NEOH Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Picked up .4.... So I beat yesterday's .3. Went to bed last night and there was a heavy snow band sitting over the lake... Hopefully the combo of heavy snow and single digit temps doesn't ice over the open water. I'd bet the damage was done though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yesterday's climate report confirms the shoddy measurements at CLE. From last night's AFD: CLEVELAND HOPKINS AI 0.7 651 PM 1/17 TRAINED SPOTTER However, the climate report shows 1.3" falling on .13" liquid. There were only scattered flurries after 7 pm, so clearly one of those measurements is inaccurate. Looking at the METARs from yesterday, you can clearly see that they were having precip measurement issues: Obviously that 0.07" three hour total next to the 0.04" total is bogus. With temps near 40 and no precipitation to be found in the hours preceding, that doesn't make sense. Then the 0.13" 6 hourly total appears at 7pm (the same time that the spotter at the airport reported only 0.7" snow). So somebody overwrites any snow measurement by just applying a straight 10:1 ratio ... which I've noticed happens a lot. You can definitely take CLE's snow measurements with a grain of salt. More often than not this results in low balling of snow totals, so I'm not too concerned if this stays as is, because there were several other times this winter where the snowfall was under reported. The precip total is small enough as it is that to a casual observer it would go unnoticed and not look that suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yeah Cleveland is pretty terrible, I think they were saying only an inch on Thursday, we wound up with 4-5" along Route 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I could see mentioning the potential of "periods of heavy snow" instead of thunderstorms. Let's hope the hi res NAM is correct. It's been sunny most of the moring... sure wasn't expecting that. Conditions should deteriorate quickly later today. Seems like we've had a sustained SW wind for weeks now... so the any ice that forms probably gets pushed northeastward fairly quickly. There is definitely some open water to work with. Hoping we don't whiff with this one. Yep! Take a look at this wind chart for the past month. Perpetual SW winds. You can easily see the New Year's Day storm when winds went northeasterly for a day or two. An entire month in winter without any sustained Northerly or Northwesterly winds! Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yep! Take a look at this wind chart for the past month. Perpetual SW winds. You can easily see the New Year's Day storm when winds went northeasterly for a day or two. An entire month in winter without any sustained Northerly or Northwesterly winds! Insane. Amazing graph. Almost impossible to be as cold as it has been without a N or NW'erly wind for an extended time. Got a peek at the lake on the visible satellite. Lots of ice where the open water was... no surprise I guess. Despite where we are at snowfall wise the recent near misses and awful cold are making this a crappy January. The clipper looks to pass well to the south... where's the NW shift when we could use it?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Amazing graph. Almost impossible to be as cold as it has been without a N or NW'erly wind for an extended time. Got a peek at the lake on the visible satellite. Lots of ice where the open water was... no surprise I guess. Despite where we are at snowfall wise the recent near misses and awful cold are making this a crappy January. The clipper looks to pass well to the south... where's the NW shift when we could use it?! Anecdotally, it seems that the trend is clippers south and cutters northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Amazing graph. Almost impossible to be as cold as it has been without a N or NW'erly wind for an extended time. Got a peek at the lake on the visible satellite. Lots of ice where the open water was... no surprise I guess. Despite where we are at snowfall wise the recent near misses and awful cold are making this a crappy January. The clipper looks to pass well to the south... where's the NW shift when we could use it?! All things considered, it's been a pretty typical winter thus far. Snowfall has been slightly above normal to date, however if the euro and GFS are right, we'll slip slightly below normal by month's end. What's made this January brutal is that we've had major thaws and major freezes with no snow to accompany it, while areas 50 miles to the west have been buried and have avoided the numerous 50+ degree days that we've seen. Many of the climate sites in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, and Illinois have already hit their seasonal totals by mid January. That'd be like CLE sitting on 70" for the season thus far, instead of 35". So our halfway decent start to winter is muted by stations that average half as much as we do in a winter, but already have more snow than we do thus far. Basically we've had cold air masses sliding south out of the Prairies in Canada that then move eastward. That's given us the useless "cold southwesterly flow" that Buffalo thrives on. We need those cold air masses to slide south out of Ontario to provide us with a northwesterly flow. The damage has been done though. Even with a bit of open water we'll get some minor