Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[OHweather]

Here are some of the latest forecast products from CLE:

 

Their point forecast for Mayfield Heights:
 

• This Afternoon Snow. High near 12. Wind chill values as low as -8. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
• Tonight Snow showers likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -16. West wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Their near term AFD, updated around 11:20AM:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...WILL EXTEND THE EXISTING WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH NOON
FRIDAY. ALSO WILL ISSUE NEW ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. NO OTHER BIG CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

ORIGINAL...THE CURRENT CLIPPER AFFECTING THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WRAP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE TO KEEP A GOOD THREAT FOR NUISANCE
SNOW GOING BUT THE THREAT SHOULD START TO SHIFT MORE TOWARD JUST
THE SNOWBELT AS EVENING BEGINS. ACCUMULATION TODAY SHOULD LESS
THAN AN INCH ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS IN THE SNOWBELT COULD SEE LOCAL
AMOUNTS OF ANOTHER INCH OR SO.

WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE WEST SERVE AS THE
HEADLINE DU JOUR FOR NOW.

 

AND, their aviation portion of the AFD updated a bit before 1:00PM:

 

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW. COULD SEE UPWARDS OF AN INCH
THIS EVENING BEFORE STARTS TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT LOCAL. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND AND THEN BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW.

 

Here's their snowfall graphics for today:

 

Through 1:00PM

 

 

1:00PM-7:00PM

 

[Hoosier]

You guys could be more tactful with your criticism.  Seems like there's something new almost every time it snows.  If I'm a met who's lurking, what incentive would I have to post here. 

[OHweather]

You guys could be more tactful with your criticism.  Seems like there's something new almost every time it snows.  If I'm a met who's lurking, what incentive would I have to post here. 

I guess I see your point. It's frustrating but I'll choose my words wisely.

[NEOH]

Great illustration above of why we get frustrated with cle. The criticism is warranted. Its probably fair to say no Mets from cle will be posting here. Oddly enough they don't seem all that interested in the weather.

[OHweather]

Great illustration above of why we get frustrated with cle. The criticism is warranted. Its probably fair to say no Mets from cle will be posting here. Oddly enough they don't seem all that interested in the weather.

From what I've observed, if it's bad enough for Hoosier to think it may be detrimental to the forum in general it probably is crossing a line. I criticize plenty myself and agree it's frustrating quite often (hence the criticism). I edited my above post probably before you saw it because a few lines were somewhat personal.

With that said, it's not necessarily the forecasts prior to the events being off that gets me when we get these convergence bands over Cuyahoga County. They're hard to nail down and I'm certainly not great at it myself. If anything CLE did good to mention the possibility yesterday afternoon. But the big issue with me at least is the slow response when they do form and that's what'll garner my criticism in these situations. We'll see what the afternoon AFD says shortly. The band is still hanging on nicely.

 

And while we're here, they just issued a winter storm watch for Friday night into Saturday.

[Trent]

Busted forecasts happen, no one's going to be perfect. However, I wouldn't knock CLE if this didn't happen almost EVERY storm this winter.

It's more comical than anything. The frequency of busts this winter (and last) isn't an exaggeration.

Highlights of the winter include a 10" storm that met blizzard warning criteria that wasn't warned until 90% of the snow fell. A 48 hour winter storm warning for 0.9" of snow. A 5" lake effect band that went unwarned despite reports to the NWS. A 7" east side lake effect band that went unwarned. A 6-8" snowfall last week over Norwalk that didn't turn into an advisory until most had fell.

Toss today into the mix above and you can see the frustration folks have here.

[buckeye]

You guys could be more tactful with your criticism.  Seems like there's something new almost every time it snows.  If I'm a met who's lurking, what incentive would I have to post here. 

 

The incentive might be to defend and explain the reasoning behind their forecasts.   I have to say ILN has done a 180 wrt AFDs.  Much better now.  A lot of them are lengthy and informative.   If they say it's going to snow 2" when the models are calling for 6", they at least explain why.  It's kind of refreshing.  

 

I still say PIT is the worst hands down. 

[Trent]

Easily 6-7" at the Mayfield Heights / Pepper Pike border.

We'll see how much is on ground near the coast in a bit.

[dta1984]

I measured 5-6" in several spots.

By this time next week we could have a nice snowpack going.

[OHweather]

Amazing how the tune is much more optimistic after this little surprise. The trough over the lake appears to be shifting south so the heavier snow may shift back inland over the next hour or so.

[NEOH]

Came home to 5-6". Not sure what was on the driveway beforehand... Probably not much. There was a sharp cutoff...only about 2" at 422 and 306. Glad I'm north of there this winter. Great surprise. Looking forward to the weekend.

