mob1 Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Queens, specifically Northern Queens, experienced an EF1 tornado AND a 125mph macroburst with the same storm in September of 2010. The damage I saw around Flushing/Bayside was remarkable and I doubt any storm ever does that type of damage again in this area. Yeah, it really hits you what a minimal tornado can do. I took a million pictures of the 2007 EF2 in Brooklyn (although it was only EF1 over me and we sustained some minor roof damage) and I still can't get over how some huge trees are completely twisted, just sobering stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Pretty unimpressed with the modeling today as far as a significant/widespread event goes. The lapse rates are average at best..and the best 0-6km bulk shear and wind fields are directly along or even lagging behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 17, 2013 Author Share Posted July 17, 2013 Queens, specifically Northern Queens, experienced an EF1 tornado AND a 125mph macroburst with the same storm in September of 2010. The damage I saw around Flushing/Bayside was remarkable and I doubt any storm ever does that type of damage again in this area. Yea I was hit directly by the tornado, was not fun, I literally thought my life was in Danger. - The ironic thing was I have been tracking storms since I was 10, and that might have been the only storm that I had no idea was coming until I heard a rumble of thunder. (I was just so busy that week) Ironically that would be the worst storm of my life By the way does anyone have the Nexrad radar loop from that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Well yeah, widespread events are always less common here. But each of the last few years provided several firsts orvery rare events at different locations around the area. I think that people try to compare an active severe thunderstorm day here to what happens in the Plains or Midwest. I think the events have been localized and I have also been unimpressed with the severe weather here over the past several years. Not sure if it is bad luck, or a changing pattern over time. I think back to the early 2000's and how we would get 3-5 major squall lines per year. There also seemed to be better EML advection in that active period. Nowadays, every event seems to have awful lapse rates in the Northeast. Not sure, over a long period of time, what is causing it (could be eml advection patterns/etc or something larger scale) but it has definitely been a quiet period in the NE as far as widespread wind events that used to be more common in the late 90s and early 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I think the events have been localized and I have also been unimpressed with the severe weather here over the past several years. Not sure if it is bad luck, or a changing pattern over time. I think back to the early 2000's and how we would get 3-5 major squall lines per year. There also seemed to be better EML advection in that active period. Nowadays, every event seems to have awful lapse rates in the Northeast. Not sure, over a long period of time, what is causing it (could be eml advection patterns/etc or something larger scale) but it has definitely been a quiet period in the NE as far as widespread wind events that used to be more common in the late 90s and early 2000's. Summer 2008 also had a lot of hail events. I'm an avid gardener and I remember that year being very active for severe. There wasn't anything incredibly dangerous, but just a lot of gully-washing rainfalls with some decent sized hail stones. 2009, 2011, and 2012 were all poor summers for severe. 2010 had two major squall lines in September, the better known of which gave us the tornadoes in Queens. This year, we've barely had a thunderstorm in Dobbs Ferry, much less a severe storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I think the events have been localized and I have also been unimpressed with the severe weather here over the past several years. Not sure if it is bad luck, or a changing pattern over time. I think back to the early 2000's and how we would get 3-5 major squall lines per year. There also seemed to be better EML advection in that active period. Nowadays, every event seems to have awful lapse rates in the Northeast. Not sure, over a long period of time, what is causing it (could be eml advection patterns/etc or something larger scale) but it has definitely been a quiet period in the NE as far as widespread wind events that used to be more common in the late 90s and early 2000's. wasn't the 1995 derecho on this date?...When I was in Florida they were getting rains at a record pace...They haven't seen storms like that in years...years ago you got heat waves but there was some cool periods also or near record low mornings...patterns lock in longer now than 40 years ago...Why???... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 wasn't the 1995 derecho on this date?...When I was in Florida they were getting rains at a record pace...They haven't seen storms like that in years...years ago you got heat waves but there was some cool periods also or near record low mornings...patterns lock in longer now than 40 years ago...Why???... This is the question I've been asking, too. To me, it goes even further than rainfall. I remember clearly every summer in the late 90's to early 2000's being able to track more than a couple of squall lines per summer. They would come either from PA or NY State and turn southeast into NY/NJ/LI producing (usually) a widespread amount of wind reports along the way. Back in the day (early 2000's when I was first really getting into meteorology), the Metro Weather channel on Cablevision had one of the coolest radars that constantly updated. So I remember living in Brooklyn at the time and watching these monster squall lines come through a few times a year. Nowadays it seems that the crap lapse rates and changing pattern kills these squall lines by the time they get to the Delaware River...and we get garden variety storms/heavy rain at best. I'm not sure what has changed in the long-term pattern to cause this...or if its just bad luck...but I would love to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 This is the question I've been asking, too. To me, it