LES, but we're not going to see those 5 day totals of 16-24" anytime soon. At this point, it'd be nice to see a 2 week torch with daily highs in the 50s, then reload the cold and have it centered farther east this go around. CLE's snowfall bread and butter is enhancement. With a frozen Erie, that enhancement source is cut off for the foreseeable future. Perhaps we can sneak in a few Apps runners come February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Picked up a few more tenths of snow overnight. Ground is almost fully covered, so we should be able to maintain an inch snowpack through the week. Winter doldrums. Cold and dry with a chance for a few tenths of snow every day this week, there's not even a potential storm to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's enough water along the central lakeshore to get a band of snow tomorrow morning into the early afternoon...winds flip from W to NW along an arctic front with mid-level temps cooling pretty rapidly to go along with deep moisture. Hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's enough water along the central lakeshore to get a band of snow tomorrow morning into the early afternoon...winds flip from W to NW along an arctic front with mid-level temps cooling pretty rapidly to go along with deep moisture. Hmm The visible satellite looked promising. I think the models have a very tough time of discerning 0% ice cover from 30% ice cover from 100% ice cover. I don't want to get my hopes up too high, but this might sneak a chance at over performing. Snow cover around here ranges from a few tenths to an inch. Most sites are reporting 33 degrees tonight so even at this late hour what little snow is left is slowly melting away. We'll see if the high res models pull any hints shortly, I have a feeling they might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Got a view of the lake today flying out of CLE. There was much more open water than what I expected. The strong SW'erly wind must have pushed a lot of the ice around. I'm sure there will be a decent snowfall tomorrow since I'm out of town. Picked up just under an inch last night. Driving to the airport it was surprising to see the lack of snow cover. Sun and winds did a number on the fluff. Trent - Not sure if you remember... but I recall pics you posted a few years back (on eastern I believe) of south chagrin reservation during the long duration lake effect event. Do you remember what month/year that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 All things considered, it's been a pretty typical winter thus far. Snowfall has been slightly above normal to date, however if the euro and GFS are right, we'll slip slightly below normal by month's end. What's made this January brutal is that we've had major thaws and major freezes with no snow to accompany it, while areas 50 miles to the west have been buried and have avoided the numerous 50+ degree days that we've seen. Many of the climate sites in Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, and Illinois have already hit their seasonal totals by mid January. That'd be like CLE sitting on 70" for the season thus far, instead of 35". So our halfway decent start to winter is muted by stations that average half as much as we do in a winter, but already have more snow than we do thus far. Basically we've had cold air masses sliding south out of the Prairies in Canada that then move eastward. That's given us the useless "cold southwesterly flow" that Buffalo thrives on. We need those cold air masses to slide south out of Ontario to provide us with a northwesterly flow. The damage has been done though. Even with a bit of open water we'll get some minor LES, but we're not going to see those 5 day totals of 16-24" anytime soon. At this point, it'd be nice to see a 2 week torch with daily highs in the 50s, then reload the cold and have it centered farther east this go around. CLE's snowfall bread and butter is enhancement. With a frozen Erie, that enhancement source is cut off for the foreseeable future. Perhaps we can sneak in a few Apps runners come February. Pretty much sums up the winter so far. Nothing special IMO. We've yet to have a significant storm, or LES event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The visible satellite looked promising. I think the models have a very tough time of discerning 0% ice cover from 30% ice cover from 100% ice cover. I don't want to get my hopes up too high, but this might sneak a chance at over performing. Snow cover around here ranges from a few tenths to an inch. Most sites are reporting 33 degrees tonight so even at this late hour what little snow is left is slowly melting away. We'll see if the high res models pull any hints shortly, I have a feeling they might. They sort showed something. The NMM and ARW both show around 0.1" of QPF from eastern Cuyahoga into the Snowbelt. The issue is both of them show temperatures over much of the lake being as cold as or colder than the surrounding land through most of their runs which is crap. Given this I think they may be underdone on snow. We'll see, maybe a sneaky 2-3" event or so Monday late morning through the afternoon. Once the winds go NNW by tomorrow evening I think the lake effect shuts off in the Cleveland metro based on where the ice was today. There may still be some snow showers through Tuesday from Lake Huron and what little Lake Erie