Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[OHweather]

Nice video! So I definitely missed a good one (although 5.7" is what I'm up to here and it's still snowing a little bit).

 

Looking past tomorrow's generic 1-2" area wide snowfall, some of the hi-res models are suggesting a decent squall line along the arctic front tomorrow night, so we'll see if we can do that again.

 

Looking at Monday's LES, I'm really going back and forth with myself on this one. Here are some basic arguments for/against heavy LES:

 

The NAM initially shows the modified air off of Lake Michigan and convergence with this air staying south of Lake Erie (which would interfere with convergence near the Lake Erie shoreline) initially, but then swings the convergence north really quickly and then pops a band over the Snowbelt, but then dissipates the convergence over Lake Erie as the modified air from Lake Michigan is essentially cut off by cold moving in from northern Indiana. If this happens there'd maybe be a quick 1-3" or so burst late Monday afternoon in the Snowbelt.

 

Now, I have a couple of reasons to believe the NAM is wrong with its handling of the convergence/modified air from Lake MI.

 

1) First and foremost, the models are initializing with too much ice over southern Lake Michigan and are underdoing the heat/moisture flux off of Lake Erie (they show almost none, while current IR imagery indicates temperatures 10 degrees warmer over Lake Erie east of the islands where there are clear spots than on land).

 

2) This means the modified air from Lake MI would be warmer than currently modeled and may not swing north as quickly Monday night as the air over IN/OH cools, and may not cut so quickly. This modified air is more unstable than the unmodified air farther south, so we'd want it over Lake Erie for as long as possible to help pre-condition things. If the models are under doing heat/moisture flux off of Lake Erie, the convergence may be more persistent near the southern Lakeshore than shown due to the temperature differential between on land and over water.

 

3) The modified air off of Lake MI tonight is running just south of TOL and into parts of Lorain/Medina/Summit Counties. The air overland, south of this modified air on Monday into Monday evening will be colder than it is tonight. In addition, the low level winds are modeled to have less of a northerly component Monday into Monday evening than they do tonight. This suggests the convergence may be closer to the southern Lake Erie shoreline as opposed to well south of it.

 

4) As the coldest air moves overhead Monday evening low level lapse rates will be steep over any open water (or in any modified air off of Lake Michigan) and the models show good moisture up to 800mb or so Monday into Monday evening.

 

This all kind of supports the idea of a convergence band of some kind near the southern Lake Erie shoreline Monday into Monday evening. I'm very tempted to go public with a 4-8" call, but am still reluctant to do so because the hi-res models don't support anything near that...however, for the various reasons mentioned, I think they're off. We'll see. Would be much easier with an open lake.

[Floydbuster]

Amazing snowfall. Totally unexpected. Everytime it looked to be stopping it cranked up worse and worse. I've seen 2-3 ft snow drifts and easily picked up 10-12 inches in Northern Summit.

[OHweather]

CLE snowfall looks to be coming in accurate. The climate summary at 5pm has the accurate precip amount. It's annoying that they put out "fake PNS" reports from CLE in the morning.

 

...THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 25 2014...

VALID TODAY AS OF 0500 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010

CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2014

WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST

VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR

NORMAL

..................................................................

TEMPERATURE (F)

TODAY

MAXIMUM 30 205 PM 73 1950 35 -5 19

MINIMUM 19 222 AM -15 1897 22 -3 12

AVERAGE 25 28 -3 16

PRECIPITATION (IN)

TODAY 0.44 0.08 0.36 0.15

MONTH TO DATE 2.09 2.25 -0.16 1.15

SINCE DEC 1 6.19 5.35 0.84 5.08

SINCE JAN 1 2.09 2.25 -0.16 1.15

SNOWFALL (IN)

TODAY 5.7 0.6 5.1 2.1

MONTH TO DATE 22.6 15.0 7.6 4.6

SINCE DEC 1 40.1 29.1 11.0 19.8

SINCE JUL 1 44.8 33.6 11.2 20.1

SNOW DEPTH 5

For some reason, they changed it for the final climo

PRECIPITATION (IN)

YESTERDAY 0.28 0.08 0.20 0.15

MONTH TO DATE 1.93 2.25 -0.32 1.15

SINCE DEC 1 6.03 5.35 0.68 5.08

SINCE JAN 1 1.93 2.25 -0.32 1.15

SNOWFALL (IN)

