Edge Weather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hostly, though, having the NOGAPS doing what it is doing right now really causes you to stop and wonder what the heck is going on. Then you add the Canadian to that and it really makes you take pause. For goodness sake, usually the NOGAPS can't produce any storms at all, and if it does, it is the one way the heck out to sea. I don't know what to think other than that the potential is definitely still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 True but you can't disregard a winter just because your backyard does not get snow. It has been unlucky around here lately between last year and this year. NYC did okay'ish with Nemo but not enough to salvage this winter. Several other places such as Italy and Russia are getting historical snows. The potential is there....our bad luck cannot continue forever. There's no reason why it can't continue and continue for multiple winters for years. Look at pretty much all of the 80's. Look at the late 90's. Look at the 70's other than the end of the decade. Look it was nice to get a decent hit from Nemo and 2000-20011 were solid for most of the winters so I have no complaints. I understand other regions are racking it up but this is the NYC region we are posting about so my comments, while banter, are appropriate here. Mods, this is banter so feel free to move it there. Sorry about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hostly, though, having the NOGAPS doing what it is doing right now really causes you to stop and wonder what the heck is going on. Then you add the Canadian to that and it really makes you take pause. For goodness sake, usually the NOGAPS can't produce any storms at all, and if it does, it is the one way the heck out to sea. I don't know what to think other than that the potential is definitely still there.. The fact that the euro and gfs both agree that this is a total non event less than 4 days out is a bad thing, real bad. The chances of them both being dead wrong and a far less superior model like the nogaps having the handle on this is very slim, this is quickly turning into a lost cause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The difference is the GFS and Euro continue with the theme that the northern branch feature is the stronger of the 2 sws and once to the coast , it pulls the trough axis east . so when the Southern SW is in the slots its 200 miles east of HATT .( TOO LATE ) All year the Northern features have weakened as they have come east . I made this argument last week . every clipper that swung through the area was a shell of itself from what it was modeled 3- 4 days before . Last week the GFS didnt come around to the southern short wave being the strongest until 2 days before .Now they both may be doing it . The models without this bias are seeing development closer to the coast . So until you see which feature is stronger , nothing is off the table .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HM storm is there on the euro next week. Nice set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did you live in the area during the 1993-94 and the 1995-96 winters? Multiple wintry storms occurred multiple times in a week plenty: Happened in other years too: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/ Winter 1993-1994 Snow storm, December 29-30, 1993 Ice storm, January 3-4, 1994 Ice storm, January 7-8, 1994 Snow and ice storm, January 17-18, 1994 Snow storm, January 25-26, 1994 Snow and ice storm, February 8-9, 1994 Snow and ice storm, February 11, 1994 Snow and ice storm, February 23-24, 1994 Snow and ice storm, March 2-3, 1994 Snow storm, March 18, 1994 Winter 1995-1996 Snow storm, November 28-29, 1995 Snow storm, December 9, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 14, 1995 Snow storm, December 16, 1995 Snow and ice storm, December 18-20, 1995 Ice storm, January 2-3, 1996 Blizzard, January 7-8, 1996 Snow and ice storm, January 12, 1996 Snow storm, February 2-3, 1996 Snow storm, February 16-17, 1996 Snow storm, March 2, 1996 Snow and ice storm, March 7-8, 1996 Snow storm, April 9-10, 1996 I was lucky to get some footage of each event when I lived in Brooklyn...It still didn't beat the period from January 8th to Feb. 7th, 1978...There were six major storms in that period... date...precip...snowfall... 1/08-09...1.15".....1.0"... 1/13-14...1.37".....3.0" 1/17-18...1.93".....1.7" 1/19-20...1.50"...13.6" 1/25-26...2.25".......0 2/06-07...1.13"...17.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 True but you can't disregard a winter just because your backyard does not get snow. It has been unlucky around here lately between last year and this year. NYC did okay'ish with Nemo but not enough to salvage this winter. Several other places such as Italy and Russia are getting historical snows. The potential is there....our bad luck cannot continue forever. I'm personally over 20" now for the winter, not bad at all for this area. I'd say there's a notable chance I reach 30" if the pattern coming up can produce, and if this storm tomorrow night works out somehow. Dec-Jan were horrendous, but like we very often have, the bulk of the action comes over a few week or month period. Even 2010-11's action mostly happened over the course of 1 month. Early December and February were yawners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 When was the last time the NYC Metro Area had TWO blizzards or even major snowstorms within a week of each other? I'll take "never" for $500, Alex. 1926 and 1994 the first part of February...as far as 10" snowfalls in the same winter I did a post in the other thread about that... having two blizzards or major snowstorms in the same season is very rare...it's hard enough to get one...many of these winters had mucho events that grazed the area or wasn't a big storm...The winters with two major storms near 10" or more... 1895-96...both came in March... 