baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model Thanks much. Bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I've been busy with a conference in Austin for most of the day and just got to looking at data on the drive back up to Dallas this evening. I'll probably end up heading up to Norman later today (Sunday). If the CMC is correct, along with other models showing a southern jog, I won't have to go far at all to get significant snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Euro is, for all intents and purposes, identical to the GFS at H+48. With the slight slowing trend, I imagine the event maximum will likely lie somewhere from the extreme NE Panhandles through NW OK, possibly extreme SC KS. Incredibly similar to the March 2009 event in many respects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Euro is, for all intents and purposes, identical to the GFS at H+48. With the slight slowing trend, I imagine the event maximum will likely lie somewhere from the extreme NE Panhandles through NW OK, possibly extreme SC KS. Incredibly similar to the March 2009 event in many respects. It took a slight jog to the south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I don't fully understand why OUN is mentioning blizzard conditions likely in the Winter Storm Watch yet they don't have a Blizzard Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It took a slight jog to the south as well. Yep . Better for almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'll take the Euro a bit farther south on ejection please. I noticed the 850 MB temps are slightly cooler than the GFS at the same time which makes a pretty big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I don't fully understand why OUN is mentioning blizzard conditions likely in the Winter Storm Watch yet they don't have a Blizzard Watch. They mentioned in an earlier AFD that for the sake of continuity they didn't want to make too many product changes: WS Watch to Blizzard Watch to Blizzard Warning. I agree with you though, call it like you see it/forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 They mentioned in an earlier AFD that for the sake of continuity they didn't want to make too many product changes: WS Watch to Blizzard Watch to Blizzard Warning. I agree with you though, call it like you see it/forecast it. Understood. Personally I don't agree with that, especially when they are talking blizzard conditions likely in more than one product (graphicast/the winter storm watch/afd, etc.), they should make sure the products are consistent, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCMet Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 They mentioned in an earlier AFD that for the sake of continuity they didn't want to make too many product changes: WS Watch to Blizzard Watch to Blizzard Warning. I agree with you though, call it like you see it/forecast it. Understood. Personally I don't agree with that, especially when they are talking blizzard conditions likely in more than one product (graphicast/the winter storm watch/afd, etc.), they should make sure the products are consistent, IMHO. Reminds me a bit of the Hurricane Sandy warning debacle, albeit on a much smaller scale. It actually surprises me that Blizzard Watches aren't up now from let's say Guthrie OK to Wichita and all of I-35 corridor to KC metro. The criteria should be widely met, especially since the official definition is "frequent gusts over 35mph". May as well give people the extra time to prepare. Tomorrow is Sunday, people have family obligations and aren't necessarily checking the weather. Snows will start before sunrise Monday morning in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Reminds me a bit of the Hurricane Sandy warning debacle, albeit on a much smaller scale. It actually surprises me that Blizzard Watches aren't up now from let's say Guthrie OK to Wichita and all of I-35 corridor to KC metro. The criteria should be widely met, especially since the official definition is "frequent gusts over 35mph". May as well give people the extra time to prepare. Tomorrow is Sunday, people have family obligations and aren't necessarily checking the weather. Snows will start before sunrise Monday morning in places. I don't know about comparisons between the two. Not to mention I don't believe that was a "debacle" like some folks in the media wanted to make it seem. People knew what was coming, and folks who bring that up and make it sound like an epic failure are completely missing the point. The fact thousands upon thousands of people did not die is a modern miracle, and it is a disservice to all those mets/EMs/public officials/etc. who made things work. That is a different discussion though. I do agree though about Blizzard vs. Winter Storm...people tend to respond much more readily to blizzard wording as opposed to the more generic winter storm wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Just on cue. Upgrade to Blizzard Warning across western OK. Blizzard WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK136 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ACROSSPARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...OKZ004>006-009>011-014>017-021>023-033>036-TXZ083-241545-/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0002.130225T0000Z-130226T1200Z//O.NEW.KOUN.BZ.W.0001.130225T0000Z-130226T1200Z/HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-HARDEMAN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS...QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE136 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CSTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CSTTUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA SUNDAY EVENING AND INTENSIFY AND PROGRESS EAST DURING MONDAY. THE SNOW WILL END WEST TO EAST EARLY TUESDAY.* OTHER IMPACTS: STRONG NORTHWEST WIND WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...DO NOT TRAVEL! STAY INSIDE! STRONG WINDS AND BLINDING SNOW WILLMAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM.&&$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 This thing should put on some grade A weather porn on satellite as it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCMet Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I do agree though about Blizzard vs. Winter Storm...people tend to respond much more readily to blizzard wording as opposed to the more generic winter storm wording. (Sorry for OT...) So, you think Blizz vs Winter Storm in the central plains is a bigger difference than Hurr vs "High Wind Warning" in NYC, an area that gets hurricane landfalls maybe 5 times per century? (I was one of those mets who "made things work" and can tell countless first hand stories of people who were on the fence about evacuating based on Mayor Bloomberg's comments that this "wouldn't be a hurricane-type surge". Again, sorry for OT, but I felt I had to defend myself. Back to the blizzard, I expect Blizzard warnings to include Wichita up to perhaps Topeka/KC, although wind guidance looks just short of meeting sustained 35mph criteria in Eastern Kansas. For Wichita to get possibly two top-three all-time snowfalls in less than a week will cause extensive impact. The all-time snowiest month (Feb 1913, ~20") occurred exactly 100 years ago this month. That mark could be broken by 5-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Interesting that OUN's WSW and Blizzard Warnings don't mention forecasted snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 (Sorry for OT...) So, you think Blizz vs Winter Storm in the central plains is a bigger difference than Hurr vs "High Wind Warning" in NYC, an area that gets hurricane landfalls maybe 5 times per century? (I was one of those mets who "made things work" and can tell countless first hand stories of people who were on the fence about evacuating based on Mayor Bloomberg's comments that this "wouldn't be a hurricane-type surge". Again, sorry for OT, but I felt I had to defend myself. Back to the blizzard, I expect Blizzard warnings to include Wichita up to perhaps Topeka/KC, although wind guidance looks just short of meeting sustained 35mph criteria in Eastern Kansas. For Wichita to get possibly two top-three all-time snowfalls in less than a week will cause extensive impact. The all-time snowiest month (Feb 1913, ~20") occurred exactly 100 years ago this month. That mark could be broken by 5-10". Bloomberg is a moron, and he clearly had other intentions than protecting the public. He clearly needs better advisors as the information the NWS was giving him was nothing short of apocalyptic. He dug his own grave with his decisions during Sandy. And where did I say that "Blizz vs Winter Storm in the central plains is a bigger difference than Hurr vs "High Wind Warning" in NYC"? I was stating that Norman is saying there will be blizzard conditions without a blizzard watch. You brought up the Sandy "debacle" on your own and tried to compare them, not I. And seriously, if people could not understand the the impacts of a historic surge, that is their own fault. Unfortunately, these days, there is a minority of people who simply don't like to listen to or heed advice, and it isn't our job to convince them otherwise by bending the rules or using more extreme wording simply to catch their attention. OT discussion over. if you want to continue it, use PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 looks like the 06z nam has come into agreement with other models in terms of location while affecting kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Holy smokes look at that gradient across W MO and SE KS! Not quite as extreme but still very steep across OK and TX. Don't envy those forecast offices the next 48 hours. OT - Nice to see EAX writing the discussion in standard upper and lower case font, instead of the traditional all caps. Except for people "shouting" who besides the NWS writes in all caps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 A very potent Winter Storm is wrapping up current over Arizona where 500mb temps are -35 degrees which is very cold and much stronger that the last upper low that ejected from the Desert SW that brought 2 ft of snow across locations in the Central Plains earlier this week. At this hour near Coastal Texas and Louisiana, a surface boundary is slowly retreating N as a warm from and dew point near 60+ will begin to move inland. It appears that the great threat for severe weather will be limited to areas E of the I-45 Corridor and especially across Louisiana. There remains some uncertainty as to just how far N the warm front will advance across SE Texas, but as Lee side cyclogenesis develops this afternoon across SE Colorado and NE New Mexico wind should respond and turn SE off the Gulf and increase. Streamer showers with isolated storms are possible tonight for Eastern Texas. Across Southern Louisiana into Mississippi, it is possible that severe weather chances will be greater with a stronger return of Gulf moisture and less capping allowing for development of rotating super cells and the possibility of tornadoes with heavy flooding rains across the Central an Eastern Gulf Coast States. Further W across the Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country, strong storms are possible as pressures fall very rapidly in advance of the approaching 500mb upper low and surface low. One limiting factor that precludes this event bringing wide spread damaging storms is the lack of moisture return, but this storm system will have much stronger dynamics than we have seen of late, so that will need to be monitored. In the cold sector, a Major Winter Storm with bring societal impact to a large portion of the Central/Southern Rockies into the Central/Southern Plains into the Mid West. Blizzard Warnings have been hoisted for a large area with Winter Storm conditions expected for more that 1000 miles across the mid section of the Continental US. The storm track will be a bit further S that previous storms have traveled. It is possible that the eventual track may need to be shift a bit further S. That will be determined later today into the overnight hours as the storm fully develops. That major headline other than the heavy snow and blizzard conditions expected across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle on N and E will be the strong gusty winds and very low dew point and humidity will bring extremely dry conditions that are worrisome for the rapid spread of wild fire and Red Flag Warning have been hoisted in advance of that dangerous conditions. SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD352 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 24 2013 - 12Z TUE FEB 26 2013 ...ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THECENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLEALONG SECTIONS OF GULF COAST... ...A COASTAL SYSTEM SHOULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE NEWENGLAND COAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SUNDAY... A PATTERN NEARLY REMINISCENT OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK WHICH FEATUREDHEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLEMISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL IMPACT A SIMILAR AREA DURING THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. THE CULPRIT IS A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLYTRAVERSING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM ADVANCESEASTWARD FROM WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE ARKLATEX ON MON...IT SHOULDFURTHER STRENGTHEN ALOFT AIDING IN FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE PARENTSURFACE LOW. THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BECONFINED TO THE ROCKIES WHERE VIGOROUS VERTICAL LIFT UNDER THEUPPER CYCLONE WILL PRODUCE POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL.EVENTUALLY THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND ASTHE SYSTEM FEEDS OFF ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.DURING THIS INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...LOCALIZED BANDING OF HEAVYSNOW WILL BECOME MORE COMMONPLACE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACECYCLONE. THE HPC WINTER WEATHER DESK IS ADVERTISING AN EXPANSIVESTRIPE OF 1 FOOT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLENORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WITHIN THISAREA...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...WILL BE A POCKETOF HEAVIER AMOUNTS APPROACHING 18 INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS WILLEASILY LEAD TO A HEFTY SNOW PACK GIVEN MUCH OF THE SNOW FROM THEPREVIOUS EVENT HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY MELTED. IN ADDITION TO THETHREAT FOR SNOW...A BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WHICHWILL FEATURE A POTENTIAL FOR ICING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLENORTHEASTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE OTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVEREWEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS. THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULDFOCUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SOMEOF THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LOCALLY SEVERE ON SUNDAY. AS THEUPPER LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD...A WARM FRONTWILL SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN FURTHERINCREASES IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT. THE RESULTANT HEAVY RAINFALLSHOULD COMMENCE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITHTHE PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.GIVEN THE UNSTABLE NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...STRONG TO SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY FROM EAST TEXAS ALL THEWAY TO COASTAL GEORGIA. FURTHER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASHFLOODING MAY OCCUR UNDERNEATH TRAINING/BACKBUILDING STORMS. LOOKING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION...A COASTAL SYSTEM TRACKINGNORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM LONG ISLAND SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH FROMNEW ENGLAND TO RESTRICT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO COASTALSECTIONS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONGTHE MAINE COAST. BACK TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...A DEEP UPPERTROUGH BARRELING TOWARD THE REGION WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVYPRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE FOLLOWINGDAY. SURFACE ONSHORE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL QUICKLYADVECT PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS SHOULDDOMINATE ALONG THE CASCADES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE BITTERROOTS.THE QUICK HITTING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW ASURFACE HIGH TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. RUBIN-OSTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion still suggesting the NAM is clueless... ...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINSTODAY......CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THEOHIO RIVER VALLEY...THE NAM INITIALIZED SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD IN THE VICINITY OFTHIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TOO HIGH BY 4 TO 8HPA...INDICATING POOR INITIALIZATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM BY THE NAM. THE NAM FORECAST TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW DOESNOT DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM CONSENSUS...HOWEVER THE NAM SEEMS TOCONTINUE TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSOAPPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSSTHE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS.SPREAD INCREASES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THEOHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOWFARTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The HPC Model Diagnostic Discussion still suggesting the NAM is clueless... ...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY... ...CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... THE NAM INITIALIZED SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TOO HIGH BY 4 TO 8 HPA...INDICATING POOR INITIALIZATION OF THIS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THE NAM. THE NAM FORECAST TRACK FOR THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM CONSENSUS...HOWEVER THE NAM SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO BE TOO WEAK WITH THE LOW THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NAM ALSO APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS. SPREAD INCREASES WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE NAM SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FARTHER NORTH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING RELATIVE TO CONSENSUS. Ah the NAM. Becoming more irrelevant by the day. Globals are getting pretty close to impinging on the NAM in horizontal res...they already destroy it in vertical resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Posted this in the Lakes/OV forum, but thought it may be more "entertaining" for those of you here. 12z RGEM goes ballistic on the KC area. 58mm=2.