YESTERDAY 4.3 0.6 3.7 2.1

MONTH TO DATE 21.2 15.0 6.2 4.6

SINCE DEC 1 38.7 29.1 9.6 19.8

SINCE JUL 1 43.4 33.6 9.8 20.1

SNOW DEPTH 3

[Trent]

For some reason, they changed it for the final climo

PRECIPITATION (IN)

YESTERDAY 0.28 0.08 0.20 0.15

MONTH TO DATE 1.93 2.25 -0.32 1.15

SINCE DEC 1 6.03 5.35 0.68 5.08

SINCE JAN 1 1.93 2.25 -0.32 1.15

SNOWFALL (IN)

YESTERDAY 4.3 0.6 3.7 2.1

MONTH TO DATE 21.2 15.0 6.2 4.6

SINCE DEC 1 38.7 29.1 9.6 19.8

SINCE JUL 1 43.4 33.6 9.8 20.1

SNOW DEPTH 3

 

Came down with a cold yesterday and can't sleep.

 

It really makes you wonder what's going on there. Most of NE Ohio saw 6-10" yesterday, clearly warning criteria. The 5pm climate summary had an accurate measurement and liquid equivalent. I don't know who or why they tinkered with the midnight summary, because even the 0.28" LE is less than whatever melted snow was caught on the hourly METARS (notoriously underdone).

 

Running a radar loop from yesterday and looking at nearby observations, CLE probably ended up somewhere between 6.5" and 8". The snowfall from January 17th was revised down from 1.3" to 0.8" about 3 days later ... that was the Friday that appeared to have precip measurement problems. 

 

This leads me to believe that there probably isn't much concern to snowfall measurements there. The 5.7" at 5 pm with 0.44" LE had to come from somewhere. I'm betting we see this revised over the next day or two. But then again, I don't think it's a priority. If it's not updated, then there is absolutely nothing "official" about the CLE totals. Just like the official Toronto airport totals which don't reflect reality.

 

Oh and if it doesn't update, I wonder if the PD will make a correction to their news article:

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2014/01/snowfall_likely_to_continue_in.html

[dta1984]

Good write up ohweather. If tomorrow les works out we will have had a pretty awesome stretch of snow starting with the les last Thurs.

Been snowing light to moderate most of the morning here.

[zero26800]

Been snowing in kent since about 830. Close to 10" by now. Hard to get a good measurement. Consistent 1/2" per hour rate.

[Trent]

Clipper is performing as expected here. Nice to keep things white.

 

MODIS imagery did show a lot of open water/slush just to the east of the Erie Islands yesterday when we had that brief clearing before the arctic front. Hopefully that plays well into tomorrow.

 

I give it 50/50 odds that the airport's snow totals are accurately updated. 

 

I really wish the NWS would come out with a better system of doing PNS reports here. The twice daily measurements and reports are annoying for trying to figure out storm totals. Rarely ever do you get a storm total report. Yesterday is a prime example, with measurements taken between 6-9 am/pm, you'd have to take three PNS reports (these seem to overwrite one another frequently), match up the locations and then add up the snowfall yourself to figure out what fell for a storm.

 

Also annoying are the light snow events that briefly fall during a report time. There are frequent times where you get 1-3" fall between 5 am and 10 am (or 5 pm/10pm) so that you then have to wait another 12 hours to figure out what a storm total was. And because of the 3 hour reporting window, some station's snow is already complete and others not. 

[zero26800]

Haven't seen a plow in an hour or so. Feeling like they assume we have snowmobiles or something.

[zero26800]

It's picked up even heavier now for the past 30 minutes

[dta1984]

Looks like some lake effect or enhancement now

[zero26800]

Looks like some lake effect or enhancement now

Wonder how long it will be able to hold up

[dta1984]

Measured just under 6" additional since I cleaned the driveway yesterday afternoon. Storm total would be 12" conservatively. Pretty good for a clipper lol.

[NEOH]

Measured just under 6" additional since I cleaned the driveway yesterday afternoon. Storm total would be 12" conservatively. Pretty good for a clipper lol.

Yep... 12" is my total after this last batch of snow. Great weekend. We'll see what happens tonight... Not sure what to expect snowfall wise.

