SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Models will be all over the place until the energy moves inland at least. I mean just look at the massive changes run to run on the gfs for example, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This run is terrible for everyone on the coast. It's a non-event as far as snow goes for everyone except the mountains of WNC...where nobody lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What a crappy model! Is there any support for this new horrid development of the missing northern stream energy which is what turns the trough negative on the Euro and other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Models will be all over the place until the energy moves inland at least. I mean just look at the massive changes run to run on the gfs for example, crazy. The thing is though its not the energy coming in from the west coast thats the problem, its the northern stream in canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like phase is off the table, now we just need more latitude as it goes across the states. Still possible, 00z NAM looked good in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The thing is though its not the energy coming in from the west coast thats the problem, its the northern stream in canada. Bingo, makes me puke that the models had to give us a glimpse of what a full phase could do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like phase is off the table, now we just need more latitude as it goes across the states. Still possible, 00z NAM looked good in that regard. Why is it off the Table cause the inconsistent GFS says so 5 days out ? I am not writing nothing off until Monday at earliest especially when numerous models and model runs have shown some sort of phase past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks like phase is off the table, now we just need more latitude as it goes across the states. Still possible, 00z NAM looked good in that regard. 12z gfs showed us what would happen.... its a snow to rain scenario. therefore we need some northern stream interaction. Bingo, makes me puke that the models had to give us a glimpse of what a full phase could do... a phase would be a snow weenies dream if the block is orientated favorably. did you see last nights euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Wait until Sunday night before we comment on this storm. Until the trough hits the NW coast the data is too sparse for the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM is well south at 120 hours http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif It then rides northeast from there at 144 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Not sure what happens between 120-144.Much stronger and further north than the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 TBH, besides the lack of the northern stream whatsoever, at least the storm is a little slower on the 0z which if true can give a little more time to have the energy phase in (hopefully the models bring it back). Plus, the confluence is further east which helps. Realistically though, without that energy in canada our odds of getting this storm to come north diminish greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What a crappy model! Is there any support for this new horrid development of the missing northern stream energy which is what turns the trough negative on the Euro and other models? has nay model been the same? the euro shifted every run for 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 has nay model been the same? the euro shifted every run for 2 days Not like this.. Look at 500mb between 18z and 0z... It doesnt even look like the same month, let alone same storm and same model! Euro had one aberrant run where the low moved 500 mi north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ukie looks like the GFS. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS well north of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 It's a non-event as far as snow goes for everyone except the mountains of WNC...where nobody liveslol people live here. A big event will continue to keep the ski slopes open well into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS well north of the op Good, I have no worries about how the models are handling this right now. By Monday 0z I would start to worry if the solution was the same as now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 ggem is slightly north of gfs, but what it does not do is fade it to the E..it hooks back as it heads ENE but its just too far off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree. Climo alone point against this being a major snowstorm for NC/VA. I think everyone will win in the end. Good, I have no worries about how the models are handling this right now. By Monday 0z I would start to worry if the solution was the same as now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Still a lot of time to work this out, so no one should toaster bath yet. But like people have been saying, the coast absolutely does not want or need the slow, closed off low solution that can pound waves and surge in for 1-2 days. Hopefully if that does happen it closes off well offshore so that we can all have NE or N winds at least, and cold air for snow. A long duration storm with E winds gusting to 60mph+ could be very damaging to communities hit hard by Sandy, regardless of the moon phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree. Climo alone point against this being a major snowstorm for NC/VA. I think everyone will win in the end. I guess everyone outside of NC/VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Hows Euro looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks pretty amped (on my phone though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I agree. Climo alone point against this being a major snowstorm for NC/VA. I think everyone will win in the end. unfortunately guidance doesnt care about climo right now. euro is a huge VA hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Time is running out on this . We are now down to 5 days or 120 hours and virtually all guidance tonight from the NAVGEM to the ECM is in agreement with this being south and east. The guidance certainly has not trended good since 12 Z runs earlier in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Looks pretty amped (on my phone though) amped for north NC and VA. never climbs north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 144 Hr....Heading east and rapidly....I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 144 Hr....Heading east and rapidly....I'm not buying it. Same here, It actually looks like it goes southeast into the Atlantic, cant remember seeing a low do that that far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Time is running out on this . We are now down to 5 days or 120 hours and virtually all guidance tonight from the NAVGEM to the ECM is in agreement with this being south and east. The guidance certainly has not trended good since 12 Z runs earlier in the afternoon 24 hours out from the 2/8 storm, in a situation just about as complex as this, models had immediate NYC as ranging from a sloppy mix to 2+ feet of snow. I wouldn't get hung up on a solution until the end of the weekend if not Monday. TONS of time left on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 24 hours out from the 2/8 storm, in a situation just about as complex as this, models had immediate NYC as ranging from a sloppy mix to 2+ feet of snow. I wouldn't get hung up on a solution until the end of the weekend if not Monday. TONS of time left on this. Exactly, the storm a few weeks ago shifted 200 miles south 18 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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