can add with a NNW flow but they won't be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Got a view of the lake today flying out of CLE. There was much more open water than what I expected. The strong SW'erly wind must have pushed a lot of the ice around. I'm sure there will be a decent snowfall tomorrow since I'm out of town. Picked up just under an inch last night. Driving to the airport it was surprising to see the lack of snow cover. Sun and winds did a number on the fluff. Trent - Not sure if you remember... but I recall pics you posted a few years back (on eastern I believe) of south chagrin reservation during the long duration lake effect event. Do you remember what month/year that was? It was January 3rd, 2010. There was about 18" that fell in a pretty narrow area. Of course there wasn't even a watch/advisory/warning out for that until it was almost over. Around these parts there are just as many good busts for Lake Effect as there are bad busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yesterday still managed to sneak up to 35 (forecast high was in the upper 20s). And to put more salt in the wounds it's 37 degrees this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 It was January 3rd, 2010. There was about 18" that fell in a pretty narrow area. Of course there wasn't even a watch/advisory/warning out for that until it was almost over. Around these parts there are just as many good busts for Lake Effect as there are bad busts. Thanks. For some reason I had thought totals were much higher... in the 20 -30" range. We'll see what the next few days brings... hopefully a good bust. I'm on the east coast the next few days so I'm pulling for a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Been spitting tiny flakes most of the morning. Hopefully this can transition into steadier snow later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's a nice band sliding south across Lake Erie. That should kick off some enhancement and hopefully some over performing LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Thanks. For some reason I had thought totals were much higher... in the 20 -30" range. We'll see what the next few days brings... hopefully a good bust. I'm on the east coast the next few days so I'm pulling for a coastal. It looks like you'll get your coastal. I may even get a couple inches or so in Athens from it. The totals were higher. He took those pictures that Sunday and heavy snow continued through Monday...I topped 30" in Solon from that whole event. And NWS CLE was horrible with it as Trent alluded to. If I recall correctly they were howling about a significant, long duration event several days out (which was correct) but as they often do they forgot how to forecast as the event actually got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 It looks like you'll get your coastal. I may even get a couple inches or so in Athens from it. The totals were higher. He took those pictures that Sunday and heavy snow continued through Monday...I topped 30" in Solon from that whole event. And NWS CLE was horrible with it as Trent alluded to. If I recall correctly they were howling about a significant, long duration event several days out (which was correct) but as they often do they forgot how to forecast as the event actually got closer. I'm in NYC so it will be interesting. Wow... didn't realize that Solon received so much snow from that event. We'll probably have to wait until next year for our next opportunity at an event like that. I also remember there was a sharp gradient North to South. I "only" had a foot or so in Lyndhurst yet just a few miles SE there was more than double. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm in NYC so it will be interesting. Wow... didn't realize that Solon received so much snow from that event. We'll probably have to wait until next year for our next opportunity at an event like that. I also remember there was a sharp gradient North to South. I "only" had a foot or so in Lyndhurst yet just a few miles SE there was more than double.Yeah, the latest NAM has you riding the northern edge, it'll be a nail biter.That event came in a couple of stages that both favored Solon nicely. Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon we were in a very cold but rather dry WNW flow. Luckily the open lake, extreme instability and convergence along the western lakeshore overcame the dry air and we were under a heavy band off and on that dropped about 15" through Saturday afternoon. CLE finally issued an advisory Saturday morning for a few hours. The next phase came Sunday morning through Tuesday morning on a very moist NW to NNW flow with shortwaves rotating through about twice a day. That flow definitely favored inland locales and we were under pretty steady moderate to heavy snow with just a couple of breaks for almost 48 hours. It really was an epic event for "Solon standards". CLE finally caught on Sunday evening and put Cuyahoga under a warning. What's funny is the December 2010 event that dumped on downtown edged out that event by a little bit in Solon 11 months later. Oh how I miss those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's a nice band sliding south across Lake Erie. That should kick off some enhancement and hopefully some over performing LES. It seems to have lost its punch after it got inland. Hopefully it flares back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It seems to have lost its punch after it got inland. Hopefully it flares back up. That was a dud. It looks like there's something over the lake trying to fire again. 