Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Snow threats for the mountains.


Met1985

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 888
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Nice Don. Ya and this maybe pretty good for you this next week. We have not had a real good NW flow event in a few years. I remember a few years back when it snowed all weekend from the NW flow snow and we had about 9 inches were I lived at the time but near the boarder there were waist deep snow drifts.

 

 

In years past, my NW location has cashed in on NWFS, but it's been a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 06z GFS is coming in more amped with this weekend storm. Showing more moisture and possibly several inches of snow in the mountains in addition to what will start Wed night here. Also looks like some snow down near the Charlotte area. This looks like it has some great potential with it. Our upslope snow looks like it will be right on cue. GSP is hinting at several inches of snow and may snow for several days straight up here in the mountains.Thanks for the stuff earlier from GSP Don.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No problem 85, I would be pretty stoked about this up coming event if I was you. Multiple shots of reinforcement for the favored areas. A WWA is a given & a WSW is in the picture too. Would be nice to get some decent flow snow followed up by something from the south. Could be one of the best 10 day periods of the season. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No problem 85, I would be pretty stoked about this up coming event if I was you. Multiple shots of reinforcement for the favored areas. A WWA is a given & a WSW is in the picture too. Would be nice to get some decent flow snow followed up by something from the south. Could be one of the best 10 day periods of the season. 

Ya your right. We have not seen a period that is fixing to come up in about 2 years now. Oh I am pretty excited about what lies ahead. This system for this weekend keeps on peaking my interest. Take care Don and hope you get in on the snow action also along with the rest of our mountain friends.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That Saturday system has a southwest special look to it. Of course the usual suspects in NWFS will do well, but even the southern highlands look to pick up accumulations. Loving it. Very cold airmass will likely yield high snow ratios. pow pow is around the corner.

I hear ya...TN border areas are in for it...i teach here in Mitchell county and we have already exhausted our teacher workdays and annual leave days...thankfully we had school today on 3-hr delay...spring break is on the chop block now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are the short term and long term from GSP.....sorry about the long post.

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOWSPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS WILL CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT...WITH WRAP-AROUND/DEFORMATION ZONE MOISTURE PROGGED TO IMPACT THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGEFOR A PROLONGED NW FLOW SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE SETUP WILL NOTFAVOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT...THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE H8FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY THAN NW THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY...AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINSDURING THIS TIME...KEEPING THE FLOW BACKED OVER OUR AREA.  FORECASTTEMP PROFILES ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE FOR HEAVY ACCUMS...AS ITWILL TAKE A FEW HOURS FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO WORK DOWN TO THE VALLEYSWED EVENING...AND TEMPS IN THE MOIST LAYER REMAIN MARGINAL FORDENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. THEREFORE...ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONSWILL BE CARRIED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENN BORDER. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE PROFILESAND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORT HIGH POPS (LIKELY TOCATEGORICAL) ALONG THE TENN BORDER.IT MAY BE THAT THE BEST ACCUMS DURING THIS PROLONGED EVENT HOLD OFFUNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE FLOW FINALLY TAKES ON AN TRULYORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN LESS THANIDEAL...WHILE MUCH OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUPPORT FOR UVV WILL BEDIMINISHING. THEREFORE...I STILL DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A RISK FOR MORETHAN LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMS DURING THIS TIME...EXCEPT PERHAPS ON THEPEAKS AND HIGH RIDGES NEAR THE TENN BORDER. WE WILL CONTINUE TOADVERTISE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PROLONGED ADVISORY-LEVEL NW FLOW SNOWEVENT IN THE HWO.TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ITSHOULD ALSO BE SAID THAT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY AREEXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE CU EAST OF THE MTNS...ESP THE NCPIEDMONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRAY SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES CANNOTBE RULED OUT.&&.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 230 PM EST TUESDAY...LINGERING COLD AND MOIST NW FLOW INTO THENC MTNS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRI NIGHT.MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT AN H5 CLOSED LOW CENTERWILL LIKELY FORM OVER THE MID MS MIVER VALLEY FRI NIGHT. MODELDIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITH THE EWD EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURETHROUGH SAT. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF/CMCIN BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED VORT ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION LATE SAT.THE DEEPER GFS ALSO FEATURES A CLOSED 850 MB CIRCULATION CROSSINGTHE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS...POSSIBLYEVEN SNOW INTO PIEDMONT GIVEN THE CHILLY THICKNESSES. EVEN THE MOREOPEN CMC/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TEMPS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ATTIMES E OF THE MTNS SAT AFTN/SAT NIGHT. WILL FEATURE A BLEND OFSOLUTIONS...PUSHING POPS UP INTO THE CHC CATEGORY ACROSS THE PIEDMONTSAT/SAT NIGHT.TRAILING SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AS THECONSOLIDATED TROUGH AXIS MOVES EWD TO THE COAST. MOISTURE WILL BEMUCH MORE LIMITED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH LINGERING LOW LEVELUPSLOPE RH WRINGING OUT ADDITIONAL WRN MTN SNOW SHOWERS. BRIEFRIDGING IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON MON BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEMCLOSES OFF NEAR THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE. RETURN FLOW MOISTUREAHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUE. PROFILESCOULD BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX ON THE WARMADVECTION SIDE...AND PERHAPS SNOW AS THE SFC TO 850 MB REFLECTIONPASSES BY INTO TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNED.
Link to comment
Share on other sites


