Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Oh Dear God..just when we don't want it..as we move into fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Oh Dear God..just when we don't want it..as we move into fall The D10 op Euro brings the ridge east. Hmm. We'll see if that verifies lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 We may have a one day burst of warmth perhaps at that time, but then it should relax a bit after. Sept may start out warm, but we need to watch any tropical forcing that may try to pop a ridge over AK. It should also be known that Sept and Oct temps are highly influenced by tropical systems in both Atlantic and Pacific basins. Recurving TCs in the Pacific, recurving Atlantic systems causing a transient -NAO, and also any storm phasing with a digging trough over the lakes all can influence temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 Why the negative thoughts? That outlook matches your avatar nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 25, 2013 Share Posted August 25, 2013 Kevin expects 96/72 8/31 and 40s on 9/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 I posted about watching ridging in the NW Canada area several days ago. Models still have it just after hr 240. As been discussed, every now and then operational runs have tried to hint at cold shots coming into the CONUS around this time. They are probably right, but of course details about location and intensity are up for grabs. The images above certainly don't scream chilly, but it's likely later into the first week of Sept and just beyond where the CONUS will see it's first real shot of cooler air. Although MJO progs disagree in the intensity of the wave, they all try to push us into P8-P1. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2013 Author Share Posted August 26, 2013 We'll need that to happen to get out cane up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Euro op with the cooldown still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Euro op with the cooldown still. Breathlessly awaiting ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Breathlessly awaiting ensembles Probably will not be as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Probably will not be as robust.Pretty much impossible to get the ens as cold as that run...dayum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Pretty much impossible to get the ens as cold as that run...dayum. lol like mid-20s at MWN and low-mid 30s on Mansfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 lol like mid-20s at MWN and low-mid 30s on Mansfield.That ULL is nearly 30dm below normal. Fun to look at, but tough to verify this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 That ULL is nearly 30dm below normal. Fun to look at, but tough to verify this time of year. Oh sure...I'd be curious about how far from normal those progged H85 temps are for early September. Probably like 3 S.D. or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Probably will not be as robust. To be expected - I just like hearing about below normal temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Oh sure...I'd be curious about how far from normal those progged H85 temps are for early September. Probably like 3 S.D. or more.Not sure what the SD is, but it's about -12C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Actually the EC ensembles aren't too far off from the op run now and definitely favor cooler wx day 8-10 over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Still looks like a couple of nice cool downs possible in the 1st week of Sept. The second one is a little more up in the air, but models are trying to play around with a strong piece of polar energy diving south through Canada after day 7. At this time we see ridging pump up in NW Canada which allows this to really dig. The question is whether it blows in here like some of the GFS and Euro op runs show, or will it be a glancing blow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Nice full latitude trough on the euro later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 This is the guy I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Where's my upslope snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Beautiful cool down on the ecens too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 Where's my upslope snow?There was this gem on last night's d10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 28, 2013 Share Posted August 28, 2013 There was this gem on last night's d10... image.jpg lol congrats Quebec City. I was completely joking but usually our first flakes are of upslope origin. Makes sense synoptically as our first solid cold shots are usually on strong NW winds with a deep trough moving overhead...we usually have to wait a while to really see our first synoptic snows. Speaking of which...from BTV: "Did you know...on this date in 1986, Mt Mansfield recorded it's earliest measurable snowfall? 0.2" fell during the early morning hours following the passage of a strong cold front, which also dropped the temperature there to 32F. Here in Burlington, the high that day was only 60F." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Continued cool down on track per Euro ensembles. Transient -NAO ridge and NW Canada ridge means trough dips into the US. Pretty big changes in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 Folks..I think we're looking at a very chilly and well below normal September and autumn season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 And it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 Seasons in seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 lol the switch just flipped. God it'll make your head spin. Above normal all summer, below normal all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Seasons in seasons You know forecasting is different from wishcasting right? You don't just forecast what you want...sometimes weather occurs that you don't want and you can acknowledge it. It won't hurt sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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