3 of the SREF plumes try to give CLE 4-6" of snow overnight, the other 15 keep us dry. Snow cover outside is weak all over Cuyahoga County. Driving around today there's basically less than an inch everywhere. You can call it a trace or you can call it an inch (if you want to round 0.6" of patchy snow cover up?) I thought for sure we'd get enough to at least coat the ground again, so if tonight and tomorrow don't produce it will be very interesting to watch what the temperatures do. I think it'd be an incredible feat for CLE to drop below zero with the lack of snow out there. It seems as if LES has been non existent for the past month. Has Geauga County even had a LES event more than 8" this winter? It seems like they missed the brunt of the October snows and only managed to squeeze out 3-5" events up until Christmas week when the lake effect machine shut off around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It has been disappointing watching the radar up there today. A little more activity now as mentioned so we'll see. I'd have to think places in western Geauga near 322 (ie Chesterland) got close to 8-10" in the October event, but other than that it really has just been a bunch of modest events. Strange LES season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's odd to see the snowfall over the lake die out as it moves SE. Normally you would see returns increase over the higher ground. That's been happening quite a bit lately. Winds have turned NE'erly so all of the ice to the north should push to the southern lakeshore. Not sure how much impact that will have... regardless, it's probably fair to say the ice is really hurting moisture flux. I haven't have a LES over 6" for the season... and that came in October. Definitely not normal. The perpetual SW flow hurt every opportunity. Hopefully you guys seem some snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ya it is hard to believe with the amount of snow we've had thus far (approaching 60" I believe) that there hasn't been a big storm. I think there was one around 7" non les and the October storm, but the rest have been nickel and dimed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This season thus far hasn't been a synoptic snow wasteland by Cleveland standards. YES, there have been a couple of painful misses for sure, but there was a good 3-6" on 12/14 and another good 8-14" from 1/1-1/3, with a the majority of that falling on the third. It's the big LES event that's been missing. I think this would've been a good week for it had the lake not been frozen. Even with that said, there was one event that I'd argue was rather epic given the time of year in October, a couple of surprises that dropped a few inches, but no really good, long duration event. If we took two or three of the nuisance events and traded them in for one bigger event I think a lot of us would be happier. Although I must say, I'm still jealous of those of you that got hit good with the October snow, I have a fetish for out of season snowstorms and that was a pretty good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There's been a decent Huron band into Erie County for a couple hours now. Radar suggests you may see an inch or two of synoptic after all by mid morning...will be interesting to hear if you guys wake up to anything. As the winds shift north...if the Huron band can maintain...it would shift into Lorain County and have a chunk of open water to work with. So Erie and Lorain Counties may end up being the big "winners" funny enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There's been a decent Huron band into Erie County for a couple hours now. Radar suggests you may see an inch or two of synoptic after all by mid morning...will be interesting to hear if you guys wake up to anything. As the winds shift north...if the Huron band can maintain...it would shift into Lorain County and have a chunk of open water to work with. So Erie and Lorain Counties may end up being the big "winners" funny enough. Meh. Looks like about 0.4" fell overnight. There's now enough snow for me to go from a trace to 1 inch, however the grass is still poking through. The winter in Cleveland thus far has been pretty average. It just seems bad because most places already hit their seasonal snowfall total last week. When ORD and DTW are whipping CLE in the snowfall totals department in late January, something's gone wrong here. Even Chicago has had more LES than Cleveland this year. CLE will struggle to hit 68" of snow by the end of the season without much help from Lake Erie. Had we had this airmass before the last arctic plunge we would have done well, but the constant cold SW flow killed us for most of January. Unless there's some mega March 2008 style snow bomb, I'm betting CLE is one of maybe two or three sites that come in with below normal snowfall this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 I was hoping to see higher snowfall from you guys this morning. Hopefully a few inches will fall today. Odd to see the huron band so far west. Looking forward to the coastal here in NYC. 8-12" in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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