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North Indian Ocean Cyclone season 2013


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The last track map I took and plotted onto Google Earth so everyone can see where this Cyclone is heading. Looks like the city of Brahmapur.

 

 

Considering it has currently deviated about 50 miles to the south of that track, with a 6hr heading of 285, I think landfall will be further south the coast, closer to Srikakulam

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Considering it has currently deviated about 50 miles to the south of that track, with a 6hr heading of 285, I think landfall will be further south the coast, closer to Srikakulam

 

O, that far! Looks like in addition to surge, the mountains just a little bit inland will really take a beating with heavy rain. Terrain between 2000-4000ft.

Mudslides, rock slides will likely be common with this system. 

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7.3 886.6 +0.0 149.0 7.3 7.6 7.6

 

The CIMISS ADT has been a bit more conservative....I notice both it and the NOAA ADT has been fluctuating wildly in the last few hours - at this level of intensity perhaps the automated algorithm begins to break down?

 

 

                     UW - CIMSS                    

              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      

                  ADT-Version 8.1.5               

         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----

     Date :  11 OCT 2013    Time :   190000 UTC

      Lat :   16:58:00 N     Lon :   87:01:06 E

     CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#

                6.8     7.1     7.1

 

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The CIMISS ADT has been a bit more conservative....I notice both it and the NOAA ADT has been fluctuating wildly in the last few hours - at this level of intensity perhaps the automated algorithm begins to break down?

 

 

                     UW - CIMSS                    

              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      

                  ADT-Version 8.1.5               

         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----

     Date :  11 OCT 2013    Time :   190000 UTC

      Lat :   16:58:00 N     Lon :   87:01:06 E

     CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#

                6.8     7.1     7.1

 

Yeah I'd love to see a "true" intensity over time chart with storms this powerful, as slight, short-lived environmental permutations probably have huge impacts on the actual strength of the system 

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Yeah I'd love to see a "true" intensity over time chart with storms this powerful, as slight, short-lived environmental permutations probably have huge impacts on the actual strength of the system 

 

 

Well, the real long-term answer is affordable, persistent UAV reconnaissance of storms in all basins.

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The CIMISS ADT has been a bit more conservative....I notice both it and the NOAA ADT has been fluctuating wildly in the last few hours - at this level of intensity perhaps the automated algorithm begins to break down?

 

 

                     UW - CIMSS                    

              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE      

                  ADT-Version 8.1.5               

         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm      

             ----- Current Analysis -----

     Date :  11 OCT 2013    Time :   190000 UTC

      Lat :   16:58:00 N     Lon :   87:01:06 E

     CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.8 / 925.1mb/134.8kt

             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#

                6.8     7.1     7.1

 

 

Maybe because the eye is so small and the satellite resolution rather poor in that area, the eye temperature is not being well measured?

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Maybe because the eye is so small and the satellite resolution rather poor in that area, the eye temperature is not being well measured?

 

  Probably a good guess; speaking of same:

 

2013OCT11 190000  7.3  886.6   +0.0  149.0  7.3 7.6 7.6  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF    4.64 -81.25  EYE     16 IR  44.9   17.04  -87.03 

2013OCT11 193000  7.3  886.6   +0.0  149.0  7.2 6.3 5.3  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  -64.56 -78.29  EMBC     N/A   44.9   17.46  -86.80 

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Well, the real long-term answer is affordable, persistent UAV reconnaissance of storms in all basins.

Given the impacts that the environment has on its member states, I wonder why the UN isn't more active in sponsoring that type of surveillance and research (sorry, this is off-topic I guess)

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  Probably a good guess; speaking of same:

 

2013OCT11 190000  7.3  886.6   +0.0  149.0  7.3 7.6 7.6  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF    4.64 -81.25  EYE     16 IR  44.9   17.04  -87.03 

2013OCT11 193000  7.3  886.6   +0.0  149.0  7.2 6.3 5.3  0.7T/6hr   ON  OFF  -64.56 -78.29  EMBC     N/A   44.9   17.46  -86.80 

Haha, the eye temp dropped 69.5c in 30 minutes, that would be some type of open ocean weakening record.

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Haha, the eye temp dropped 69.5c in 30 minutes, that would be some type of open ocean weakening record.

 

 

Well, in the 1930 image the eywall convection seems to have warmed quite a bit, but the eye itself looks to have suddenly wobbled back north - I suspect the algorithm simply doesn't have the eye in the right place.

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