High Wind Warning Into Early Thursday

[bluewave]

A very strong southerly flow will develop ahead of the cold front here on Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures

will surge to 12c+ during the day. The main limiting factors on the top temperature potential will be

cloud cover and enough of an onshore component along coastal sections. But temperatures could

still rise to around 60 or a bit higher especially over New Jersey. 

 

We'll also have to monitor later model runs for the details on the strong wind potential.

 

 

 

[Weathergun]

The 12z GFS has 55kt winds below the inversion around 900mb, 7pm Wed, in NYC:

 

 

 

 

 

[TWCCraig]

12z GFS has 101mph winds at 925mb over KISP at 03z Thurs. Surface sustained winds at 40mph. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KISP

 

[TWCCraig]

WE REMAIN WARM SECTORED ON WED WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS

UNDER A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY

OF SUNSHINE THOUGH WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. 75-85KT LLJ

DEVELOPS IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE AROUND H9. THIS WILL RESULT IN

A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF

THESE HIGHER WINDS TO MIX DOWN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE

IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WE HAVE SEEN AT LEAST WIND ADVSY

CRITERIA BE MET WITH WINDS ALOFT OF THIS MAGNITUDE. THE POTENTIAL

FOR DAMAGING WINDS ALSO EXISTS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A

RUMBLE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE STRONG VV...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO

INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. WAY TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF

HEADLINES FOR THE WINDS AND IT MAY COULD PERHAPS BE HANDLED WITH

SHORT FUSE WARNINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS IN HWO.

 

That second to last sentence may mean (if I'm interpreting it right) we could have some special statements or even severe thunderstorm warnings for bands that could mix down some strong winds. I think the potential is there for some isolated wind gusts as high as 70mph or even more. Winds are pretty strong even below the inversion. The GFS is stronger in the LLJ than per say NAM, we'll see.

[pazzo83]

Already pushing the upper 40s in midtown, sun is coming out.  Feels awesome out.

[Stormlover74]

Already pushing the upper 40s in midtown, sun is coming out.  Feels awesome out.

Yeah my predicted high is 48 and I've already hit that. Think we'll see 50s

[earthlight]

The NAM has an area of 60 F temperatures just south of the warm front/clearing tomorrow afternoon.

 

[earthlight]

Edit..the high resolution NAM actually has the 60's well into Northern NJ

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/temp33.gif

[Nikolai]

Beautiful out! So glad winter is over. Not that it ever began. Time for spring (and the 00z EURO corroborates going into the LR... awful awful pattern). 

[pazzo83]

Crazy stuff, the sun is out and it's in the low 50s in midtown, while it's 38F at LGA.

[rickwx1006]

Time/temperature sign in front of my building on 6th avenue already shows 50 degrees.  Looks like we could reach 55.  Beautiful day to go for a walk in Central Park at lunchtime.

[ict1523]

Not often is LGA the coldest station in the area. 

[Weathergun]

The 12z NAM and GFS today, have 925mb winds 80kts> over the coastal sections tomorrow night. But they both have now stronger inversions at 950mb, to prevent most of those winds from mixing down to the surface. If the inversion holds, I don't think we are likely too see too many wind gusts over 55mph, outside of thunderstorms.

 

The 12z GFS does have 50kt> winds at 975mb over LI and NJ shore tomorrow. It might be enough for a HWW.

[SnoSki14]

Beautiful out! So glad winter is over. Not that it ever began. Time for spring (and the 00z EURO corroborates going into the LR... awful awful pattern). 

 

Good, that's one less complainer. 

[Nikolai]

Good, that's one less complainer. 

I haven't complained at all... what's the point? Hilarious reading the threads over the past month where people bemoan .5" differences in accumulations lol

[SnoSki14]

I haven't complained at all... what's the point? Hilarious reading the threads over the past month where people bemoan .5" differences in accumulations lol

 

While I agree that this is far from even a fair winter so far, I'm not throwing in the towel when there's a lot of potential in the next week. It's not over yet like some people think, but if it is then that's how things go. It's not like we've never had back to back bad winters in the past. 