[Trent]

And a meager 0.9" at the airport today as the low balling of totals continues. What a joke.

[BuffaloWeather]

And a meager 0.9" at the airport today as the low balling of totals continues. What a joke.

 

You complain about the Cleveland NWS nearly everyday in this thread. Are you saying your more qualified to measure snowfall and predict the weather than seasoned degreed Mets?

[Trent]

You complain about the Cleveland NWS nearly everyday in this thread. Are you saying your more qualified to measure snowfall and predict the weather than seasoned degreed Mets?

 

One thing to mention, CLE is the abbreviation for the Airport and the NWS. They are not one in the same, but I can see the confusion in this thread as they are constantly referring to two separate entities. With that said, the "NWS CLE" does not measure snow at "CLE" and yes the "NWS CLE" has said in the past that snowfall totals at "CLE" could be underdone by 6-12" in a given year.

 

With that said, yes the airport is notoriously underdone for snowfall reporting. It's hard to understand why every snowfall measurement in the county yesterday was between 7 and 12 inches, yet the airport only had a hair over 4". It's more striking when you compare to the other "official observing" sites. CLE came in well below CAK despite being under considerably better radar returns all day.

 

And with regards to the criticism of the forecasts. They have been bad, hands down. You can go through each winter storm this season (those that occurred and those that were forecast to occur) and see that the verification rates for the Greater Cleveland area are running 20%. I'm sure for people who don't live here, it might seem like a broken record, but the reality is, that the vast majority of the forecasts here have been blown this winter. It really is unfortunate that the forecasts have been bad, but I'll try not to mention the shortcomings of forecasting here any more this winter.

[OHweather]

I can certainly agree that the airport snow totals often seem low, and I believe the NWS has said (via email to members who post here) more than once that they think the CLE snowfall totals are low. Yesterday was a pretty good example. 0.9" for today seems low but isn't as bad, but I was busy much of today and only glanced at radar a couple of times so I may be wrong...but it seemed like the snow was in and out quickly and weakening as it moved east.

 

Looking at tomorrow...the hi-res NAM pops a band off of Lake Erie, but only shows it staying over any one spot for 2-3 hours as it keeps the band moving. For the various reasons I mentioned at the top of the page...I think the band may be less transient. I still haven't given up hope for possibly several inches tomorrow from like Avon Lake east into Cleveland and then down the 322 corridor into Geauga County.

 

There could be 1-2" of snow tonight after midnight along the arctic front...as the front begins running into a somewhat unstable airmass over IN and OH as temperatures aloft cool. It's above freezing here, but we have a good 6" on the ground so I won't loose that until maybe next weekend.

 

[Trent]

I can certainly agree that the airport snow totals often seem low, and I believe the NWS has said (via email to members who post here) more than once that they think the CLE snowfall totals are low. Yesterday was a pretty good example. 0.9" for today seems low but isn't as bad, but I was busy much of today and only glanced at radar a couple of times so I may be wrong...but it seemed like the snow was in and out quickly and weakening as it moved east.

 

Looking at tomorrow...the hi-res NAM pops a band off of Lake Erie, but only shows it staying over any one spot for 2-3 hours as it keeps the band moving. For the various reasons I mentioned at the top of the page...I think the band may be less transient. I still haven't given up hope for possibly several inches tomorrow from like Avon Lake east into Cleveland and then down the 322 corridor into Geauga County.

 

There could be 1-2" of snow tonight after midnight along the arctic front...as the front begins running into a somewhat unstable airmass over IN and OH as temperatures aloft cool. It's above freezing here, but we have a good 6" on the ground so I won't loose that until maybe next weekend.

 

NAM radar.gif

 

I think for "airport CLE" the snowfall inconsistencies come from very windy events and high ratio (which has been most of this winter). I understand that it's got to be extremely difficult to measure when you've got essentially a couple miles of complete open space for wind to blow the snow away. "Airport CLE" snowfall measurements are generally very good when it's a 28 degree, no wind, snowstorm. What baffles me about yesterday's measurement is the 5pm climate summary which looked extremely accurate. Who created that interim report and why was it removed?

