WeatherFox Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 nothing's changed since yesterday. still looks like it's going to be a miss with an unfavorable pattern Agree. But it is anyone's educated guess in the long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 At least Thanksgiving looks chilly. I don't remember a Thanksgiving in the 30s for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 At least Thanksgiving looks chilly. I don't remember a Thanksgiving in the 30s for years. Agree! I really don't remember the last below normal thanksgiving. Plus I love a cold holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 At least Thanksgiving looks chilly. I don't remember a Thanksgiving in the 30s for years. last year was a torch. I remember being outside with no coat. With the dry weather, we may have back to back months here with less than .50 inch of precip. Simply amazing for the time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The gfs shows a cold T-day and Black Friday. Anyone planning on waiting hours in line Thursday night or Friday morning better bundle up as lows could be in the teens in spots. I can't remember the last time teens were forecast for November, that's very cold even for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It would be interesting if there was a small band of snowfall, perhaps 10-25 miles wide on the northern edge of the storm. Thermals look a bit torchy however and would not allow for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The gfs shows a cold T-day and Black Friday. Anyone planning on waiting hours in line Thursday night or Friday morning better bundle up as lows could be in the teens in spots. I can't remember the last time teens were forecast for November, that's very cold even for January. Not that I ever do it, but those days are pretty much over with stores opening Thanksgiving PM instead of early Friday AM-not to mention you can get the same deals online without ever leaving your living room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I really was hoping for a blizzard on Thanksgiving just in spite of all those stores that are opening that day. I think it's so wrong and that any store that does that has no respect for any of it's employees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 12z GEFS mean is super juiced and well west of the OP. It looks like the 00z Euro. 1.75"+ mark makes it to JFK. 1.5"+ mark makes it to KMMU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thanks for your observations everyone. I don't know whether this is the best place to ask. Apologies if the question is lame. Amateurish of amateur here. But how the rain/snow line is determined? Or how do we know from the model maps that precipitation is rain or snow ? Is it based on the 0 line in the 500mb map? All I understood from these forum was that it is not a single factor which determines that. Water temperature in Atlantic, surface temp or even just being Oct or Nov has been some reasons I've seen. For example, in this model run for this storm ( http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013112018&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=177 ), how do I know that the 0.1in precipitation is going to be snow or rain over central NJ? Please delete/move it to a different if not appropriate here. Thanks. You need to look at temperatures at different levels. Surface, 925 mb, 850 mb, even 700 mb in some cases. Warm layers can prevent precipitation from being snow all the way up to that level. If its above freezing at a higher level, but then below freezing near the ground, you could get sleet or freezing rain. Soundings are really the best tool if you just want to focus on a particular point. Keep in mind that precipitation on the model maps is usually what fell in the PREVIOUS 3 or 6 hours (usually 6), while temperatures listed are the INSTANTANEOUS temperatures (i.e., the temps at the end of those 3 or 6 hour periods). This means you need to look at temperatures both at the beginning and end of those periods to get an idea of what kind of precipitation may fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I really was hoping for a blizzard on Thanksgiving just in spite of all those stores that are opening that day. I think it's so wrong and that any store that does that has no respect for any of it's employees. I hate working holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The GEFS mean has lows in the lower teens for the NW burbs for the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 12z NAVGEM at 144hr has a 1003mb low south of LI and east of DE. Mostly rain near the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The GEFS mean phases both streams at hour 150. Something that the op is insisting won't happen. Could be because unlike the op, the ensembles never close off the southern stream wave at 500mb down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Seeing the Navgem and the gefs amped up tells me that the gfs op is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Seeing the Navgem and the gefs amped up tells me that the gfs op is wrong. The NAVGEM phases the streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The phase might be possible given the amount of ridging out west. It would be a cold rain but very beneficial. The timing would suck for a lot of people though but I still would like to see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z GGEM not buying it, but it does bring precip to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looking at the 12z GEFS individual members. Still quite a large spread, especially in terms of timing. The fast movers are super amped in general while the slower moving evolutions look closer to the op. P001 I believe would be a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Look how much slower the JMA is with the progression of the southern stream. Most of the guidance has the trough hundreds of miles further east at the same hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The 12z GGEM actually has some snow for the city north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z euro out to hr 120, doubt it goes further east this run. Looks to be another rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The Euro is phasing at hour 126. Looks super amped, I bet this will be an inland runner if I had to guess. If only we had a high to the north and a fresh cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Precip beginning Tuesday afternoon. One consolidated low over Georgia. Northern areas would start with some frozen or freezing precip. By hour 138 it's pouring rain up the whole coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 hr 138 very heavy rain for the area. Its 100% rain up and down the coast, very little preciep on the cold side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Sub 996 mb low right off the NJ coastline. This is going to show over 2" of rain for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 996 goes just east of nyc into sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 As the first low goes by, moderate precip is still over the region with temperatures beginning to crash. NW areas look to get decent back end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 At hour 156 we're still in light to moderate precip with the 850mb freezing line about to clear the twin forks. Has to be taken with a grain of salt but still a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 As the first low goes by, moderate precip is still over the region with temperatures beginning to crash. NW areas look to get decent back end snows. Incorrect 850's don't crash till after hr 150 and surface is still in PA at hr 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.