[uncle W]

after a week of wasted cold this thaw feels good...If it gets cold again without snow it might as well be 70 degrees and Sunny...That could happen the second half of February like the 1985 analog did...

[IsentropicLift]

Glad to see a lot of posters are waking up and realizing that cold doesn't gurantee snow. The earlier theory that bringing in the cold would eventually deliver the goods has been proven wrong. It couldn't have been much colder for as long of a stretch as it had been this past week or so and yet there have been BL issues with every threat and this couple of days in the 50s and 60s will thaw out much of the area. The sun feels warm and is a nice reminder that Spring is just around the corner.

[Kaner587]

Glad to see a lot of posters are waking up and realizing that cold doesn't gurantee snow. The earlier theory that bringing in the cold would eventually deliver the goods has been proven wrong. It couldn't have been much colder for as long of a stretch as it had been this past week or so and yet there have been BL issues with every threat and this couple of days in the 50s and 60s will thaw out much of the area. The sun feels warm and is a nice reminder that Spring is just around the corner.

In all fairness, people weren't saying in the 1 wk cold period there would be guaranteed snow (which there was btw, even if it wasn't much). I think there was an understanding that the "cold period" would be a 2-3 week timeframe, with some warm days mixed in where we get reloaded, as is occurring this wk. If sunday and the 2/5 threat crap out then you're 100% right, bc then it looks like we go into a relaxation period for about a week to 10 days, where it is no guarantee winter returns (although i suspect at least the cold does)

[SnoSki14]

Glad to see a lot of posters are waking up and realizing that cold doesn't gurantee snow. The earlier theory that bringing in the cold would eventually deliver the goods has been proven wrong. It couldn't have been much colder for as long of a stretch as it had been this past week or so and yet there have been BL issues with every threat and this couple of days in the 50s and 60s will thaw out much of the area. The sun feels warm and is a nice reminder that Spring is just around the corner.

 

I agree about the cold equals snow argument but there's always a chance that with cold, you'll get snow and we saw that even if it was a minor event. You're not going to get any snow chance with temperatures in the 50s and 60s, but you may with temps in the 20s and 30s. 

 

It's January 29, how is Spring right around the corner? Maybe for a couple of days but we're back into full winter mode entering February with several small and possibly larger threats. That's like saying on July 29 that fall is just a step away. 

[Kaner587]

I agree about the cold equals snow argument but there's always a chance that with cold, you'll get snow and we saw that even if it was a minor event. You're not going to get any snow chance with temperatures in the 50s and 60s, but you may with temps in the 20s and 30s. 

 

It's January 29, how is Spring right around the corner? Maybe for a couple of days but we're back into full winter mode entering February with several small and possibly larger threats. That's like saying on July 29 that fall is just a step away. 

lol...anyway I agree with what you're saying. And we're so used to having warm snowless marches these days, I wouldn't be so sure this is the outcome this year. I bet we actually average above normal, but not before a solid cold/potentially snowy period in the first half of march. If you guys read qvectormans posts in the main forum he describes the progression of the pattern going forward well.

[bluewave]

Areas away from marine influence really show what an anomalous airmass this is for January.

This would be the equivalent of NYC beating their 72 degree high for January with a temperature

of 75 degrees.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS1241 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET FOR MONDAY...JANUARY 28TH...AND FORTHE MONTH OF JANUARY AT TOPEKA KS...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS SET AT BILLARD AIRPORTIN TOPEKA KS MONDAY...JANUARY 28TH AT 331 PM. THIS SETS THE RECORDFOR THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE BOTH FOR THIS DAY AND FOR THE MONTH OFJANUARY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MONDAY...JANUARY 28TH WAS 67DEGREES...SET IN 1917. THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARYWAS 74 DEGREES...FIRST SET ON JANUARY 2...1939 AND THEN TIED ONJANUARY 8...2003.

