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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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I have a question for you Mets. I am trying to figure out what my annual snowfall might be. The closest town that

might have reliable data is Plymouth NH about 8 miles to my NNE as the crow flies. They average 74" and elevation is 610 feet. I am 480 feet higher. Is there any formula as to how much snowfall increases per 1000 feet gain?

Thanks

Gene

 

No, not really, or at least none that I'm aware of. Although snowfall will generally increase with elevation, there are a lot of other things to consider besides just altitude or latitude. One biggie is being on the east or west slope of a mountain range. With the possible exception of the northern Green Mountains where there's a lot of westerly upslope powder, eastern slopes tend to do better in New England as most of our snow occurs in a pre-warm frontal situation with a low level wind flow that has a significant easterly component. The east slope will upslope and get some enhancement, while western slopes will get shadowed in this setup. Eastern slopes also hold the cold better in a WAA event as well, so they will have a harder time changing over and melting snow. Case in point, 1400' on the west slope of the Berkshires definitely does not get quite as much snow as 1400' on the east slope (i.e. Lenox vs. West Chesterfield), and I'd imagine the same is true in a lot of other locales in New England.

 

With regards to the northern Greens, even if the western slopes get more snow, most of it is high ratio powder that has little staying power compared to the synoptic stuff. I'm pretty sure Bolton Valley at 2,200' on the west slope of the northern Greens gets more snow overall than Coles Pond does in the NE Kingdom, but Coles Pond definitely wins in the snow pack department.

 

If I had to make a guess, your location probably averages 90-95" a year. Plus, you have good snow pack retention. The 74" for Plymouth seems a little low. Somehow I thought they were closer to 80-82" a year.

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Yes. And I moved from 530' to 510' this year lol. :(

 

Uhh, That's right, I remember now, Sam said the same thing when he was their that it was a snowhole

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Yes. And I moved from 530' to 510' this year lol. :(

Oh man, you just sacrificed like a tenth of a degree. You'll now be like 32.08F while your old location is 32.0F...that's a game changer :lol:

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Thanks guys for your answers to my snowfall question. One thing I can say is my area up to Plymouth really holds onto the cold air. I have a valley just to my east that goes NNE towards Plymouth up the the Pemigewasset River towards Waterville and Loon. Cold air seems to love to come down the Pemi Valley into my area. In winter the warm air floods to my west but many times my high temp is right after fropa. I'll stay 33-35F while everyone else is in the 40's. Its nice many times for snow retention but can be a drag in the spring when everyone seems to warm but me.

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wxeyeNH, 

I've been wondering the same thing for my cabin which also is at the same 1100' elevation. I was guessing it might be around 100".

Waterville Valley is 6 miles north of me averages 148/152" but obviously there the elevation and orographics. I'm also on the western side of Mt. Weetamoo, so I prolly get shadowed too. So in reality I'm probably more like 90".

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wxeyeNH, 

I've been wondering the same thing for my cabin which also is at the same 1100' elevation. I was guessing it might be around 100".

Waterville Valley is 6 miles north of me averages 148/152" but obviously there the elevation and orographics. I'm also on the western side of Mt. Weetamoo, so I prolly get shadowed too. So in reality I'm probably more like 90".

MarkO, it seems to me that snowfall increases markedly just north of the Campton Exit on Rt 93. I am speaking of orographic flurries/squalls. Many times heading north on Rt 93 it is doing nothing in Plymouth but snowing and sticking in the Lincoln area. So exact location (besides elevation) makes a big difference once you get into the Southern Whites.

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By Campton exit, do you mean exit 28? I've seen instances where it's not sticking in the Campton center down at 600', but it is at the cabin. The 500' elevation helps. This past Memorial day weekend was an example. The folks in town did not know it had snowed. I picked up about an inch of mashed potatoes but my friend on Mt. Weetamoo at 1800' got at least 4".

 

I found your house on Google Earth based on the info on your webpage. I'm sure you experience the same thing compared to down by the lake.

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By Campton exit, do you mean exit 28? I've seen instances where it's not sticking in the Campton center down at 600', but it is at the cabin. The 500' elevation helps. This past Memorial day weekend was an example. The folks in town did not know it had snowed. I picked up about an inch of mashed potatoes but my friend on Mt. Weetamoo at 1800' got at least 4".

