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First 80 Degree Readings Of Spring This Week

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

The 0z Euro has caved to the GFS later next week as well. 70s for NYC SW on Wednesday. 75F+ for NNJ and 80F+ CNJ, on Thursday.

 

The 0z Euro control run was even further north with the warm front, mid-week. 75F+ away from the immediate coast on Wednesday. 80F+ inland from NJ to SW CT on Thursday.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Tuesday might be the warmest day for coastal locations. The 06z NAM and the Euro show this, with temps in the 70's (except for right at the beach) and very weak onshore flow. Regarding Wednesday, the Euro still keeps coastal locations warm while the NAM cools us with strong onshore flow. Thursday looks to be the warmest day for inland locations, and also coastal locations on the Euro. It shows 80's inland and 70's for LI, however, there is very strong onshore flow Thursday on the Euro.

 

My forecast highs for here:

Today: 54°F

Monday: 66°F

Tuesday: 76°F

Wednesday: 75°F

Thursday: 74°F (early high)

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

The 12z GFS MEX for next week. NYC 81 and EWR 82 on Wed. TEB 80-84 on Tues-Thurs:

 

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/07/2013  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14|MON CLIMO N/X  48  70| 57  77| 62  81| 62  79| 53  60| 41  58| 40  61| 43 42 59 TMP  51  61| 60  68| 65  72| 65  69| 55  53| 42  50| 43  53| 47       DPT  45  48| 53  50| 54  53| 55  51| 43  34| 26  24| 25  27| 30   KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/07/2013  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14|MON CLIMO N/X  47  67| 55  76| 60  82| 61  79| 53  62| 41  58| 38  60| 42 41 60 TMP  51  62| 58  71| 64  74| 64  69| 55  54| 44  51| 43  53| 47       DPT  44  48| 52  49| 55  53| 55  49| 40  35| 27  22| 24  25| 32  KTEB   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/07/2013  1200 UTC                        FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192            MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12| SAT 13| SUN 14|MON CLIMO N/X  47  72| 54  80| 57  84| 58  80| 52  61| 39  57| 36  62| 40 41 60 TMP  52  63| 57  70| 61  73| 63  69| 53  53| 43  50| 42  54| 45       DPT  44  45| 52  48| 54  53| 52  48| 40  34| 26  22| 25  25| 32
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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

The NAM from this afternoon had 850mb temperatures approaching 20 c over New Jersey on Wednesday which is extremely anomalous (and impressive) for this time of year.

 

I don't think we are out of the woods with the warm front getting hung up just yet, but the models have trended away from the big upper level low meandering over SE Canada. That pretty much changes the game and gives the WF room to move into Central NY State.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f84.gif

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

I think there should be a rather noticeable seabreeze developing tomorrow after the warm start via the SW flow. The NAM looks a little warm given the 10m winds out of the southeast after 18z. I would expect the development of some low clouds and maybe even drizzle with the marine layer along the coast by around 00-03z Tuesday morning/tomorrow night.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/f27.gif

 

The hi-res NAM is starting to pick up on it after 22z

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/temp28.gif

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Tuesday on the other hand looks very warm to me. 10m winds shift to west by 15z which should really help to mitigate any onshore flow.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/wind45.gif

 

850mb temperatures increase to 10+c south of the warm front. The high resolution NAM now has temperatures of around 80 degrees in NYC between 18 and 21z on Tuesday.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/temp51.gif

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Weathergun

Weathergun

Posted
Posted

Tuesday on the other hand looks very warm to me. 10m winds shift to west by 15z which should really help to mitigate any onshore flow.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/wind45.gif

 

850mb temperatures increase to 10+c south of the warm front. The high resolution NAM now has temperatures of around 80 degrees in NYC between 18 and 21z on Tuesday.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/temp51.gif

 

Very steep lapse rates, mixing up 850mb, and decent W-NW flow by late afternoon. I think JFK could take a run at 75F+ with this sounding. :

 

9j0y10.jpg

 

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

18z NAM has 80's spreading into central LI on Wednesday. Going to be short lived though because a sea breeze is guaranteed to form with temps that warm.

 

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/7052/f72.gif

 

The wind direction is just as important and the warmth of the temperatures doesn't really have much to do with the strength of the seabreeze. The big warmth will be short lived along the immediate shoreline this time of year but the 10m winds are westerly which suggests the seabreeze may not move inland.

