Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Not surprising, the 12z Canadian continues to show a non-event for the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 So far the 12z Euro looks almost identical to 0z out to hour 60. Edit: Yep, 2 to 4 inches of snow across much of TN by hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z Euro text output (falling with 850s and 2m below freezing): Tri Cities .21 Knoxville .37 Chattanooga .28 Crossville .33 Nashville .07 Jackson .22 Memphis .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Interesting that Knoxville is the big winner. I have seen the modeling lessen the amounts for NE TN. I wonder if the modeling is picking up on some downsloping for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Interesting that Knoxville is the big winner. I have seen the modeling lessen the amounts for NE TN. I wonder if the modeling is picking up on some downsloping for our area? Knowing Knoxville, you can safely cut any modeled QPF totals in half. I find it hard to believe we will do better than Crossville or TRI, I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Knowing Knoxville, you can safely cut any modeled QPF totals in half. I find it hard to believe we will do better than Crossville or TRI, I guess we'll see. And I find it hard to believe that Chattanooga does better than KTRI or KBNA. If we do get 2-3 inches, we have a good shot at a subzero temp on Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Keep in mind also that those Euro text amounts are sums of 6 hour chunks of QPF. I don't know exactly how the given temperature gets associated with each of those 6 hour periods (at the beginning or end?). So the for example BNA had .29 fall with a temp listed that was slightly above freezing. Did the temp actually hit freezing sometime during that period and some of that fall as snow? Maybe someone with more knowledge of the Euro can answer that. What I listed was just verbatim the QPF associated with freezing periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I believe text data shows the snapshot of the temperature profile at that time and the qpf is from the previous 6 hour time period......... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Keep in mind also that those Euro text amounts are sums of 6 hour chunks of QPF. I don't know exactly how the given temperature gets associated with each of those 6 hour periods (at the beginning or end?). So the for example BNA had .29 fall with a temp listed that was slightly above freezing. Did the temp actually hit freezing sometime during that period and some of that fall as snow? Maybe someone with more knowledge of the Euro can answer that. What I listed was just verbatim the QPF associated with freezing periods. I am fairly confident that the temp is at that exact timeframe and the qpf is for the 6 hours prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I believe text data shows the snapshot of the temperature profile at that time and the qpf is from the previous 6 hour time period......... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Ah ok, that is good to know. So the posted totals are a best case scenario with the possibility that some of that fell above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Ah ok, that is good to know. So the posted totals are a best case scenario with the possibility that some of that fell above freezing. Yep, that is the way I understand it as well. Snapshot of temp and preceding precip included. It does look like on the Euro and the GFS that the moisture is "caught" by the arctic boundary(?) just after Memphis. I think the cold air crashes into this one. This type of front is a completely different animal than what we are used to. Seems unusual(but not improbable) that rain is followed by record breaking cold w/ no winter event to precede it. My interpretation is that this begins as rain and is quickly changed to snow with every ounce of moisture getting wrung out of the air. I would "guess" 1-3" amounts which are widespread throughout the valley. MRX wrote an excellent piece this AM, out-of-the-park good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It was one of the best AFD I've ever read out of MRX. For years they'd have had a paragraph for the entire long range. It mentions my area for "significant" accumulations. That's normally 4+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Don't look now, but the 18z NAM is juicing up the snow machine at hour 51 relative to previous runs. 4 to 5 inches in northern TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NAM is buying into the GFS 1008 looks like its going almost over Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It was one of the best AFD I've ever read out of MRX. For years they'd have had a paragraph for the entire long range. It mentions my area for "significant" accumulations. That's normally 4+ inches. John I haven't read the AFD yet but I feel confident you will get 4-5 with this setup along with all of the plateau. Crossville will do better than TRI, Knoxville and Nashville. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 18z NAM snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 18z NAM snow What web address do you pull that from? Look at the rain/snow shadow in NE TN...east to west fronts do that. I would guess this fills in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 What web address do you pull that from? Look at the rain/snow shadow in NE TN...east to west fronts do that. I would guess this fills in. That came from the model center, which is probably a no no, so I'll replace it with Earl's once his updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That came from the model center, which is probably a no no, so I'll replace it with Earl's once his updates. Looked like one from NCEP. Thought I might have missed a free site. Wasn't trying to imply it was bootlegged. Honestly, you all sharing a map or two is why I am getting ready to use the model center. Good advertisement FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looked like one from NCEP. Thought I might have missed a free site. Wasn't trying to imply it was bootlegged. Honestly, you all sharing a map or two is why I am getting ready to use the model center. Good advertisement FWIW. totally worth it, updates faster than any other site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 totally worth