Chinook Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 It looks like the northern tier of Ohio will be cold, windy, and will get 0.5-1.0" of rain Saturday. The 1000-850 thicknesses are nearly low enough for freezing rain. I won't predict freezing rain though. Toledo will have 0C at 850mb, -2C at 925mb, and 3C at the surface. With this profile, snowflakes could be melting a couple of hundred feet from the ground. Yuck. Might as well just bring on the snow if you are going to have -2C at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Had it been a few degrees colder, this upcoming rain storm would have been a forecasting nightmare. Northeast Ohio has been riding the line between heavy rain and nothing at all. Latest trends have pushed the heaviest QPF just to our south, but still good enough for a 0.5-0.75" of rain. Forecasters have it easy in these situations, you just have say it's going to rain. The public could care less whether it rains 0.4" or 1.00", but if it's 4" or 10" of snow, then it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Looking at a couple of "wintry" days ahead. The mild up looks somewhat muted as compared to the western sections of this subforum. It's good to be east for a change. Hopefully we'll see the pattern change start to take shape on the models soon. DonS has had a hot hand so I'm riding his calls at this point. I wouldn't rule out a white christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 9, 2014 Author Share Posted December 9, 2014 Amounts seem rather high but we'll see -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Given that this is a cut-off low that is retrograding, with an extremely sharp cut-off from cold/moist to warmer mid-level air and drier air on the western edge, this isn't an easy forecast. BUT, I'll take the under on that CLE forecast. The Euro was the first to pick up on the possible retrograde and snow back into Ohio with this low, and for a couple runs Sunday into yesterday showed up to 6" as far west as parts of Geauga County. The Euro and GFS now agree on possibly 6" in NW PA, maybe up to 4" in eastern Ashtabula, 1-3" for the rest of the Snowbelt and little to none once you hit Cleveland. The 12z hi-res NAM showed up to a foot in eastern Ashtabula, but that's an outlier. This is a cut-off low drifting around with a sharp cut-off on the western edge from favorable synoptic moisture/lift (with cold enough temps for lake enhancement) to drier/warmer mid-levels, so there may be some changes, but I like the 12z GFS/Euro consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 10, 2014 Author Share Posted December 10, 2014 Given that this is a cut-off low that is retrograding, with an extremely sharp cut-off from cold/moist to warmer mid-level air and drier air on the western edge, this isn't an easy forecast. BUT, I'll take the under on that CLE forecast. The Euro was the first to pick up on the possible retrograde and snow back into Ohio with this low, and for a couple runs Sunday into yesterday showed up to 6" as far west as parts of Geauga County. The Euro and GFS now agree on possibly 6" in NW PA, maybe up to 4" in eastern Ashtabula, 1-3" for the rest of the Snowbelt and little to none once you hit Cleveland. The 12z hi-res NAM showed up to a foot in eastern Ashtabula, but that's an outlier. This is a cut-off low drifting around with a sharp cut-off on the western edge from favorable synoptic moisture/lift (with cold enough temps for lake enhancement) to drier/warmer mid-levels, so there may be some changes, but I like the 12z GFS/Euro consensus. Looks like the snow will stay east of the area. CLE has advisories for NWPA. Off and on light snow today so it at least feels like winter feel out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 The incredible November has made this snowless start to December more manageable. But the lack of winter this month is starting to get to me. This thread is at 48 pages. I think they like to restrict these to 30 pages. With this dull pattern, probably a good breaking point for a new thread this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 The incredible November has made this snowless start to December more manageable. But the lack of winter this month is starting to get to me. This thread is at 48 pages. I think they like to restrict these to 30 pages. With this dull pattern, probably a good breaking point for a new thread this winter. Start the new thread Trent and bring some good luck. Yes, November has made this start to December easier to take. Time to move on though... Positive trends on the horizon which is great to see. The "warmth" in Lake Erie is slowly bleeding out. Gotta get a favorable set up for les once the cold air arrives because the western basin won't last more than one or two cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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