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February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

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Yea CAPE I believe that map is skewed because of the quick warmup well have ahead of the inland runner. After that is anyones guess and Im leaning towards a good pattern forming.

Yes I agree, and I also tend to think the second half of the month will be generally cold with storm chances. Still not sure how he interprets those outlooks as a well above normal period lasting a few weeks.

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zebanuzy.jpg

rainstorm before this frame. Just surprised to see this amp'd of a solution within 144hrs. COngrats poconos/Upstate NY this run. GFS is nowhere near this amp'd up.

We have seen this sort of thing before from the Euro op this winter for a run or two. Not buying it,,,has no support from other guidance and the Euro ensembles are much weaker with this low.

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We have seen this sort of thing before from the Euro op this winter for a run or two. Not buying it,,,has no support from other guidance and the Euro ensembles are much weaker with this low.

No support? You may want to go back and read some of the ideas HM had floating around for this timeframe. Models will continue to struggle.

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No support? You may want to go back and read some of the ideas HM had floating around for this timeframe. Models will continue to struggle.

Other model guidance does not support a low bombing off the MA coast as the 0z Euro op has depicted. GFS and its ensembles as well as the Euro ensemble have a storm, but weaker and placement varies. The Euro has had a tendency recently for a run or two showing a wound up system only to completely back off. That does not mean we wont see a storm late next week or weekend. This is also the time frame where the PV is forecast to retreat some and temps will be moderating.

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I'm just

There is also the Tuesday night system... that looks weaker than tomorrow night but could get a coating to an inch out of that too.  As a friend of mine said, "winter of half inch snowfalls continues"

I'm just gonna assume the NAM is on crack with its .15 to .2 QPF for tomorrow night. As this winter goes, a half inch to an inch seems reasonable with a lolly or two of 1.5". What ever does fall, MBY is just .2" from a 20" season. Seems like a lot but feels pathetic as 70% of that came from the freakish Nov storm.

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I'm just

I'm just gonna assume the NAM is on crack with its .15 to .2 QPF for tomorrow night. As this winter goes, a half inch to an inch seems reasonable with a lolly or two of 1.5". What ever does fall, MBY is just .2" from a 20" season. Seems like a lot but feels pathetic as 70% of that came from the freakish Nov storm.

 

My parents are up to a whopping 8.4" for the winter.  3.8" fell in November.

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There's probably a scenario where it interacts just enough to be a big snowstorm.  I haven't seen it on the modeling yet, though.

 

Yeah, it's in the realm of possibility but it probably needs a bit more dig on the northern wave to nudge the southern wave out a bit to the east, all while phasing everything together juuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuusssssssssssssssttttttttttt right...ultimate thread the needle. :lol:

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