im with you, all I want is just one storm with atleast some prolonged heavy snow. The december storm further north wasnt bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 So I was looking at the models and the Euro seems to have the energy further west and slower which would bode well for us. This could be something to keep an eye on for a few inches especially with that amped up PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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