IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 Nice cluster of storms gelling just to the west of Ithaca. Seem to be on a southeast trajectory. Puts them in the area in about 6-7 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 12z GGEM trended stronger with the front for Saturday night. Swings it through the area around 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 Nice cluster of storms gelling just to the west of Ithaca. Seem to be on a southeast trajectory. Puts them in the area in about 6-7 hours. All the Nexrad radars are down... Edit :back up again HRRR gets some of the storms in here, 4k dried them out...lets see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 18z 4k NAM sped up the storms for Saturday night. Gets them here around 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 In liberty ny in the catskills , it's hot even up here around 91 for the high at an elevation of 1,600 ft. Nights are cooler with upper 60s which is very warm for up here. Watching the line of thunderstorms near Binghamton and hoping we can get some short term relief in 2-3 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 18, 2013 Author Share Posted July 18, 2013 18z 4k NAM sped up the storms for Saturday night. Gets them here around 00z Much better looking setup than 12z now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 18, 2013 Share Posted July 18, 2013 18Z RGEM three hour rain valid 21Z Saturday. 18Z RGEM lifted index valid 18Z Saturday. 18Z RGEM CAPE valid 18Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 HRRR has some storms moving through later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 19, 2013 Author Share Posted July 19, 2013 Storms firing south of SI now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 The question will be how much the the convection over the lakes now affect us and can we get a good amount of sun in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Lots of convective debris to our west now, may dampen instability today. The best shear and forcing is also to our NW. Doesn't look good for severe wx to me. But several models are showing line of storms moving through the late afternoon hours/early evening hours. So we'll have to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 thank you for this post. What is CAPE by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 4k looks good too...just a little slower that the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 convective available potential energy - it basiclly mesures how unstable the air mass is thank you for this post. What is CAPE by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Thank you. I hope to see some nice thunderstorms this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Thank you. I hope to see some nice thunderstorms this afternoon Yea same here, there has been a drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Wind field is mostly unidirectional so I wouldn't worry about tornado threats today. DCAPE is not that impressive for damaging wind gusts and freezing level and wet bulb zero levels are up near 600 hpa so hail is not likely, but can happen. I think storms today will contain mostly heavy rainfall with pw approaching 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 New outlook from SPC puts the entire region solidly in a slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 New outlook from SPC puts the entire region solidly in a slight risk Nice, i thought they were going to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Hudson Valley and adjacent CT now in a severe t-storm watch until 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Severe thunderstorm watch for the northern part of thr area: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 426 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 210 PM EDT SAT JUL 20 2013 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLUMBIA DUTCHESS ORANGE PUTNAM ROCKLAND ULSTER WESTCHESTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 SCP is really decent over the NY/LI/NJ area... Just need some actual convective development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 20, 2013 Author Share Posted July 20, 2013 Hrrr has a nice line later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Rgem has a nice line from 5pm to 8pm and then one more overnight into early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Rgem has a nice line from 5pm to 8pm and then one more overnight into early tomorrow morning. I'm kind of surprised, radar looks pretty meh right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 I'm kind of surprised, radar looks pretty meh right now. It blows up some stuff from PA and then takes it right through NJ/NYC/CT. We'll see in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Right now, shortwave over New England is robbing us forcing here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Right now, shortwave over New England is robbing us forcing here: The models that have activity in our area, don't really have anything organized until near sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 The models that have activity in our area, don't really have anything organized until near sunset. That's the problem for us. When instability starts diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted July 20, 2013 Share Posted July 20, 2013 Not sure where the forcing will come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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