msp Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 lots of open area between Waco and Temple/Killeen you could get some good shots. just don't want to go too far south of Killeen/Temple as you start to get mixed up with the folks in Austin and also Bryan/College Station/Texas A&M. you might want to check with MSP to see if there's any construction to worry about in central TX, given that last I knew he goes to A&M. I-35 is a real mess between Waco and the split in Hillsboro. I've driven it five times in the last ten days and hit a backup every time. We will be obviously watching this closely here in DFW. I would be out chasing if I was not at work all day. People here at the office already discussing where to go in case of a tornado. I live on the third floor of an old apartment complex, so needless to say I'll be staying at the office if any threat is imminent. I got some great pics of mammatus clouds yesterday evening and will try to post pics today if anything interesting rumbles through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 TW is mod across the board for everything, but high for severe wind... disco from the watch follows: DISCUSSION...AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE TURNING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WW AREA. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SITUATED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRAILING SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Probability of 2 or more tornadoes Mod (40%) Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (30%) Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%) Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (30%) Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events Mod (50%) Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (30%) Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Southermost cell looks good already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Southermost cell looks good alreadyWe haven't even eaten yet. Silly early CI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 We haven't even eaten yet. Silly early CI. Breakfast burritos are portable. You are in TX after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Let's see if the WRF-NMM can nail an event for the third day in a row. Current surface data and PVA at 700-400 mb seem to line up with the WRF-NMM in favoring a strengthening/backing low-level wind profile in about two to three hours. I would say that the tornado threat appears to be in line with the SPC along with a tremendous wind potential affecting the DFW metroplex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Not seeing big rotation on free Abilene or Frederick NWS radar products, but cell NE of Abilene is starting to get that look like it could become tornadic, not a hook quite yet, but headed in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Storm nearing witchita falls might be one to watch if it can stay ahead of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Storm nearing witchita falls might be one to watch if it can stay ahead of the line. That cell, and the one south of it, both look anafrontal to me and are probably elevated. You can see the outflow boundary on Dyess AFB radar, well south of the action, now pressing south through Abiliene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 That cell, and the one south of it, both look anafrontal to me and are probably elevated. You can see the outflow boundary on Dyess AFB radar, well south of the action, now pressing south through Abiliene. Agree. FWD already talking about this and suggesting the area to watch will be ahead of the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 That cell, and the one south of it, both look anafrontal to me and are probably elevated. You can see the outflow boundary on Dyess AFB radar, well south of the action, now pressing south through Abiliene. Agreed. The southern one had a chance as it was right along the boundary for a while. Now everything looks a-mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Persistent svr warned cell to the west of OKC continues to bow out. Looks like it may clip the NW burbs of OKC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I am posting the 4-hour forecast of STP (significant tornado parameter.) Valid for 20z or 3:00PM central. It is pretty high around Texarkana. This leads me to believe we will have at least 5 tornadoes in the risk area today. It may be at least 2-3 tornadoes are NOT right at this max in STP. That's just a guess based on past experience. The 0-1km shear is also pretty decent, up to 30 knots right now for southern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Update from Jeff: (Pro Met HCFCD) SPC has issued a large tornado watch for much of N and portions of C TX until 700pm. Outflow boundary from S OK convection is surging southward over N TX while at the same time the dry line/cold front combo is approaching from the west. The air mass over N and C TX is becoming very unstable with CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg along the I-35 corridor. With continued surface heating, expect supercells to develop within the next few hours from NW of Fort Worth SSW along the dry line deep into C TX. Backed low level winds near the incoming outflow boundary from the NW may help to enhance the tornado threat near/around Fort Worth over the next several hours. Southern flank supercells that fire along the dry line west of Austin/Waco will have a high end tornado threat along with a very large hail threat (greater than 2.0 inches in diameter). Storms will congeal into a forward fast moving line by this evening with a very significant wind damage threat (frequent speeds to hurricane force) spreading across much of NTX into our northern counties. Short term high resolution models continue