[OHweather]

Trent, are you still seeing some good bursts? This band is still hanging on, not bad for a frozen lake. This is probably the biggest LES of the winter for Cuyahoga County, go figure. October may have had locally higher amounts in like one spot (near Mayfield) but this one is definitely more widespread.

[NEOH]

Trent, are you still seeing some good bursts? This band is still hanging on, not bad for a frozen lake. This is probably the biggest LES of the winter for Cuyahoga County, go figure. October may have had locally higher amounts in like one spot (near Mayfield) but this one is definitely more widespread.

What was odd today was the persistent area of snow on the radar just north of the Lorain/cuyahoga border over the lake. I wonder if an open area formed there.

The strong southwest winds tomrorrow might move the ice around and offer another opportunity for les. We'll see.

[Trent]

Trent, are you still seeing some good bursts? This band is still hanging on, not bad for a frozen lake. This is probably the biggest LES of the winter for Cuyahoga County, go figure. October may have had locally higher amounts in like one spot (near Mayfield) but this one is definitely more widespread.

Definitely a healthy squall right now. What I wouldn't give to have this stall overnight. I don't know if I've experienced LES here with temps this cold before. Very unique situation right now.

[dta1984]

Wish that would drift east some haha

[OHweather]

Definitely a healthy squall right now. What I wouldn't give to have this stall overnight. I don't know if I've experienced LES here with temps this cold before. Very unique situation right now.

The RAP shows 850mb winds holding steady at WNW to even NW through most of the night although shows surface winds trying to go SW shortly as the surface high pushes in. The model doesn't show a big decrease in moisture until closer to 5AM...I have a feeling the band gets pushed out over the lake, but IF it manages to cling to the shoreline it may be half decent for several more hours.

 

I think a couple of things happened here. It's really tough to tell exactly how wide it is, but it looks like about a 10 mile wide crack in the ice opened up from Sandusky to the Canadian boarder. There was (and still is) a trough hanging over Lake Erie. I'm guessing that there was enough moisture/heat flux from the large crack in the ice and through any smaller ones to modify the airmass over the lake enough so that there was enough of a density differential between over land and over the lake to cause convergence near the shore. In addition, winds over the lake were WNW, so as these winds hit the shore, enough friction occurred to cause air to pile-up and hence more convergence. In addition, convergence with the trough already favored southern Lake Erie. The trough also caused good low-mid level moisture to be in place, so I really think it was all this convergence that rang out the snow. There was probably marginal instability over the lake too which didn't hurt. Everything really came together.

 

CLE's PNS from Cuyahoga County is disappointing:

 

..CUYAHOGA COUNTY...

SHAKER HTS 3.0 515 PM 1/23 SNOW SPOTTER

CLEVELAND-W SIDE 2.2 804 PM 1/23 SNOW SPOTTER

EUCLID 1.3 917 PM 1/23 SNOW SPOTTER

CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 1.0 700 PM 1/23 ASOS

BEREA T 852 PM 1/23 SNOW SPOTTER

 

I have a friend in Westlake who has 5" and counting...and heard from several people (and confirmed by you guys) that the I-271 corridor got 4-7".

[Trent]

Run a radar loop from yesterday. You can clearly see the areas that got hit. It seems to be the same song and tune every time the "elusive" east west convergence band sets up Westlake - Lakewood - Downtown - Cleveland Heights - Beachwood - Mayfield and then into Geauga County, which is ironically the type of lake effect set up that is going to effect the greatest population in NE Ohi0.

 

Even the airport, which sat outside the heaviest returns of the band mustered 2.8" yesterday, which is a telling sign of how much actually fell in the areas that were in the heart of the band all day!

 

I'm still baffled why no advisory was issued, but the point is moot. The east-west convergence bands will always continue to surprise.

 

Advisories are out for tonight and it looks like this should be one storm that actually pans out as forecasted ... oops I just jinxed it.

[buckeye]

Thought this was a pretty colorful discussion from an unlikely source....CLE:

 

THIS PATTERN
HAS BEEN BRUTAL AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY RELIEF
IN SIGHT FOR SOME TIME. EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...LIFT NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN MOVE BACK WEST ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA AND THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY
WEEKS END. TALK ABOUT A ONE TWO PUNCH. BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
AND IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...IT APPEARS THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO MODERATE OVER THE EAST COAST A BIT. A LOOK AT THE HEMISPHERIC
LOOP OF THE AIR MASSES DRIFTING AROUND THE NORTH POLE INDICATES
THERE IS A LOT OF WOBBLE IN THE POLAR JET STREAM.  IN OTHER
WORDS...THESE COLD AIR OUT BREAKS ARE AFFECTING ALL OF THE COUNTRIES
IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. OR SHOULD I SAY BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC
FRONT. THIS MAY BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER
SO FAR AS FLOW COMES RIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH POLE. WE HAVE ALREADY
SEEN SNOWY OWLS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE POLAR BEARS MAY BECOME SNOW
BIRDS AND HEAD SOUTH TOO BECAUSE IT IS TOO COLD UP NORTH. AS ARCTIC
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...