it, updates faster than any other site StormVista updates about as fast and has full Euro but the maps aren't nearly as pretty and the navigation isn't as slick. Model Center is totally worth 10 bucks a month, and I'd be willing to pay more if they'd flesh out the Euro maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Briefing PowerPoint from JKL: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/jkl/ConferenceCallBriefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Earl's 18z NAM map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 If I somehow manage to get 4 inches out of this I will be at my average for the season and will consider this winter a raging success. Probably shouldn't get my hopes up though heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=MEG&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Mem disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 MRX: 000 FXUS64 KMRX 032109 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 400 PM EST FRI JAN 3 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... SOME AIR MASS MODERATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES W-SW. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH CALM WINDS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE TEENS IN MOST SPOTS. CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO DEVIATE FROM A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS ADVECT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IT REMAINS SHALLOW...BELOW 850 MB...SO WILL ONLY SHOW INCREASING CLOUDS WITH NO PRECIP. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE NEXT SYSTEM IS STEAMING ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...THEN THE FRONT WITH THE RAIN/WIND/SNOW WILL MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND SWALLOW UP THE AREA IN COLD AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOULD BE PRETTY QUICK AS THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG. FOR MONDAY THE VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA...WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES COMING VERY LOW IN THE TROPOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKING TO BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME SNOW SHOWERS GENERATED. LOOKS LIKE THE SLIGHTEST LIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THIS ALSO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LONG DURATION UPSLOPE EVENT FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT--THE MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...BUT WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO LOW...IT SHOULD ACCUMULATE STEADILY OVER THIS PERIOD. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...GENERALLY KEEPING VALLEY LOCATIONS IN TN 1-2 INCHES...AND 1-3 IN VALLEYS IN VA. CAPPING MOUNTAIN AMOUNTS AT ABOUT 8 INCHES IN THE SMOKIES FOR NOW. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE EXTREMELY COLD NATURE OF THIS AIR MASS. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--60+ HOURS BELOW FREEZING. GOING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RACING THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY LOOKS WEAKER IN THE MODELS TODAY AS MORE ENERGY IS FOCUSING WEST IN THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. JUST GOING WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD SURFACE TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING...HAVING TO MENTION FREEZING RAIN...BUT AGAIN POPS WILL BE LIGHT. KEEPING SOME LIGHT POPS IN FOR FRIDAY SINCE MOISTURE STILL HANGING AROUND. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Whoever is writing for MoTown today is doing an incredible job. Very detailed. Covered all major upcoming events. Seems like they are buying the fact the cold air catches the front and based on amounts, looks like they blended the NAM and GFS. I would suspect a SWS goes up tonight or early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 That NAM map is odd in giving the highest elevations along the plateau the least amount of snow. I suspect from MRX this will be another WSW in the mountains, WWA elsewhere. 4-8 in the mountains, 2-4 Plateau, 1-3 NE TN/SW VA, 1-2 Central Valley and south. Middle Tennessee, Nashville seems to be going 2-4 along the KY border, 1-3 elsewhere. This will probably mean a Winter Storm Watch soon for the 2-4 areas in the BNA CWA. Memphis I expect a Winter Storm Watch for at least NW TN soon as well. 3-5 in NW TN, 1-3 towards SW TN/N.Miss. 1-3 may also meet winter storm criteria for Mem/N.Miss. N. Alabama probably around 1 inch, maybe 2 in the NE Plateau areas there. I could see them issuing a winter storm watch for this, at minimum I expect a WWA and possibly wind chill products for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Nashville disco excerpt.... ...ANYWHERE FROM ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES ANDSNOWIER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. A VERY COLD BLAST OF ARCTIC AIRALONG WITH WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE MAJORCONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 4 INCHESOF SNOWFALL AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITHWIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN ON SUNDAY MORNINGAROUND 6 AM IN THE NW COUNTIES...THEN REACH THE PLATEAU AROUNDNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL DRASTICALLY SUNDAY MORNING...STARTINGOUT AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE MORNING AND FALLING INTO THE TEENS BYSUNDAY NIGHT. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW (ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE) ISEXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NW AROUND NOON AND REACH THE PLATEAUBETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THENORTHERN MOST COUNTIES AND ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRALPLATEAU...WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF THIS AREA CANEXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE SOUTHERN TIER OFCOUNTIES SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOWFALL...AROUND 1 INCH.TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS ONCE THE WINTRY PRECIPITATIONBEGINS. MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY CAREFUL ON BRIDGES ANDOVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS OFTEN DEVELOP FIRST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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