 

Today's snowfall probably wasn't that far off the mark. However "Airport CLE" did sit under a pretty good return for 2 hours. CLE had 0.06" liquid for 0.9" of snow, yet CAK had 0.05" liquid for 1.5" of snow. One of those is probably off, or they are both off and should meet in the middle. Considering it snows at the airport several times per week, the few half inches and tenths of an inch add up considerably over the course of a season.

 

I'm optimistic for tomorrow's lake effect potential. Visible satellite showed some decent open areas near the lake shore and east of the Erie Islands and we've had continual southerly winds which should help maintain that 5-10 mile swath of open water just north of the shore. 

[OHweather]

I think for "airport CLE" the snowfall inconsistencies come from very windy events and high ratio (which has been most of this winter). I understand that it's got to be extremely difficult to measure when you've got essentially a couple miles of complete open space for wind to blow the snow away. "Airport CLE" snowfall measurements are generally very good when it's a 28 degree, no wind, snowstorm. What baffles me about yesterday's measurement is the 5pm climate summary which looked extremely accurate. Who created that interim report and why was it removed?

 

Today's snowfall probably wasn't that far off the mark. However "Airport CLE" did sit under a pretty good return for 2 hours. CLE had 0.06" liquid for 0.9" of snow, yet CAK had 0.05" liquid for 1.5" of snow. One of those is probably off, or they are both off and should meet in the middle. Considering it snows at the airport several times per week, the few half inches and tenths of an inch add up considerably over the course of a season.

 

I'm optimistic for tomorrow's lake effect potential. Visible satellite showed some decent open areas near the lake shore and east of the Erie Islands and we've had continual southerly winds which should help maintain that 5-10 mile swath of open water just north of the shore. 

That is certainly why I'd have to imagine. I wonder if there's anywhere that's a bit more sheltered at the airport for them to do the measurements...are there trees north/west of the airport that block the wind at all? That would be a spot where less snow would be blown away from. It certainly does add up. I'd have to imagine CAK's total is more accurate than CLE's for today's snow...ratios were certainly very high. I politely asked CLE on Facebook if they knew what happened with the snow in the climo reports (they've answered my questions on similar issues before) but haven't gotten a response yet...we'll see if they do say anything because it is odd.

 

There's decent potential for a very nice burst with the arctic front tonight as well, but most of us will be sleeping (I hope you're sleeping at 3-4AM tonight, although I was still up when you posted at 5AM today somehow)...but it could adversely impact the morning commute. I've heard many complaints that many communities aren't salting much up there due to a salt shortage.

[dta1984]

Seems like I did read on twitter about the salt shortage. I just came from the highland heights area, and on Wilson mills rd there's a dramatic difference once you cross into cuyahoga county. Wet roads there vs snow covered mostly in geauga county (except for 306). I'm sure that has to do with county vs city who does the roads though.

[OHweather]

Seems like I did read on twitter about the salt shortage. I just came from the highland heights area, and on Wilson mills rd there's a dramatic difference once you cross into cuyahoga county. Wet roads there vs snow covered mostly in geauga county (except for 306). I'm sure that has to do with county vs city who does the roads though.

Yeah, I notice that all the time, living right near where Cuyahoga, Geauga, Summit and Portage meet. Portage and Geauga are always worse.

 

While I still think the lake effect tomorrow afternoon/evening has the potential to drop more snow if it materializes...the snow squall and then gusty winds with the arctic front...to go along with rapidly falling temperatures...could make things really bad for the morning commute.

[BuffaloWeather]

One thing to mention, CLE is the abbreviation for the Airport and the NWS. They are not one in the same, but I can see the confusion in this thread as they are constantly referring to two separate entities. With that said, the "NWS CLE" does not measure snow at "CLE" and yes the "NWS CLE" has said in the past that snowfall totals at "CLE" could be underdone by 6-12" in a given year.

 

With that said, yes the airport is notoriously underdone for snowfall reporting. It's hard to understand why every snowfall measurement in the county yesterday was between 7 and 12 inches, yet the airport only had a hair over 4". It's more striking when you compare to the other "official observing" sites. CLE came in well below CAK despite being under considerably better radar returns all day.

 

And with regards to the criticism of the forecasts. They have been bad, hands down. You can go through each winter storm this season (those that occurred and those that were forecast to occur) and see that the verification rates for the Greater Cleveland area are running 20%. I'm sure for people who don't live here, it might seem like a broken record, but the reality is, that the vast majority of the forecasts here have been blown this winter. It really is unfortunate that the forecasts have been bad, but I'll try not to mention the shortcomings of forecasting here any more this winter.