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

439 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-280945-

AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-

NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-

CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-

439 AM EST WED FEB 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH

CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER...LATE THIS

EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW

ACCUMULATION BY SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FROM

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS NEAR THE

TENNESSEE BORDER. SOME ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE

TENNESSEE BORDER OVER THE FOUR DAY PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS ONE OR

TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EACH DAY...AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR

BELOW FREEZING. SOME OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE

BORDER COULD EVENTUALLY RECEIVE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW BY THE TIME

THE SNOW SHOWERS WIND DOWN LATE SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE

SCATTERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE

BORDER...RESULTING IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT

AND SATURDAY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

so I know Beech always does well with NWSF, but does anyone know how Winterplace does? I'm trying to decide if I want to go skiing at Winterplace or Ski Beech on Saturday. I figured Beech will get more snow but Winterplace is larger which is nice.

 

Any thoughts guys?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SREF and RGEM showing tenn border/northern mtns approaching .25" qpf by 7am tomorrow...showing .1" or better qpf for northern Haywood, Swain, and Graham....maybe .25" in extreme NW Haywood and Swain....GSP predicting 20:1 ratio

What i love about this event(s), as we have many NWFS during the winter, is the high ratios. I mean, this is going to be some great pow pow and i certainly will make an attempt to get in some runs this weekend, earlier the better to avoid the crowds and speedsters trying to knock me over flying down the mountain, lol. Looks like we could see a region wide (SW NC) dusting to an inch or two overnight into Saturday and throughout the day on Saturday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What i love about this event(s), as we have many NWFS during the winter, is the high ratios. I mean, this is going to be some great pow pow and i certainly will make an attempt to get in some runs this weekend, earlier the better to avoid the crowds and speedsters trying to knock me over flying down the mountain, lol. Looks like we could see a region wide (SW NC) dusting to an inch or two overnight into Saturday and throughout the day on Saturday.

very snowy week starting tonight. This event should yield some decent snow for us usually left out in the nwfs events. I like the flow tonight being out of the west/southwest and good saturation at 700mb. Then tomorrow night a few pieces of upper level energy roll thru from due west and should continue to enhance light steady snow.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This seems kind of weak but here is the Northern Mtns advisory.

 

AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE319 PM EST WED FEB 27 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO7 PM EST THURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PMTHIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TENNESSEE  BORDER...GENERALLY NORTH OF MOUNT MITCHELL.* HAZARDS...SNOW...WHICH MAY COVER ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE  OFF AND ON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES.* IMPACTS...ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS MAY BECOME SLIPPERY...AND  VISIBILITY MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guys that is just for a 22 hour period. I am sure they will be continued & expanded.

 

WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP DEVELOPING FROM UPSLOPING IN THE MTNSNEAR THE TENN BORDER BY THIS EVENING. THE FIRST POCKET OF DPVAASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BORDER AROUND 00Z ANDTHIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE LLVL LIFT FROM THESLIGHTLY UPSLOPE WINDS. THE WINDS WILL VEER BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVEAS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES MORE OVERHEAD...AND THIS WILLLEAD THE UPSLOPING TO BECOME THE MAIN FORCING. MOISTURE REMAINSFAIRLY SHALLOW BUT PROFILES WILL BE SATURATED INTO THE SNOW GROWTHREGION. PRECIP WILL INITIALLY BE RAIN BUT WET BULBING WILL QUICKLYCOOL THE COLUMN AND ALLOW SNOW TO REACH THE SFC. HAVE GONE WITHMODEST 13 TO 1 RATIOS WHICH LEADS TO MAINLY A HALF INCH OR LESS PERSIX HOURS. A MID TO LATE NIGHT PEAK IN SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITHA SECOND VORT MAX PUSHING THROUGH AT THAT TIME WITH WINDS BECOMINGWNW THUS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE UPPER SUPPORTSEEN TOMORROW...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN NEARSATURATION...SO UPSLOPE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS WELL.USING QPF GUIDANCE BASED ON NAM WHICH IS NEAR SREF MEANS TOTALSNOWFALL TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH...BUT GIVENTHE FACT THAT THIS IS THE START OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPSLOPESNOWFALL WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR OUR NW MTNS...WHERETOTALS UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...