 

I found your house on Google Earth based on the info on your webpage. I'm sure you experience the same thing compared to down by the lake.

Yes, exit 28. Many times my 600 foot elevation makes a huge difference from Newfound Lake. Memorial Day weekend we lost power, had tree damage and (now I can't remember) I think about 3" of snow. The area around Newfound Lake barely had anything. I always seem to run a few degrees cooler then Dendrite 20 miles to my south and somewhat lower.

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Pics from tonight as the moon rose over Mt. Mansfield. There is a nice overlook on the east side of Winooski (east of 89). Unfortunately a thin veil of clouds and some haze made it a little less than optimal but still cool to see.

 

 

post-139-0-20405500-1379733790_thumb.jpg

post-139-0-59362900-1379733820_thumb.jpg

post-139-0-58344600-1379772279_thumb.jpg

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Awesome photos as always...your stuff is quality!

 

Thank you I just have to figure out how to get the disc of the moon's details with the landscape (instead of those being blown out). Another issue was the high cirrus and haze. I should have done it the night before.

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We have had some solid wind gusts here in the CPV today so far. I would say a few topped 40 mph and that is backed up by a neighbor who has some branches down.

 

The good ol' southerly flow.  Just wait till we get a thaw in January with a strong low cutting west of us and your mixing the southerly low level jet down into the valley.  It'll feel like the entire Champlain Valley is about to be blown north into Canada....meanwhile, east of the Spine will be like 15 degrees colder and calm under an inversion, lol.

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The good ol' southerly flow.  Just wait till we get a thaw in January with a strong low cutting west of us and your mixing the southerly low level jet down into the valley.  It'll feel like the entire Champlain Valley is about to be blown north into Canada....meanwhile, east of the Spine will be like 15 degrees colder and calm under an inversion, lol.

 

LOL yeah I love high wind events so I am excited for something like that. I figured this happens quite a bit around here.

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LOL yeah I love high wind events so I am excited for something like that. I figured this happens quite a bit around here.

 

You may want to chase some western slope downslope wind events then this winter.  Anytime we get a strong SE H85 wind they usually mix that down on the western slopes.  There have been some whopper wind events in recent years. 

 

These are from the December 2010 downslope wind event on the western slopes.

 

http://blogs.burlingtonfreepress.com/weather/2010/12/01/howling-dangerous-winds-out-there/

 

"Home and business owners in Vermont as still picking up the pieces after a ferocious wind storm swept through the state Wednesday. Wind speeds recorded Wednesday included 103 mph atop Mount Mansfield; 90 mph in Cambridge; 73 mph in Hanksville; 66 mph in East Jericho; and 53 mph in South Burlington.

 

By Friday morning, about 5,500 Vermont homes and businesses still had no electricity, most in eastern Chittenden County, the Burlington Free Press reports. The National Weather Service reports it was not a tornado that caused the damage.

 

Tornadoes touch down in Vermont, but rarely. Wednesday’s storm was a classic downslope wind event caused by the collision of warm and cold fronts, the weather service reports. Such storms happen two or three times a year in Vermont and typically hammer towns in the western shadow of the Green Mountains. This storm went deeper into the Champlain Valley than is normally customary in a downslope event."

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You may want to chase some western slope downslope wind events then this winter.  Anytime we get a strong SE H85 wind they usually mix that down on the western slopes.  There have been some whopper wind events in recent years. 

 

These are from the December 2010 downslope wind event on the western slopes.

 

http://blogs.burlingtonfreepress.com/weather/2010/12/01/howling-dangerous-winds-out-there/

 

"Home and business owners in Vermont as still picking up the pieces after a ferocious wind storm swept through the state Wednesday. Wind speeds recorded Wednesday included 103 mph atop Mount Mansfield; 90 mph in Cambridge; 73 mph in Hanksville; 66 mph in East Jericho; and 53 mph in South Burlington.

 

By Friday morning, about 5,500 Vermont homes and businesses still had no electricity, most in eastern Chittenden County, the Burlington Free Press reports. The National Weather Service reports it was not a tornado that caused the damage.

 

Tornadoes touch down in Vermont, but rarely. Wednesday’s storm was a classic downslope wind event caused by the collision of warm and cold fronts, the weather service reports. Such storms happen two or three times a year in Vermont and typically hammer towns in the western shadow of the Green Mountains. This storm went deeper into the Champlain Valley than is normally customary in a downslope event."