[NEOH]

Thought this was a pretty colorful discussion from an unlikely source....CLE:

 

THIS PATTERN

HAS BEEN BRUTAL AND IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY RELIEF

IN SIGHT FOR SOME TIME. EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC

EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST

AREA...LIFT NORTHEAST TO NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN MOVE BACK WEST ACROSS

CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA AND THEN MOVE BACK SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY

WEEKS END. TALK ABOUT A ONE TWO PUNCH. BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN

AND IF THAT DOES HAPPEN...IT APPEARS THE AIR MASS WILL HAVE A CHANCE

TO MODERATE OVER THE EAST COAST A BIT. A LOOK AT THE HEMISPHERIC

LOOP OF THE AIR MASSES DRIFTING AROUND THE NORTH POLE INDICATES

THERE IS A LOT OF WOBBLE IN THE POLAR JET STREAM.  IN OTHER

WORDS...THESE COLD AIR OUT BREAKS ARE AFFECTING ALL OF THE COUNTRIES

IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.

LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY

WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. OR SHOULD I SAY BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC

FRONT. THIS MAY BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN ALL WINTER

SO FAR AS FLOW COMES RIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH POLE. WE HAVE ALREADY

SEEN SNOWY OWLS SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE POLAR BEARS MAY BECOME SNOW

BIRDS AND HEAD SOUTH TOO BECAUSE IT IS TOO COLD UP NORTH. AS ARCTIC

AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION...

 

CLE is really stepping up their game .

[NEOH]

The RAP shows 850mb winds holding steady at WNW to even NW through most of the night although shows surface winds trying to go SW shortly as the surface high pushes in. The model doesn't show a big decrease in moisture until closer to 5AM...I have a feeling the band gets pushed out over the lake, but IF it manages to cling to the shoreline it may be half decent for several more hours.

 

I think a couple of things happened here. It's really tough to tell exactly how wide it is, but it looks like about a 10 mile wide crack in the ice opened up from Sandusky to the Canadian boarder. There was (and still is) a trough hanging over Lake Erie. I'm guessing that there was enough moisture/heat flux from the large crack in the ice and through any smaller ones to modify the airmass over the lake enough so that there was enough of a density differential between over land and over the lake to cause convergence near the shore. In addition, winds over the lake were WNW, so as these winds hit the shore, enough friction occurred to cause air to pile-up and hence more convergence. In addition, convergence with the trough already favored southern Lake Erie. The trough also caused good low-mid level moisture to be in place, so I really think it was all this convergence that rang out the snow. There was probably marginal instability over the lake too which didn't hurt. Everything really came together.

 

 

That break in the ice just east of the islands is a common feature it seems. Must have something to do with drop off in depth from the western to the central basin. Hopefully the gale force winds later today can shuffle the ice around.

 

Looking at the bufkit cobb output... the GFS shows 7" of snow, with winds coming around to 290 for a 12 hr. period. The NAM shows just under 6", with winds coming around to 300-310. Pretty good agreement.

[carumba]

I was downtown last night around 11pm near the CSU campus and there was a good 4 - 5" of snow, blowing, drifting, and it was still snowing at a decent clip. I take 480E to Solon and 45 mins later (roads bad...) - nothing. Half the snow I'd say and not snowing!

[Trent]

Odd to see the GFS lead the way with QPF for a system. Looks like the euro also had about 0.3" which is a good sign too.

I'd imagine that the ice thickness between the shallow western basin causes fractures and splits of the ice with sw winds. Essentially that lake depth differential is where you're going to see the winds do their magic and fracture the ice at that seam.

It was nice to see CLE had a sense of humor this morning with the AFD. Found this funny as well:

DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT LOWER LEVELS FROM THE WEST SHOULD END ANY

REMAINING LAKE EFFECT THIS MORNING. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING

TODAY WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIVE TEMPS ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE

MID TEENS. THESE SWELTERING TEMPS SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO

ALLOW THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO END AROUND NOON.

[NEOH]

Odd to see the GFS lead the way with QPF for a system. Looks like the euro also had about 0.3" which is a good sign too.