goes even further than rainfall. I remember clearly every summer in the late 90's to early 2000's being able to track more than a couple of squall lines per summer. They would come either from PA or NY State and turn southeast into NY/NJ/LI producing (usually) a widespread amount of wind reports along the way. Back in the day (early 2000's when I was first really getting into meteorology), the Metro Weather channel on Cablevision had one of the coolest radars that constantly updated. So I remember living in Brooklyn at the time and watching these monster squall lines come through a few times a year. Nowadays it seems that the crap lapse rates and changing pattern kills these squall lines by the time they get to the Delaware River...and we get garden variety storms/heavy rain at best. I'm not sure what has changed in the long-term pattern to cause this...or if its just bad luck...but I would love to find out. it could be caused by a warmer planet because of less cold air to work with or a cycle we are in and the storms will return some day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 I think the events have been localized and I have also been unimpressed with the severe weather here over the past several years. Not sure if it is bad luck, or a changing pattern over time. I think back to the early 2000's and how we would get 3-5 major squall lines per year. There also seemed to be better EML advection in that active period. Nowadays, every event seems to have awful lapse rates in the Northeast. Not sure, over a long period of time, what is causing it (could be eml advection patterns/etc or something larger scale) but it has definitely been a quiet period in the NE as far as widespread wind events that used to be more common in the late 90s and early 2000's. Yea exactly, I feel like there were serious wide-spread storms multiple times, every year, and lately I can barley hear a rumble of thunder - Also during that period we received little to average snow if I remember and the last few years have switched (I wonder if there is any correlation?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Some examples http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000602 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000518 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000513 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020723 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020802 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020723 Those are just a few from 2000-2002. All widespread/organized wind events. Every other radar image looks like this and turns into this These events have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Some examples http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000602 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000518 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000513 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020723 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020802 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020723 Those are just a few from 2000-2002. All widespread/organized wind events. Every other radar image looks like this and turns into this These events have disappeared. Wow yea, I cant remember the last squall line that drop down from the north like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 wasn't the 1995 derecho on this date?...When I was in Florida they were getting rains at a record pace...They haven't seen storms like that in years...years ago you got heat waves but there was some cool periods also or near record low mornings...patterns lock in longer now than 40 years ago...Why???... 1997 on this day I believe had a pretty severe line move through. I used to keep track of thunderstorms when I was younger. I'm going to have to dig for it tonight. I recall having at least 15-20 events in one season ..probably only 1 or 2 severe but just many more garden variety storms that are harder to come by lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 For the NYC metro, Saturday really doesn't seem like a setup that holds too much severe potential (I don't even think that there is a setup that ever does for the region) The bulk of the wind reports on Saturday should be in east/central Pennsylvania, upstate New York, and possibly NW NJ. Last severe thunderstorm here was over four years ago and I don't think that going to change anytime soon. Huh? There is zero chance the last severe storm in the Upton area was 4 years ago. I was referring to the lack of severe in northern Bergen county. The last event which was on 7/7/09, was probably the best I've seen since the early 2000's. Macroburst with 80mph winds, zero visibility, dime sized hail, and a green hue at 11pm. Nothing better. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Most of these events look like NW flow events, that congealed into squall line closer to our area. They didn't feel the downsloping effect off the mountains,as much. I haven't seen anything like this since 6/26/09. Some examples http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000602 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000518 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20000513 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020723 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020802 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20020723 Those are just a few from 2000-2002. All widespread/organized wind events. Every other radar image looks like this and turns into this These events have disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I remember watching TWC in the 90s and early 2000s and as Earthlight said a few times a year you would see a nice thick line of storms come down from the northwest in upstate NY and PA and head southeast toward the NYC area. It seemed that the storms would hit us in the late afternoon to early evening every time. I can't remember the last time I saw a line like that come diving southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I remember watching TWC in the 90s and early 2000s and as Earthlight said a few times a year you would see a nice thick line of storms come down from the northwest in upstate NY and PA and head southeast toward the NYC area. It seemed that the storms would hit us in the late afternoon to early evening every time. I can't remember the last time I saw a line like that come diving southeastward. here are 3... one is the labor day derecho of 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 here are 3... one is the labor day derecho of 98 Anything from late June of '94? I Remember a very potent line coming through then. It was a late morning/very early afternoon storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 But all those were relatively isolated and confined to portions of the city (I believe superstorm is from NE NJ) Good point about how rare widespread events are though, the 98 labor day derecho is the only one I remember. (on a more positive note, my area was hit with an EF1 in 2007)8/2/2002 was a pretty good severe weather event if I remember correctly. 