 

I definitely will be doing that if the setup is there.

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Mount Washington claimed another hiker this week...deadliest mountain in the east:

From the Observer's Comments:

"As you may be well aware, Mount Washington claimed another life this past Thursday evening, when a 25-year-old man lost his footing and fell while wandering off the Tuckerman Ravine trail to get a closer look at the waterfalls that cascade over the Headwall. Following a massive response by several search and rescues groups and volunteers and an unbelievable extraction via a New Hampshire Air National Guard Black Hawk, all efforts were sadly unable to revive the man."

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Mount Washington claimed another hiker this week...deadliest mountain in the east:

From the Observer's Comments:

"As you may be well aware, Mount Washington claimed another life this past Thursday evening, when a 25-year-old man lost his footing and fell while wandering off the Tuckerman Ravine trail to get a closer look at the waterfalls that cascade over the Headwall. Following a massive response by several search and rescues groups and volunteers and an unbelievable extraction via a New Hampshire Air National Guard Black Hawk, all efforts were sadly unable to revive the man."

Fool. Tuckerman Ravine Trail is by far the easiest ravine trail I've taken, but wander just a bit off trail like this guy and you're asking for a lesson in gravity.

Looks like my plans for tomorrow in the mountains will have to be scuttled - appears to be pretty much a grayout for the entire day with steady showers. No thanks - I'll spend the day in my workshop instead.

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Mount Washington claimed another hiker this week...deadliest mountain in the east:

From the Observer's Comments:

"As you may be well aware, Mount Washington claimed another life this past Thursday evening, when a 25-year-old man lost his footing and fell while wandering off the Tuckerman Ravine trail to get a closer look at the waterfalls that cascade over the Headwall. Following a massive response by several search and rescues groups and volunteers and an unbelievable extraction via a New Hampshire Air National Guard Black Hawk, all efforts were sadly unable to revive the man."

Finally hiked Washington for the first time last weekend...loved it. It was a perfect day too which made it all the better. 65 and sunny at the bottom. 45 and sunny on the peak. Had a chance to tour the observatory and the wind tower too. Awesome experience....and the hike wasn't too difficult at all.

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The good ol' southerly flow.  Just wait till we get a thaw in January with a strong low cutting west of us and your mixing the southerly low level jet down into the valley.  It'll feel like the entire Champlain Valley is about to be blown north into Canada....meanwhile, east of the Spine will be like 15 degrees colder and calm under an inversion, lol.

 

We don't need any lows cutting west......... ;)

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Bad wknd for NH as two cyclists were also killed.

Heading up to crawford notch nect wknd to try some new trekking poles. Never had them before and I think we'll be saying what took so long. Looks like great stretch of weather coming up.

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Powder go to the top of Mansfield this evening and let us know if some flakes fly :)

I'll be riding a 4-wheeler to the top at 8am in the morning. Doesn't look like snow till after 3-6z tonight when temps really drop.

NWS mentioned snow mixing in above 2000ft tonight...

1239432_10151590742692382_2125516821_n.j

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Banacos destroying dreams of flurries at the summit. I'm hopeful for some rime icing, haha.

"Near term /until 8 am Monday morning/... as of 712 PM EDT Sunday...isolated showers remain across northern zones per composite reflectivity at 2306z...mainly across the northern Adirondacks into the northern Green Mountains will maintain chance probability of precipitation for the northern mountains overnight with slight chance of a shower/sprinkle in the northern valleys where drying planetary boundary layer will generally yield virga. Temperatures do drop below freezing at Summit level during the pre-dawn hours. Inspection of latest NAM/rap model soundings suggests saturated cloud layer is not deep or cold enough to support much in the way of ice crystals. Therefore...will be difficult to see any Summit flurries this time around...but with mountains obscured could see some light icing at Summit level with supercooled cloud water. Northwest winds 5-10 miles per hour and mostly cloudy skies persist overnight...which should preclude fog formation. Overnight lows below 2000ft elevation will generally range from the upper 30s to lower 40s. &&"

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Different story imo in whites. Auto road profile colder ... 30.3 at 4k amd 24 at summit, w radar echos showing upslope n component more favorable for nh upslope precip. Nothing huge atm but i bet mountains are getting white right now, even if its a D-2 in nothern whites

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