1898-99...November and February... 1913-14...February and March... 1925-26...both came in February... 1933-34...December and February... 1959-60...December and March... 1960-61...December, January and February... 1966-67...February and March... 1977-78...January and February... 1995-96...January and February... 2003-04...December and January... 2009-10...December and two in February... 2010-11...December and January... the winters with a foot or more is even less... 1959-60...the December 59 storm had a small area of a foot or more...March was wide spread... 1960-61...December and February... 1977-78...January and February... 2010-11...December and January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HM storm is there on the euro next week. Nice set up HM storm is there on the euro next week. Nice set up now those two make a good combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HM storm is there on the euro next week. Nice set up HM storm is there on the euro next week. Nice set up wait, which storm are you taking about? Everything after h168 looks way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Bernie Reyno about this weekend's storm http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1377024971001?bckey=AQ~~,AAAAAGAhaJE~,HI8awA-NQcUeazpW4bxeoE4dfshwQCjX&bctid=655578741001 He thinks by Thursday the models should have a clue about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 What did euro ensembles and gfs ensembles show? Btw watch the video linked above, good info on storm and its uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 wait, which storm are you taking about? Everything after h168 looks way too warm End of run. 210. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wasnt the Blizzard of 96 modeled to go out to sea about 60 hours before the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wasnt the Blizzard of 96 modeled to go out to sea about 60 hours before the event? No the brunt of it was suppose to hit to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 No the brunt of it was suppose to hit to our south If I remember correctly, the ECMWF was the model that nailed the 96 blizzard 7 days out. It was either the 3rd or 4th day before the storm where the MRF lost it and the media said it would head out to sea. Just 36 hours before the event, the AVN and ETA models brought it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The models are much better now than they were 17 years ago, in 1996, the chances of both the gfs and euro missing a major storm run after run up to less than 4 days beforehand is really slim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's a monster trough....-10C 850s down to Florida/Georgia border and 0C down to Miami. Agricultural interests should take notice. Good call. OJ futures settled at 128.20 today. Settled price yesterday was 120.5, over 5% increase. Traders attributed the jump due to rise in cooler forecasted temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The models are much better now than they were 17 years ago, in 1996, the chances of both the gfs and euro missing a major storm run after run up to less than 4 days beforehand is really slim Not the boxing day storm - they both lost it a day in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did the storm show up on euro and gfs? Also what were the ensembles like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The 18z NAM's trough axis at 84 hr is MUCH better for weekend storm...I think dgex might show a storm close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Did the storm show up on euro and gfs? Also what were the ensembles like? the euro and gfs ensembles are a miss, they agree with the operational runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That day 9-10 storm is showing up on basically all the models, pretty big signal this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 If this storm is a miss/late phaser...it is probably one of the greatest wastes of H5 energy in as long as I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 storm at sea, did you see 18z NAM? Compare it to yesterday 18z GFS looks fairly similar. It was a big change for 12z NAM...I think it would spin up a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wasnt the Blizzard of 96 modeled to go out to sea about 60 hours before the event? Wasnt the Blizzard of 96 modeled to go out to sea about 60 hours before the event? Euro never missed one run. was a slam dunk from 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton's nws weather map as usual is the best for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 H5 looks like **** on the NAM. storm at sea, did you see 18z NAM? Compare it to yesterday 18z GFS looks fairly similar. It was a big change for 12z NAM...I think it would spin up a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Upton's nws weather map as usual is the best for this storm. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Don S in the medium range discussion says it doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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