6/2/2000 as well. I actually remember 6/2/2000...it was a few weeks before my 6th birthday and we were eating pizza at our house (where I no longer live) in Morris Plains, NJ. It had been warm and breezy most of the day, and in the evening it suddenly got dark and the wind just picked up like crazy--probably at least 50-60 mph, if not more. It rained very hard for a bit and we lost power for about 30 seconds. What was unique among thunderstorms I remember is that it wasted no time in our area--it was in and out within 10 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Anything from late June of '94? I Remember a very potent line coming through then. It was a late morning/very early afternoon storm. the site doesn't have it... that may have been the storm that got me into wx when i was a kid living in bayonne. i remember branches flying past the window and widespread damage in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 8/2/2002 was a pretty good severe weather event if I remember correctly. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/looper2.php?date=020802&type=rad i had nickel sized hail in bayonne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 here are 3... one is the labor day derecho of 98 Seeing one of these on radar this year would put the biggest cheese smile on my face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I think what people are noticing is the tendency for squall lines to split when they reach NYC. https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/webprogram/Paper224121.html https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/flvgateway.cgi/id/24041?recordingid=24041 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 I think what people are noticing is the tendency for squall lines to split when they reach NYC. https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/webprogram/Paper224121.html https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/flvgateway.cgi/id/24041?recordingid=24041 not necessarily. I think as earthlight and forky mentioned, there are less squall line and widespread strong to severe events, particularly for areas west, southwest and north of the city as well as the city itself. And most of the storms/squall lines we do see tend to be over PA or the midatlantic and die out well west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 not necessarily. I think as earthlight and forky mentioned, there are less squall line and widespread strong to severe events, particularly for areas west, southwest and north of the city as well as the city itself. And most of the storms/squall lines we do see tend to be over PA or the midatlantic and die out well west of the city. September, 2010 (radar posted above), is an example of a strong line of storms that was weak and blew up right over Brooklyn and Queens to produce 2 tornadoes (EF1 in Queens and EF0 in Brooklyn), along with a 10 mile wide 125mph macroburst. While not widespread, it affected a huge population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 September, 2010 (radar posted above), is an example of a strong line of storms that was weak and blew up right over Brooklyn and Queens to produce 2 tornadoes (EF1 in Queens and EF0 in Brooklyn), along with a 10 mile wide 125mph macroburst. While not widespread, it affected a huge population. The widespread events have become less common, that's what I was really driving at. Sept 2010 was a locally severe event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 The widespread events have become less common, that's what I was really driving at. Sept 2010 was a locally severe event. Agree. But September, 2010 might have affected a small area in terms of square footage, but in terms of population, it had a huge affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 not necessarily. I think as earthlight and forky mentioned, there are less squall line and widespread strong to severe events, particularly for areas west, southwest and north of the city as well as the city itself. And most of the storms/squall lines we do see tend to be over PA or the midatlantic and die out well west of the city. The amount of severe events from year to year can be quite variable. The SPC hasn't updated this chart since 2006, but you can see that some years have more severe reports than others. Also notice the increase in severe reports following the installation of the doppler in the 90's. It would be nice if they updated the numbers so we could compare recent years to earlier years going back to the doppler installation. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/OKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Day 3 slight risk, this marks the fourth consecutive day that we have been outlined by SPC for a risk of severe storms for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 We'll have to watch for the possiblity of being clipped by a MCS later. Right now their is an onging thunderstorm complex east of Lake Huron that could make a SE turn later. 12z soundings are quite unstable and SPC meso analysis indicates in excess of 3000 J/KG of SBCAPE already over NNJ. Shear is meager but the instability alone might be enough to maintain these storms. SPC has placed our northern zones in a 5% risk zone today for hail and damaging winds eluding to this slight possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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