 

Notice how even at 00z (post sunset) temperatures are still very warm west of NYC. This is because there is no seabreeze penetrating anywhere inland. The W-SW flow only hurts areas such as central to eastern Long Island because that's the only place the wind is coming off of the cool waters.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/f78.gif

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

The wind direction is just as important and the warmth of the temperatures doesn't really have much to do with the strength of the seabreeze. The big warmth will be short lived along the immediate shoreline this time of year but the 10m winds are westerly which suggests the seabreeze may not move inland.

 

Notice how even at 00z (post sunset) temperatures are still very warm west of NYC. This is because there is no seabreeze penetrating anywhere inland. The W-SW flow only hurts areas such as central to eastern Long Island because that's the only place the wind is coming off of the cool waters.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_18z/f78.gif

 

Thanks for the clarification. I'm well aware that the sea breeze is a warmth killer out here. On Wednesday, 10m winds are out the WSW/SW here, which make me feel skeptical of those 80 degree temps lasting. The flow acquires a more southerly component by 21z which cools us from the 80's at 18z, to low 70's at 21z.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the clarification. I'm well aware that the sea breeze is a warmth killer out here. On Wednesday, 10m winds are out the WSW/SW here, which make me feel skeptical of those 80 degree temps lasting. The flow acquires a more southerly component by 21z which cools us from the 80's at 18z, to low 70's at 21z.

 

This time of year can be very frustrating out on the island. I think Tue-Wed will be warm at least initally through the early morning and afternoon especially across Western Long Island. But Central and Eastern LI are going to struggle with the wind direction. You really need a stiff offshore flow out of the west-northwest to warm up the central and eastern island this time of year.

 

But areas like NYC and EWR could really bake especially on Wednesday if the thermal gradient ends up north of us. The west-southwesterly winds and 850mb temperatures going over 15 C are a great signal for 80 degree warmth this time of year in that area.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

This time of year can be very frustrating out on the island. I think Tue-Wed will be warm at least initally through the early morning and afternoon especially across Western Long Island. But Central and Eastern LI are going to struggle with the wind direction. You really need a stiff offshore flow out of the west-northwest to warm up the central and eastern island this time of year.

 

But areas like NYC and EWR could really bake especially on Wednesday if the thermal gradient ends up north of us. The west-southwesterly winds and 850mb temperatures going over 15 C are a great signal for 80 degree warmth this time of year in that area.

 

Yes, exactly. It is why I'm looking more forward to Tuesday than Wednesday. Tuesday will have plenty of offshore flow. The 4-km NAM has me maxing at around 77,78 on Tuesday. We'll know tomorrow what the 4-km will do for LI on Wednesday.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Each NAM run keeps getting better and better. Now 80's for LI on Tuesday on the 4-km. The 12km NAM has low to mid 80's for NYC/LI on Wednesday, weak onshore flow, actually have offshore flow in the early afternoon.

 

The power of the W flow. Develops by 15z Tuesday and suppresses the seabreeze/acts to really work with the warming 850mb temperatures.

 

temp42.gif

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Each NAM run keeps getting better and better. Now 80's for LI on Tuesday on the 4-km. The 12km NAM has low to mid 80's for NYC/LI on Wednesday, weak onshore flow, actually have offshore flow in the early afternoon.

Models often underdo high temps this early in the spring, since leaves haven't blossomed from the trees, transpiration has no effect on temps and models usually miss it. I think a day or even two in the 80s is quite possible for the city, from the Grand Central Parkway north most likely. If west winds can persist long enough, even the coast can get well into the 70s.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Pretty good agreement in the models now of the backdoor cold front arriving Wednesday night

into early Thursday.

 

attachicon.giff54.gif

 

attachicon.giff78.gif

Yuck. By far my least favorite moments of Spring are when the backdoor front comes in (sometimes you can even see the level of stratus approach you), and when the wind changes direction from a nice west wind to a roaring, cold south wind.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

Euro is pumping the ridge in the long range

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

It's still quite cold for the end of this week, then a slow moderation until day 9 or so.

 

It brings a shot of very heavy rain through Friday night as a surface low develops along the frontal boundry.

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