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 12Z GFS is a bit further S with the storm track suggesting Winter Storm Warnings may need to be extended into the Lubbock area. That model is suggesting the potential for heavier snow totals from the trowal developing further S across the Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Posted this in the Lakes/OV forum, but thought it may be more "entertaining" for those of you here. 12z RGEM goes ballistic on the KC area. 58mm=2.28" 2:24 12z RGEM 48 hours.gif That would be pretty wild. One thing is for sure. This storm will be pure weather pron, and there is going to be some epic thundersnow with this. The convective WCB feeding the deform band is going to be something to behold. WRF simulated WV eye-candy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 That would be pretty wild. One thing is for sure. This storm will be pure weather pron, and there is going to be some epic thundersnow with this. The convective WCB feeding the deform band is going to be something to behold. WRF simulated WV eye-candy: Should be a fun storm to watch. So happy for the plains folks...it's been awhile. And nice image. 12z GFS also hitting the KC area with 2.00"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Pretty neat surface map. Multiple areas of lee convergence as well as a baroclinic surface low in the OK Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 AM CST SUN FEB 24 2013 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL TX... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPR LOW AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOW AMPLIFYING SSEWD ACROSS ERN AZ SHOULD TURN MORE ESEWD AS IT CROSSES NM LATER TODAY/TNGT...WITH CONTINUED DEEPENING EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM REACHES W CNTRL TX AS EARLY MON. THIS WILL INDUCE STRENGTHENING OF EXISTING LEE CYCLONE OVER THE SRN HI PLNS TODAY...E AND SEWD INTO CNTRL TX EARLY MON. BROAD AREA OF ATTENDANT WAA EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/LWR MS VLY SHOULD SUPPORT EVENTUAL NWD MOVEMENT OF SFC FRONT NOW STALLED WSW-ENE ACROSS THE NRN GULF. NWD ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE STYMIED BY INCREASING COVERAGE OF RAIN/TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER IN THE PERIOD. ...SRN PLNS LT TNGT/EARLY MON... INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NM UPR TROUGH...NOW MOVING ESE ACROSS NRN/WRN NM...WILL SWEEP E INTO W TX THIS EVE AND OVERTAKE EXISTING LEE TROUGH. THE COMBINED BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS W TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE TNGT...WITH THE FEATURE EXTENDING FROM A LOW NEAR WICHITA FALLS SSE THROUGH CNTRL TX TO NEAR LAREDO BY 12Z MON. AT THE SAME TIME...WRN END OF BOUNDARY NOW STALLED IN THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER E CNTRL AND E TX TODAY/TNGT AS WAA STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR TROUGH. COMBINATION OF STRONG /90-120 M/ HEIGHT FALLS ON LEADING EDGE OF NM VORT WITH EXISTING PLUME OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT WDLY SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE FROM FAR WRN OK SWD THROUGH W TX...DESPITE SPARSE MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS 35-40 F/. STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STRONG COOLING ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SQLN A BIT LATER TNGT THROUGH EARLY MON AS THE ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT GREATER THOUGH STILL MODEST MOISTURE RETURN /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S/ SPREADING NWD THROUGH CNTRL/E CNTRL TX. WITH AMPLE /50+ KT/ DEEP SHEAR PRESENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUPERCELLS...SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE TIME OF DAY. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO PERHAPS WDLY SCTD STORMS WELL E AND SE OF THE SQLN /TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST/ VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS WRN EDGE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN IN THAT AREA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT SUCH POTENTIAL REMAINS QUITE CONDITIONAL GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND EML CAPPING. ...CNTRL GULF CST TNGT/EARLY MON... TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH ALONG AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TNGT/EARLY MON IN RESPONSE TO APPRECIABLE STRENGTHENING/BROADENING OF WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING NM/TX TROUGH. GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE S OF BOUNDARY PER CURRENT SFC AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA /PW AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F/...COVERAGE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO RETARD NWD/INLAND ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST REGION. NEITHER SATELLITE NOR MODEL FCSTS INDICATE PRESENCE OF ANY IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO FOCUS/ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...STRENGTH OF WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW COUPLED WITH 40+ KT WSWLY CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND FROM SRN LA EWD THROUGH SRN MS...SRN AL...THE FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA. ATTM IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. THIS FACTOR SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE/EXTENT OF SVR THREAT. IN ANY AREAS WHERE MARITIME BOUNDARY DOES MOVE ASHORE...HOWEVER...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR TORNADOES GIVEN 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 250-400 M2/S2 SRH...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE END OF FCST PERIOD. ..CORFIDI/LEITMAN.. 02/24/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 GFS suggesting that Fort Worth, Decatur, and Denton could see the edge of the winter action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 From The Weather Channel - Winter Storm Rocky Interesting that they have OKC, Tulsa, NW Ark, SW MO (Joplin/Springfield) in 3-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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