1-28-13  77  48  63  33 

[Nikolai]

I agree about the cold equals snow argument but there's always a chance that with cold, you'll get snow and we saw that even if it was a minor event. You're not going to get any snow chance with temperatures in the 50s and 60s, but you may with temps in the 20s and 30s. 

 

It's January 29, how is Spring right around the corner? Maybe for a couple of days but we're back into full winter mode entering February with several small and possibly larger threats. That's like saying on July 29 that fall is just a step away. 

Spring is right around the corner. The D10 EURO is horrible for any snow threats and doesn't look good for cold, either--that takes us out to roughly 2/15. By 2/15, sun angle begins to become an issue and with the problems we've already been having... really, there's no point. 

[Absolute Humidity]

Glad to see a lot of posters are waking up and realizing that cold doesn't gurantee snow. The earlier theory that bringing in the cold would eventually deliver the goods has been proven wrong. It couldn't have been much colder for as long of a stretch as it had been this past week or so and yet there have been BL issues with every threat and this couple of days in the 50s and 60s will thaw out much of the area. The sun feels warm and is a nice reminder that Spring is just around the corner.

Who says it didn't deliver the goods. I for one received 3.8" snow during that week. It was the second best winter weather week since 2011 IMBY.

[Kaner587]

Spring is right around the corner. The D10 EURO is horrible for any snow threats and doesn't look good for cold, either--that takes us out to roughly 2/15. By 2/15, sun angle begins to become an issue and with the problems we've already been having... really, there's no point. 

honestly though, the problems we've had, should they continue will overwhelm any other variable. I doubt sun angle is what's going to be the last straw. If anything, the biggest influence it would be in the marginal events, and nickle and dime time stuff, which at the coast we're like 1/10 so far in these events, with just 1.9in overall at CPK. If we have a chance this to get close to normal in snow it will take some well timed events with renewal of cold air. As I said before there are no indication just yet that winter is over after 2/15 as it was the last 2 yrs. If the warm period we go through extends past 10 days we may have to revisit this. As of now, it looks like we'll at least return to a normal temp pattern for the last 10 days of feb into early march. At least if we use the way the pattern has progressed since mid Dec.

[easternsnowman]

 

honestly though, the problems we've had, should they continue will overwhelm any other variable. I doubt sun angle is what's going to be the last straw. If anything, the biggest influence it would be in the marginal events, and nickle and dime time stuff, which at the coast we're like 1/10 so far in these events, with just 1.9in overall at CPK. If we have a chance this to get close to normal in snow it will take some well timed events with renewal of cold air. As I said before there are no indication just yet that winter is over after 2/15 as it was the last 2 yrs. If the warm period we go through extends past 10 days we may have to revisit this. As of now, it looks like we'll at least return to a normal temp pattern for the last 10 days of feb into early march. At least if we use the way the pattern has progressed since mid Dec.

 That's the way I see it and any good met will too.

[earthlight]

 

SPC expecting isolated severe potential to extend as far north as Central NJ. Makes sense given the warm frontal positioning between near 18z tomorrow on most models.

[Dsnowx53]

I really enjoyed last week's cold temperatures and light snowfalls. Even in a cold and dry pattern, you can often get some nice snow to whiten the landscape. 

[NYStorm]

The 12z NAM and GFS today, have 925mb winds 80kts> over the coastal sections tomorrow night. But they both have now stronger inversions at 950mb, to prevent most of those winds from mixing down to the surface. If the inversion holds, I don't think we are likely too see too many wind gusts over 55mph, outside of thunderstorms.

 

The 12z GFS does have 50kt> winds at 975mb over LI and NJ shore tomorrow. It might be enough for a HWW.

 

Hate to do this, as I'm normally only a reader and observer here, but can anyone post what the timing on this is expected to be? I have a flight out of HPN at 4PM EST.

[tombo82685]

Hate to do this, as I'm normally only a reader and observer here, but can anyone post what the timing on this is expected to be? I have a flight out of HPN at 4PM EST.

Per gfs and nam it should be after 7pm