leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Did it show ANY improvements or good signs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Still out to sea but looks a bit better than 12z.. But thats not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At this timeframe, I think it's safe to say the weekend threat is non-existent. We'll see, the trough is really messy but the storm is there atleast, just ots..Great lakes crap is really messing things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol euro looks absolutely delicious in the long range. That 22nd storm is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol euro looks absolutely delicious in the long range. That 22nd storm is real It looked real on gfs too! It would be night of 22nd into 23rd correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And what is ur link for euro mine isn't working lol euro looks absolutely delicious in the long range. That 22nd storm is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 lol euro looks absolutely delicious in the long range. That 22nd storm is real Very real. Much more real than the weekend threat. Classic overrunning/redeveloper into coastal pattern. We even have some sort of a block developing to the north, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Very real. Much more real than the weekend threat. Classic overrunning/redeveloper into coastal pattern. We even have some sort of a block developing to the north, too. Right now it looks like it yes, but storm is 10 days out. Also, with the shortwave being in North Pacific, and gfs showing slight improvemen tonite, I would hold off on calling weekend non threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Very real. Much more real than the weekend threat. Classic overrunning/redeveloper into coastal pattern. We even have some sort of a block developing to the north, too. Cutoff block in the prime spot over the davis straights. That'll get us out of this progressive pattern..HM has liked this date for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice. I wonder what the CIPS top analogs would be for the 22nd storm. Is there any hint of a triple phase or deep longwave trough look to it like this weekend's threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Very real. Much more real than the weekend threat. Classic overrunning/redeveloper into coastal pattern. We even have some sort of a block developing to the north, too. Just a couple days ago, we were saying this one could be a triple phaser. I'm not buying anything that far out. Does it show a big cutter like the gfs prior to that. As far as the cutter the gfs shows after this threat or no threat, that would be a completely different evolution if this storm (17-18) materialized. In fact it would probably be another storm for us as it would likely be forced further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just a couple days ago, we were saying this one could be a triple phaser. I'm not buying anything that far out. Does it show a big cutter like the gfs prior to that. It does show the big cutter, but that's what helps set the pattern up in the first place. The pattern for the weekend was much too progressive and there were so many pieces of energy involved...next week it's more simple/textbook in that we have a strong piece of energy crashing into the west coast with rising heights behind it, along with a huge 50/50 low/pesudo PV even from the departing cutter, ample STJ moisture, and a block in the Davis Straights. Of course, yes, it is 10 days out, but a general broad signal certainly does favor this time period. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This threat is over, let's look to the 22nd, the fat lady has sung with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 If HM nails this time frame(2/22) like he did the last (2/8), he should be a first ballot inductee to the Amwx hall of fame. To actually peg these time frames so far in advance is mind boggling. Simply amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The historic threat is always 10 days out on the models - they put them in there to keep you coming back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisjmcjr Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 OT, is there a thread for the storm on feb 22-24 ??? id so can some one link it i can't find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The 12z NAM wasn't that far off from producing something bigger Much sharper as compared to hr 84 at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Gfs has some snow for Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Gfs has some snow for Saturday Warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Cutter still looking great on the GFS. Will be nice to get some moderate to heavy rain in here and clear everything out. We also need this to setup the threat a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Cutter still looking great on the GFS. Will be nice to get some moderate to heavy rain in here and clear everything out. We also need this to setup the threat a few days later. This will not be a cutter with a 50/50 low,Negative NAO and strong high to the north. As we progress it will head for the coast or redevelop. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Gfs shows back to back cutters next week, 2/22 potential looks rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The GFS has lost the long range storm threats. It closed off a big storm off the Canadian west coast and then drove it southward into the open waters. Highly unlikely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 gfs is up to it's usual nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What did this new GGEM look like for this "threat"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There's a semblance of a 50/50 low for both events, especially the second one so I wouldn't be surprised if the gfs trended further SE with both. These threats next week should probably get their own thread soon. As far as this current one goes, maybe a few snow showers, it's going to be east unfortunately. With all of these threats out there, we could have scored on every one of them if we had some blocking in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Warm.You sure 850s plenty cold and surface runs 95Hr 72-78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You sure 850s plenty cold and surface runs 95 Hr 72-78 I think some posters see that that it's a tad warm for Long Island and then make blanket statements for the whole forum. Saturday is plenty cold for snow anywhere west of the city. And probaby east of that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hour 84 of the new updated ggem model. Lost the bomb idea and now matches the euro. Looks like we might have another great model to use: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hour 84 of the new updated ggem model. Lost the bomb idea and now matches the euro. Looks like we might have another great model to use: yeah stick a fork in this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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