Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This first guess is bad guessing in the NYC metro - DT should know better for instance if southern somerset county NJ is in the 1 -3 inch category northern middlesex above the raritan and points north through NE NJ should be too - or put southern somerset in the 1 inch category.......... https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/806327076081219/?type=1&theater His first call map is very different. Up to an inch nw of NYC. 1-3" nw NJ only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Very interesting take on the rest of the month by Larry Cosgrove https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Very interesting take on the rest of the month by Larry Cosgrove https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica He's a pretty fair forecaster IMO; I recall how he got the rain / snow line on the February 5, 2001 event within about 5 miles...which was a superb bit of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 He's a pretty fair forecaster IMO; I recall how he got the rain / snow line on the February 5, 2001 event within about 5 miles...which was a superb bit of forecasting I actually remember hearing about that story not too long ago. This was second-hand, but I heard that there was a significant debate going on regarding where exactly the R/S line would park itself during that storm within the private sector mets in addition to the models at the time. He's been pretty great during the past decade or so that I can remember reading his outlooks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I actually remember hearing about that story not too long ago. This was second-hand, but I heard that there was a significant debate going on regarding where exactly the R/S line would park itself during that storm within the private sector mets in addition to the models at the time. He's been pretty great during the past decade or so that I can remember reading his outlooks *Definitely recall him drawing one of his invisible lines through Syosset NY.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Yeah and his 1-3 is way too far south Need DT to be right for once. Starting to get the feeling he has another huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 19, 2015 Share Posted January 19, 2015 I happen to like Bernie Rayno. He seems to always tell it as it is. He likes 1-3" north of I-78 with possible lollies up to 5". http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweather-live-watch-now/37526061 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bernie Rayno http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snow-to-cause-slippery-travel/2430839568001?channel=top_story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bernie Rayno http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/snow-to-cause-slippery-travel/2430839568001?channel=top_story Very fair forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB brings up a good point, that the very warm water off the NE coast argues for the ridge further west and thus a further west track of the weekend storm...he uses some of the rainers that we've recently had as an example of storms tracking further west than earlier progged. (now we have to hope that this does not end up as an inland runner which would give us mostly rain especially along the coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB brings up a good point, that the very warm water off the NE coast argues for the ridge further west and thus a further west track of the weekend storm...he uses some of the rainers that we've recently had as an example of storms tracking further west than earlier progged. (now we have to hope that this does not end up as an inland runner which would give us mostly rain especially along the coast)inland runner... Not happening. There's like a 2% chance of that happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 inland runner... Not happening. There's like a 2% chance of that happening! Careful there. That's been the winter trend with the ridge off the coast. Some said last Monday was snow or no and we all got mostly rain (outside of some ice the first hour or so) Not saying it will happen, and certainly hope it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Careful there. That's been the winter trend. Some said last Monday was snow or no and we all got mostly rain (outside of some ice the first hour or so) Not saying it will happen, and certainly hope it doesn't.it was Sunday and you can go back to the threads and all I predicted was an ice event changing to heavy rain. That storm was way different. It developed late. This storm makes it own cold air, and developing over the gulf. Classic miller A. These storms historically have dropped the most snow nyc has ever gotten. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 it was Sunday and you can go back to the threads and all I predicted was an ice event changing to heavy rain. That storm was way different. It developed late. This storm makes it own cold air, and developing over the gulf. Classic miller A. These storms historically have dropped the most snow nyc has ever gotten. Sent from my iPhone Agree with you, but no solution is set in stone 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Agree with you, but no solution is set in stone 4-5 days out.i agree but there is a 70% chance now this storm does give us at least some snow. I want it all or nothing though hahahaSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB says on twitter that each storm (sat and Mon/Tue) could each bring 6-12 with jackpots to 15 somewhere b/w DCA and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB says on twitter that each storm (sat and Mon/Tue) could each bring 6-12 with jackpots to 15 somewhere b/w DCA and BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Don't spike yet. Still a ways to go here. (and when has JB met a threat he doesnt like) (Still havent forgotten his 2 feet from BDR to BOS last March) and why are subscribers having to go on twitter to hear his thoughts? Pro site has nothing...annoying to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB says on twitter that each storm (sat and Mon/Tue) could each bring 6-12 with jackpots to 15 somewhere b/w DCA and BOS. I listened to him and he never said that! He did say there could be rain issues in big cities Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I listened to him and he never said that! He did say there could be rain issues in big cities Rossi Read my post...it's on twitter now. I didn't make it up for Cripe's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 User Actions Follow Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Euro has 4 snow events next 10 days DC to Boston.. the one on the weekend and Mon-Tue next week may have 6-12 locally 15.. each Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Don't spike yet. Still a ways to go here. (and when has JB met a threat he doesnt like) (Still havent forgotten his 2 feet from BDR to BOS last March) and why are subscribers having to go on twitter to hear his thoughts? Pro site has nothing...annoying to say the least. Spike . I was saying he`s nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Spike . I was saying he`s nuts what? You don't agree with him??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 what? You don't agree with him??? 6 to 12 max 15 for each ? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 6 to 12 max 15 for each ? No. he's a bit vague. For example. It's possibly PHL gets that for one, misses the 2nd storm and BOS gets that on the 2nd hit. The post could lead one to believe that a given location gets both and has the possibility of 30 inches on the ground. Could happen, but doubtful. Even in the 1st scenario, would be awesome to see locales from DCA to BOS getting nailed by one of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 he's a bit vague. For example. It's possibly PHL gets that for one, misses the 2nd storm and BOS gets that on the 2nd hit. The post could lead one to believe that a given location gets both and has the possibility of 30 inches on the ground. Could happen, but doubtful. Even in the 1st scenario, would be awesome to see locales from DCA to BOS getting nailed by one of the storms. 6 to 12 , 15 max is too aggressive for me . 1. The whole thing sits on the head of a pin and everything has to break right to stay all snow . .8 frozen right now , so 6 would be my max . Round 2 Could be the better one , but the whole trough axis will depend on a lot of things that I can`t see with this monster in it`s way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 6 to 12 , 15 max is too aggressive for me . 1. The whole thing sits on the head of a pin and everything has to break right to stay all snow . .8 frozen right now , so 6 would be my max . Round 2 Could be the better one , but the whole trough axis will depend on a lot of things that I can`t see with this monster in it`s way . You couldn't have said it any better. It all has to come together perfectly, much like most storms for the coast. What is good at this point is that we have multiple storm threats that aren't just 250+ hours out. The trend is that they've seem to become more disjointed as we get closer to the event, but this one could be the opposite. At any rate, people can't have too much to complain about. We have multiple storm chances, sufficient cold, and support by arguably the best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Cut JB's swing for the fences snowfall totals by 50% and you have the likely scenario. It's kind of like what you have to do for the NAM's QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Cut JB's swing for the fences snowfall totals by 50% and you have the likely scenario. It's kind of like what you have to do for the NAM's QPF output.rofl great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Bernie Rayno on twitter: 500 MB tells the story, this storm will not be a miss for the Mid Atlantic or SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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