I'd imagine that the ice thickness between the shallow western basin causes fractures and splits of the ice with sw winds. Essentially that lake depth differential is where you're going to see the winds do their magic and fracture the ice at that seam.

It was nice to see CLE had a sense of humor this morning with the AFD. Found this funny as well:

DRIER AIR MOVING IN AT LOWER LEVELS FROM THE WEST SHOULD END ANY

REMAINING LAKE EFFECT THIS MORNING. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING

TODAY WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO DRIVE TEMPS ALL THE WAY UP INTO THE

MID TEENS. THESE SWELTERING TEMPS SHOULD BE JUST WARM ENOUGH TO

ALLOW THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO END AROUND NOON.

 

We might just pull off a repeat of yesterday with the forecasted SW'erly winds. No doubt the ice will push around. Almost impossible to forecast though so high bust potential. Latest snowfall graphic from CLE -

[NEOH]

GFS is still the most bullish in terms of snowfall... 8.6" on 12z bufkit output, while the NAM showed 5.2". Winds will be favorable for about 12 hours following the clipper.

[dta1984]

Is this Saturday evening after the 1st clipper? I believe there is a second one for Sunday too.

[OHweather]

Looking first at the possible LES Saturday evening behind the first clipper...I'm not too enthused. Don't get me wrong, the lake effect setup itself isn't bad, and if there was open water I'd be more enthused. However, there won't be a trough or anything over the lake to help concentrate convergence. So, while I think there will be some LES due to moisture flux through the ice/any cracks in the ice, I don't think we'll see a convergence band develop and it'll be disorganized. I think 2-4" of synoptic snow from the clipper and 1-3" of additional lake effect snow Saturday evening is a good bet. Saturday afternoon there could be some decent squalls along the arctic front regardless of what any LES does.

 

Sunday looks better for you guys than for me, maybe another couple inches or so? Either way, you'll definitely have snow on the ground for this next cold snap.

[NEOH]

Looking first at the possible LES Saturday evening behind the first clipper...I'm not too enthused. Don't get me wrong, the lake effect setup itself isn't bad, and if there was open water I'd be more enthused. However, there won't be a trough or anything over the lake to help concentrate convergence. So, while I think there will be some LES due to moisture flux through the ice/any cracks in the ice, I don't think we'll see a convergence band develop and it'll be disorganized. I think 2-4" of synoptic snow from the clipper and 1-3" of additional lake effect snow Saturday evening is a good bet. Saturday afternoon there could be some decent squalls along the arctic front regardless of what any LES does.

 

Sunday looks better for you guys than for me, maybe another couple inches or so? Either way, you'll definitely have snow on the ground for this next cold snap.

 

Going conservative? Just joking. Just about every model has a qpf bullseye over the CLE area... not sure if that is a bad or good thing. 3-6" is probably a good call at this point. The winds are going to make it seem much worse.

 

How did the euro look precip wise?

[Chinook]

you don't see BLSN or DRSN much, except for Canada and North Dakota

 

KCLE 241951Z 19019G31KT 4SM BLSN SCT120 OVC250 M10/M19 A3009 RMK AO2 PK WND 19032/1935 VIS 1 1/4 NE SLP207 DRSN T11001189

[Trent]

Euro had about 0.33" liquid equivalent. So that'd be 4-6" with ratios. Not too bad for a clipper.

[OHweather]

Going conservative? Just joking. Just about every model has a qpf bullseye over the CLE area... not sure if that is a bad or good thing. 3-6" is probably a good call at this point. The winds are going to make it seem much worse.

 

How did the euro look precip wise?

I think a good model average for synoptic QPF is around 0.3". Ratios will be decent, but we've seen strong winds cause the ratios to not be truly realized due to the winds shredding the dendrites on the way down or due to blowing and drifting snow not allowing the snow to nicely pileup. Given the duration of the heavier snows will be pretty short I don't mind going on the lower end. For LES it's pretty marginal, there's just a brief window before ridging moves overhead tomorrow night. So I think there will be some but it won't be as organized or as long lasting as yesterday's.

 

NOW, Monday into Monday night I think may be more interesting. We should have at least as much if not more of a stripe of open water to work with after the strong SW winds this weekend east of the islands and possibly a small sliver near the southern lakeshore as well. The NAM, GFS and Euro are hinting at an inverted trough hanging back towards Lake Erie behind the departing and strengthening low pressure Monday into Monday night, and all appear to show a lobe of higher low to mid-level RH moving overhead Monday into Monday night with very cold air temperatures moving in. The models don't really push ridging into northern Ohio until late Monday night. If this all comes together it's kind of a similar setup to yesterday with a WNW flow and possible convergence near the lakeshore. We'll see. But Monday's what I'd personally watch.