 

How far apart are the airport and NWS? Here in Buffalo they are located very close to each other. I'd say 1/2 mile away from each other. The Buffalo NWS measures at there location and its the same total sent forth for KBuf airport. Also, why are they having amateurs measure snow at the airport for NWS reporting purposes?

[vpbob21]

Currently raining and 38 out here in Erie County. I guess the good news is that all the new snow we've seen the last few days has a crust on it and won't blow around.  The bad news is the roads will be awful the next couple days as all that water turns to ice later tonight.

 

Hopefully we can get an inch or two with the front but it looks like the heaviest is going to stay near the MI line and points north.

 

 

 

 

[OHweather]

Welcome to the forum vpbob21!

 

Little squall line has developed...LPR gusted to 54MPH and MFD to 52MPH as it blew through.

[Trent]

Talk about windy! Looks like the squalls just quickly blew through.

 

 

Well, there's no denying that something is wrong with the CLE climate summaries.

 

Yesterday's 0.9" of with 0.06" LE was reduced to 0.4" snow on 0.02" LE. Not sure why the hourly precip on the METARs would be reduced. But only 0.4" of snow yesterday pretty much proves the glaring inaccuracies going on with measuring at the airport.

 

...THE CLEVELAND OH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 26 2014...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1871 TO 2014


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 37 1159 PM 69 1950 35 2 24
MINIMUM 6 630 AM -9 1897 22 -16 16
AVERAGE 22 28 -6 20

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.02 0.08 -0.06 T
MONTH TO DATE 1.95 2.33 -0.38 1.15
SINCE DEC 1 6.05 5.43 0.62 5.08
SINCE JAN 1 1.95 2.33 -0.38 1.15

SNOWFALL (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.4 0.7 -0.3 T
MONTH TO DATE 21.6 15.7 5.9 4.6
SINCE DEC 1 39.1 29.8 9.3 19.8
SINCE JUL 1 43.8 34.3 9.5 20.1
SNOW DEPTH 5

[NEOH]

Crazy weather last night with the high winds. Temp spiked up to 35 at 2am. Hard to tell how much snow fell last night... I'll guesstimate 2"+  or so. It has been a snow week to say the least. Not often we get a synoptic storm, LES event, and 2 arctic frontal passages in such a short time frame.

 

The snowpack is nice and dense as the winds have compressed the snow. Looking at the long range it should be around for awhile.

 

Not sure what to expect lake effect wise today. Upstream looks great. The wild card is the ice cover. We have an ideal long fetch flow today so ice and high winds might be the only problems, and dry air of course. After last weeks LES event you can't rule anything out.

[NEOH]

How far apart are the airport and NWS? Here in Buffalo they are located very close to each other. I'd say 1/2 mile away from each other. The Buffalo NWS measures at there location and its the same total sent forth for KBuf airport. Also, why are they having amateurs measure snow at the airport for NWS reporting purposes?

The NWS office is a few hundred yards from the runway at CLE. Great spot for measuring snow.   

[OHweather]

BKL gusted to 52 knots last night and CLE gusted to 46 knots. Both were seeing decent snows when those gusts happened. Pretty intense. Lets see how the band south of Cleveland acts when winds go more W a bit later. I can't imagine last night's 60MPH west winds didn't move the ice a tiny bit more.

[NEOH]

BKL gusted to 52 knots last night and CLE gusted to 46 knots. Both were seeing decent snows when those gusts happened. Pretty intense. Lets see how the band south of Cleveland acts when winds go more W a bit later. I can't imagine last night's 60MPH west winds didn't move the ice a tiny bit more.

 

Nice view of the lake on visible satellite. Lot's of ice but definitely slush and open water out west. That band has a nice connection to lake michigan.

[Trent]

Nice band sitting over the airport. Currently they are reporting heavy snow. Winds should become increasingly more favorable as the day goes on for more of an east west band.

In terms of coldest Januaries on record, this January won't even come close to cracking the top ten. Coldest was 1977 which came in at 11.0 degrees, 10th place is 19.0 degrees in 1920. Currently the month is 22.7 degrees and will likely finish at about 21.