to suggest a bow echo evolving over N TX with southern flank supercells with a tornado threat across central TX. Think the biggest tornado threat will reside NW of a line from Austin to near College Station to Lufkin and ahead of the main squall line. Meso models continue to trend toward bring an MCS/bow echo into and possibly even through much of SE TX overnight. Still some questions on the cap intensity with the same models showing a building cap after sunset from deep south TX into the coastal bend so even though the meso models are wanting to bring storms all the way to the coast, the thermodynamic profile may not be very favorable south of I-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Those storms have all congealed, and have become outflow dominant. Not sure how much discrete activity there will be. Still watching boundaries though. Sitting in Denton, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 We are dropping south prob to somewhere between Austin and San Angelo. Not sold given radar but that area seems to have the best chance of something chaseable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Those storms have all congealed, and have become outflow dominant. Not sure how much discrete activity there will be. Still watching boundaries though. Sitting in Denton, TX. Stay safe! Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 We are dropping south prob to somewhere between Austin and San Angelo. Not sold given radar but that area seems to have the best chance of something chaseable. Good luck! I was considering the RR area E of 35, but the boundary seems to be racing S and posing an undercutting problem. C TX seems the best play for now. Hoping for a return to peaceful High Plains chasing come Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Good luck! I was considering the RR area E of 35, but the boundary seems to be racing S and posing an undercutting problem. C TX seems the best play for now. Hoping for a return to peaceful High Plains chasing come Thursday.If we weren't chasecationing today would be very tempting to sit out. Oh well. Some Caprock love on Thursday would be great. At least it's a reason to grab our steak at the Big Texan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 New 12z SPC WRF pretty much limits discrete development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0752 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 201... VALID 211819Z - 212015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 201 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...AND MAY RAPIDLY INTENSIFY CLOSE TO OR JUST E OF THE DALLAS/FT. WORTH AREA EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT A BAND OF THICK STRATUS CONTINUES TO HAMPER HEATING AND SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION W OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TX AS OUTFLOW AND COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRAVEL SEWD OVER WRN N TX. CURRENTLY...THESE STORMS ARE FORMING MAINLY BEHIND THE LEADING OUTFLOW...DUE IN PART TO THE COOLER SURFACE AIR AND MARGINAL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. HOWEVER...HEATING PERSISTS ALONG AND E OF I-35...WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 82-84 F RANGE. MODIFICATION OF THE 18Z FWD SOUNDING SUGGESTS CAPPING IN THESE AREAS IS AT A MINIMUM...AND THAT THE APPROACHING LINE OF CONVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO INGEST MORE UNSTABLE AIR. A GENERAL SWWD GROWTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE WACO AREA. GIVEN THE RAPIDLY ADVANCING GUST FRONT...AND VEERED 850 MB WINDS PRIMARILY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT BE HIGH...BUT IF SUPERCELLS CAN FORM THEN ROTATION COULD DEVELOP ALONG ANY INFLECTION POINTS IN THE LINE. ELSEWHERE...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO NRN TX AND SWRN AR...WITH SPORADIC SMALL STORMS FORMING TO THE N OF IT. THESE CELLS MAY BECOME A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS...AND SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS UPSTREAM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN AR. ALSO...THERE IS A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT IF CELLS CAN MATURE BEFORE THEY CROSS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...CELL MOTION WOULD CAUSE THESE STORMS TO LOSE TORNADO THREAT QUICKLY ONCE THEY CROSS THE FRONT. ..JEWELL.. 05/21/2013 ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 New tornado watch in effect for the Arklatex, appears to be a confluence band setting up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I don't know what that TOR in the middle of the slop was about, but the storm west of Texarcana is quickly getting that look. edit: They just warned that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Discrete cell ahead of the line may be forming in Dallas County now, but I'd expect it'd be east of metro-DFW before it became mature enough for significant hail or a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Gotta love the Arklatex radar hole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Gotta love the Arklatex radar hole... No kidding, its driving me nuts right now. Headed east out fo Dallas right now...see some stuff trying to fire ahead of the main line. Not sure if it will sustain itself long enough before getting munched from behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 New Boston, TX is in the path of whatever is on that TW'd cell. Edit: Perhaps not. #skewed radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Looks like a few storms trying to go up along the dryline. Fairly far south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Of course possible cell of interest looks to cross Ft Hood. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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