mitchnick Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yea CAPE I believe that map is skewed because of the quick warmup well have ahead of the inland runner. After that is anyones guess and Im leaning towards a good pattern forming. plus, if that is today's, the weekend maps are basically text output GFS, aren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 It wasn't too impressive. And besides, i was shopping for new golf clubs this afternoon. I'm shocked that you are so selfish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yea CAPE I believe that map is skewed because of the quick warmup well have ahead of the inland runner. After that is anyones guess and Im leaning towards a good pattern forming. Yes I agree, and I also tend to think the second half of the month will be generally cold with storm chances. Still not sure how he interprets those outlooks as a well above normal period lasting a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 BUMP!!! Oh, Monday night/Tuesday morning looks interesting on the NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 BUMP!!! Oh, Monday night/Tuesday morning looks interesting on the NAM/GFS. Yeah models are getting a little more bullish. Will draw in a little more moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 hello 126 EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 hello 126 EURO! rainstorm before this frame. Just surprised to see this amp'd of a solution within 144hrs. COngrats poconos/Upstate NY this run. GFS is nowhere near this amp'd up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 rainstorm before this frame. Just surprised to see this amp'd of a solution within 144hrs. COngrats poconos/Upstate NY this run. GFS is nowhere near this amp'd up. We have seen this sort of thing before from the Euro op this winter for a run or two. Not buying it,,,has no support from other guidance and the Euro ensembles are much weaker with this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 0z Euro ensemble mean looks similiar to the op for the storm http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We have seen this sort of thing before from the Euro op this winter for a run or two. Not buying it,,,has no support from other guidance and the Euro ensembles are much weaker with this low. No support? You may want to go back and read some of the ideas HM had floating around for this timeframe. Models will continue to struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 No support? You may want to go back and read some of the ideas HM had floating around for this timeframe. Models will continue to struggle. Other model guidance does not support a low bombing off the MA coast as the 0z Euro op has depicted. GFS and its ensembles as well as the Euro ensemble have a storm, but weaker and placement varies. The Euro has had a tendency recently for a run or two showing a wound up system only to completely back off. That does not mean we wont see a storm late next week or weekend. This is also the time frame where the PV is forecast to retreat some and temps will be moderating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Models pretty stable with monday night event. Another inch or two between Trenton+Dover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The Friday event on the Euro looks like an all rain event at 12Z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The Friday system is all rain on the 12z EC. Looked a little odd with WAA on the backside of the storm. Not buying into this storm yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 so what's the latest on the next several events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well, best guess is another coating to an inch or two Monday night... at least at TTN. The way things are going, it'll probably be the coating instead of the inch or two, but who knows. The potential for an inch or a bit more is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well, best guess is another coating to an inch or two Monday night... at least at TTN. The way things are going, it'll probably be the coating instead of the inch or two, but who knows. The potential for an inch or a bit more is there. thanks ray..and beyond that this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 thanks ray..and beyond that this week? There's a lot of uncertainty late in the week about what will happen with the next system. I don't want to make any definitive call yet. It might snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 There's a lot of uncertainty late in the week about what will happen with the next system. I don't want to make any definitive call yet. It might snow. thanks again....off to bed with that thought in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 There is also the Tuesday night system... that looks weaker than tomorrow night but could get a coating to an inch out of that too. As a friend of mine said, "winter of half inch snowfalls continues" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm just There is also the Tuesday night system... that looks weaker than tomorrow night but could get a coating to an inch out of that too. As a friend of mine said, "winter of half inch snowfalls continues" I'm just gonna assume the NAM is on crack with its .15 to .2 QPF for tomorrow night. As this winter goes, a half inch to an inch seems reasonable with a lolly or two of 1.5". What ever does fall, MBY is just .2" from a 20" season. Seems like a lot but feels pathetic as 70% of that came from the freakish Nov storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm just I'm just gonna assume the NAM is on crack with its .15 to .2 QPF for tomorrow night. As this winter goes, a half inch to an inch seems reasonable with a lolly or two of 1.5". What ever does fall, MBY is just .2" from a 20" season. Seems like a lot but feels pathetic as 70% of that came from the freakish Nov storm. My parents are up to a whopping 8.4" for the winter. 3.8" fell in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 euro isnt backing down... im shocked. coastal areas are torched, but poconos N&W have a chance this run. (you can bank on this happening, i go up the poconos this weekend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The bigger picture is that the euro and GFS couldn't be any more different. The euro is faster with the southern shortwave, hence the phase, and the GFS keeps it lagging behind. WHo shall win...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The weenies would rather the GFS be right. An inch of snow > 37 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The weenies would rather the GFS be right. An inch of snow > 37 and rain. There's probably a scenario where it interacts just enough to be a big snowstorm. I haven't seen it on the modeling yet, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 There's probably a scenario where it interacts just enough to be a big snowstorm. I haven't seen it on the modeling yet, though. Yeah, it's in the realm of possibility but it probably needs a bit more dig on the northern wave to nudge the southern wave out a bit to the east, all while phasing everything together juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuusssssssssssssssttttttttttt right...ultimate thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 man what a difference between gfs / euro for friday. who will cave 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The weenies would rather the GFS be right. An inch of snow > 37 and rain. Weenies, psshhh we have non of them on these boards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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