MJO812 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 GGEM ensemble mean is southeast of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingwill42 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I will take every Model Run with a Grain of Salt until Monday. Track and precip type will fluctuate for at least the next 48 hrs. What looks ineviidable is this Storm will develop into a monster. If it keeps Developing like it looks to be(showing 2-3 inches of QPF already) will be interesting once the Nam and other short range guidance come into play I bet there will be some ludicrous precip totals 24-48 hrs prior to the start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The 18z GFS doesn't look as robust with the surface reflection at hour 99 as the 12z GFS did at hour 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The 18z GFS doesn't look as robust with the surface reflection at hour 99 as the 12z GFS did at hour 105. The ULL in Maine is squashing the heights on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The ULL in Maine is squashing the heights on the coast. Agree. This run will be considerably more suppressed than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GFS simply phases too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 man, the consistency of the GFS run to run is amazing. LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 EURO hasnt been to steady. Actaully all models have been flipping like a fish out of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The ULL kinda clings onto Maine a lot long which suppresses heights, kinda funky how it hangs around that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 man, the consistency of the GFS run to run is amazing. LOL... In reality..none of the models have been really consistent. The 0z Euro from this morning made a 500 mile jump to the north (hardly consistent) With that said there seems to be agreement between the 12z Euro, Euro Ensembles, and GFS Ensembles that this storm will be a glancing blow to our area. Plenty of time for things to change though, a small change in the upper air pattern and this storm comes north once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We are still 5-6 days out so this is to be expected and right now I actually want to see it south and east because the trend this winter has been north and west as the storm approaches. We have seen some of the models move storms hundreds of miles 24 hours out so at 130 it should be normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I actually like the look of the storm much better on 18z with how the temp are set up. Seems much colder closer to the center. 850s also barley budge west unlike in the 12z, its especially impressive since its way out over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I actually like the look of the storm much better on 18z with how the temp are set up. Seems much colder closer to the center. 850s also barley budge west unlike in the 12z.. This is because the phase happens too late and the trough does not go negative in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 . This is because the phase happens too late and the trough does not go negative in time Well yea obviously, my point is the best scenario is a phase in-between 12 and 18z. That would put the storm about 150 miles WNW and we should get creamed. Also the cold air is slightly less stale this run before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The 18z NAVGEM just came north. Honestly, this model has been leading the way so far. The Euro has followed every move it has made so far. Below are the previous run at 150 and 156 hrs and the new run at 144 and 150 hrs. for comparison purposes. And by the way, this looks very similar to the Euro control run with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GEFS mean is west of the operational run. Nice hit.http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12120.gif'>http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12120.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12132.gif'>http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...emblep12132.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72144.gifTotal precip. .50+ for NYC with more to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Precip shield on the GFS ensemble mean is WAY WEST and North of the operational run. Not even in the same ball park. Main preicip shield into southern NY state and back to central PA. It then consolidates and absolutely crushes from Trenton to Asbury Park and Long Island south. Wow. WAY different than the operational run. .50-.75 for Northern NJ, southern New York State, then .75-1.00 from Trenton to Asbury Park line and just south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18z GEFS mean is west of the operational run. Nice hit. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12120.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12132.gif Very nice, very close to best case scenario for us. Some of the individual member must be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Precip shield on the GFS ensemble mean is WAY WEST and North of the operational run. Not even in the same ball park. Main preicip shield into southern NY state and back to central PA. It then consolidates and absolutely crushes from Trenton to Asbury Park and Long Island south. Wow. WAY different than the operational run. .50-.75 for Northern NJ, southern New York State, then .75-1.00 from Trenton to Asbury Park line and just south of Long Island. .75 is close to the south shore of the area http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Precip shield on the GFS ensemble mean is WAY WEST and North of the operational run. Not even in the same ball park. Main preicip shield into southern NY state and back to central PA. It then consolidates and absolutely crushes from Trenton to Asbury Park and Long Island south. Wow. WAY different than the operational run. .50-.75 for Northern NJ, southern New York State, then .75-1.00 from Trenton to Asbury Park line and just south of Long Island. In cases like this, the precipitation shield is always going to be more broad on the ensemble means. There will be some members that are very amped up, and some that are very far south and east. So what you get is a monster-looking precipitation shield. That being said, the important thing to watch is the track of the surface low on the ensemble means and the trends over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 In cases like this, the precipitation shield is always going to be more broad on the ensemble means. There will be some members that are very amped up, and some that are very far south and east. So what you get is a monster-looking precipitation shield. That being said, the important thing to watch is the track of the surface low on the ensemble means and the trends over the next few days. Yeah, about half of the individual members are really nice hits, and about half are misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zynlamar Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The 18z NAVGEM just came north. Honestly, this model has been leading the way so far. The Euro has followed every move it has made so far. Below are the previous run at 150 and 156 hrs and the new run at 144 and 150 hrs. for comparison purposes. And by the way, this looks very similar to the Euro control run with the precip shield. Can I get a link for this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 It looks like the first call for us will be once this reaches the PAC NW on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Man even though the end solution might not be good for NYC and SNE seeing a piece of the confluence break off and phase with the shortwave (like the 12z GFS did) would be something awesome to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Theres so many details that can change the storm. Theres a jumbled mess over the great lakes. What happens there determines how the storm plays out. This is going to be a forecasters nightmare up to 24hrs out imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Can I get a link for this model https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013030118∏=prpτ=144&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 In cases like this, the precipitation shield is always going to be more broad on the ensemble means. There will be some members that are very amped up, and some that are very far south and east. So what you get is a monster-looking precipitation shield. That being said, the important thing to watch is the track of the surface low on the ensemble means and the trends over the next few days. The key here though, is that despite the 18z Operational being considerably southeast of the 12z run, the 18z GEFS are considerably NW of the Operational, and the 12z GEFS, which was SE of the 12z Operational. The GEFS shifting quite a bit NW is a pretty big red flag for the southern operational solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GFS is ugly. Completely detached from the northern stream which vanished this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yep. No northern stream interaction at all. On the plus side. The upper low and confluence moved out of the north east. Just need that northern stream peice to phase in and bring her north. Which is conpletly gone this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This run is terrible for everyone on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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