bluewave Posted April 4, 2013 Author Share Posted April 4, 2013 The Euro trending toward more west based blocking really shortens the duration of the warm up for early next week before the back door cold front drops down. That boundary looks like it will be the focus for impulses riding up from the SW time to time through the 5- 10 day outlook. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Sunday could be sneak warm day, with steeping lapse rates and a deepening SW flow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 With the system now progged to miss our area to the south and east on Friday, I wouldn't be surprised to see overperforming high temperatures on northwest winds and 850 temperatures around 1-2 C during peak heating. You can see the NAM starting to pick up on this potential with temperatures near 60 in NE NJ. They get to 60+ the next frame over much of Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Sunday could be sneak warm day, with steeping lapse rates and a deepening SW flow: Looks like a small 70 degree spot around Newark too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 The new 18z DGEX remains very warm all week http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 18z DGEX doesn't look all that bad for coastal locations for Monday and Tuesday. Winds are mostly out of the W and WSW, which could help a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 18z GFS trended towards the Euro with the upper level low north of New England flattening the flow. Check out the h85 thermal gradient it now has...this would bring some significant problems if you want a warm up that lasts the entire week http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 18z GFS trended towards the Euro with the upper level low north of New England flattening the flow. Check out the h85 thermal gradient it now has...this would bring some significant problems if you want a warm up that lasts the entire week http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f150.gif It would still be warmer than the Euro at least but I'm not surprised to see it trend towards the Euro, that could continue in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Sunday and Monday look beautiful, but after that we might have some problems. Euro seems to have the hot hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Overnight Friday into Saturday looks cold to me...the models have trended strong with the front. NAM has -10 C 850 temperatures once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Sunday and Monday look beautiful, but after that we might have some problems. Euro seems to have the hot hand Tonight's gfs really confirms those issues regarding how warm we get and how long we warm up. Gfs also cooled down Sunday and Monday somewhat and Tuesday and Wednesday look much cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Tonight's gfs really confirms those issues regarding how warm we get and how long we warm up. Gfs also cooled down Sunday and Monday somewhat and Tuesday and Wednesday look much cooler. Tuesday is well into the 60's over NJ...it's NYC and east that has a problem on Tuesday. But Wednesday, the backdoor front is all the way to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Tuesday is well into the 60's over NJ...it's NYC and east that has a problem on Tuesday. But Wednesday, the backdoor front is all the way to PHL. Almost always the GFS has issues with those fronts and the higher res NAM does better. The fact that the GFS at this range is so strong with the backdoor leads me to think that it means business. Will wait to see what the NAM shows closer in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Almost always the GFS has issues with those fronts and the higher res NAM does better. The fact that the GFS at this range is so strong with the backdoor leads me to think that it means business. Will wait to see what the NAM shows closer in range. Any time you see the higher pressures nosing down through New England, it's cause for concern. I think Monday is a sure fire warm day at this point, as is Sunday. Tuesday will probably be the beginning of the issues when we see the surface high slip offshore. The GFS trended towards the Euro in that regard today. So with the Sfc high offshore you can start to see some of the models showing the classic back door frontal signature. Looks like a classic one...marine air could infiltrate from New England to NJ Tue Night and stay there through Thursday if these model ideas are correct. The only thing that would scour it out after that would be the small warm sector ahead of the front late week with strong SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Strongly agree w/ the above posts. Sun/Mon have 60-70F potential, then backdoor issues Tue-Thur, and we probably break out it Friday, which could be the mildest day of the week within the warm sector (prior to FROPA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 On Sunday we have a chance at getting in small warm sector (away from the coast) with a system running well to NW. After that models really diverge. The 0z ECMWF last night is actually warmer for next week overall. We only truly backdoored on Wednesday and Thursday. Before the Candian ULL, shifts far enough east to allow the front to return north again on Friday. The 0z and 6z GFS still elongates and splits the Canadian ULL. So much that it allows the heights to build more to our west. Which in turn, keeps many of us backdoored for most of the week. This is now the worst than the ECMWF solution. Which keeps ULL more compact and doesn't flatten the heights too much until it shifts east, later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The RAP is very warm this afternoon across Northeast NJ. The northwest winds also suggest the warmth could get into the city and near the coast today, whereas the usual south-southeast winds will make it tougher next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 The the day 11-15 models runs saw the SE Ridge but missed the strength of the block to the north and back door cold front. But I guess that's the result of models trying to break the block down too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 GFS has flipped back to the old solution and is at odds with the Euro on Tuesday and Wed...with temps over 75 in NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 0z GFS near 70 and higher for many on Tuesday with a WSW flow: Then near 80 for CNJ on Wednedsay, with the front over NNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 06z NAM has 80's near Philly. Also weak onshore flow can help coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 06z DGEX has widespread 80's away from the coast on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 The CMC and DGEX shows what could happen, if we don't have the backdoor front. 80+ for inland spots into SNE on Wednesday. However, the past poor performance from these models, makes me skeptical: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 The fact that nearly every other Operational Model is less aggressive with the BDCF signal than the 0z ECMWF leads me to question the ECMWF solution, especially when it's own Ensembles are significantly warmer than it's Operational run. This is the Operational Run at hour 120. Note that 850s are generally around 5 C around the New York City Metro area. It's Ensemble Mean is quite a bit warmer than the Operational Solution, with 850s close to 9 Degrees C in the New York City Metro Region, indicating that there are likely quite a few members in the mix that are significantly warmer than the ECMWF Operational Solution, and similar to a DGEX/CMC/GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 SREF mean is very warm on Tuesday for this range...and some members are well into the 80's over the I95 corridor http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21TMPNE_9z/f81.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 April 16-18th, the 0z Euro control run has maxes 80F+, all three days, over NE NJ and NYC. On the 17th, the 85F contour, is poking into W-CNJ. It continues with the ridge, at that the Euro op has by 240hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 12z NAM is really nice for coastal locations with winds coming out of the W/WNW. This could help LI significantly from being cloudy and cool. The NAM is also picking up on some convective precip Tuesday night. May be tracking our first thunderstorms of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 It was looking before that Sunday might be a sneaky warm there But the flow looks more southerly. NYC east, will have tough time getting out of the 50s. The 0z GFS now has more widespread warmth for Wednesday. 75F+ for NNJ, NYC metro. 80F+ for CNJ The 0z CMC has widespread 80F for inland spots on Thursday too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 The 0z Euro has caved to the GFS later next week as well. 70s for NYC SW on Wednesday. 75F+ for NNJ and 80F+ CNJ, on Thursday. 82F+ for Newark area on Thursday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 The models are indicating that we could see the first 80 degree readings of spring this week. This is an interesting pattern since the first 80 degree day in April since 2000 usually hasn't happened with such strong blocking to the north. First April 80 since 2000 (12 Dates) Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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