Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

18-20th Storm potential/ Discussion


stormspotterlive

Recommended Posts

From JB at Weatherbell

"A 3 part storm next week. Part one is the storm running to the lakes and then starting to secondary, with a shot of energy coming into the secondary for a re-enhancement of the snow. Consequently the period Sunday noon till sundown Tuesday. In fact it should be snowing in Foxboro Sunday night which would mean the second Sunday night HD snow game in a row, something I have never seen before I have this as Monday-Tuesday, but the first snows should start Sunday afternoon back away then come back Monday into Tuesday. The next part is Wed Thursday and I like my idea of storm to Ohio, then secondary on the Carolina coast and bombing out ne to Nantucket Wed. The snow should be more sw/ne with heavy interior amounts and a change to snow at the end at the coast . In fact, a bullseye for both storms may be the Catskills, which by late next week may have seen 1-2 feet of snow. The system the middle of next week should be a very strong one. I think the GFS is playing its games again with the front runner. The euro operational has had some problems but what is remarkable is the ensemble consistancy of this model. Look at the day 10 from Sunday This sends the negative right through the magic mid atlantic area for the northeast interior snowstorm. There should be a backlash also so the coastal areas and big cities down to BWI change to snow. But this is far more consistent than the GFS and So I like what I put out as far as the track goes. While I think the heavy snows are above 1 thousand feet here ( upward motion will take over and some cold air damming will develop between the two systems into the va piedmont, allowing for the changeover once the air gets lifted furher north) I have been biased too far to the northwest with first calls with Sandy Sequel and the late November storm, But run the low to southern Ohio then explode the secondary on the coast in December and a hefty snowstorm is the result In this case its the start of a cold pattern and i believe the ECMWF as far as bringing the cold quicker.. Notice the day 10 That is going to dump a world of cold into the east. The march of the cold is much stronger on the ECMWF into the southeast than the US ensemble and in agreement more with the GFS operational and Euro operational - ECMWF ensemble 850 day 6-10 deviation from normal If I am right about the snow, that will easily extend south into the central Appalachians. The current GFS snow idea will correct south I believe with time, with heavy amounts into the mtns all the way into wva and most of pa and north Jersey in the over 4 inch range when this is over...and of course heavier as mentioned above to the west, nw, n and ne"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 254
  • Created
  • Last Reply

From JB at Weatherbell

the snow, that will easily extend south into the central Appalachians. The current GFS snow idea will correct south I believe with time, with heavy amounts into the mtns all the way into wva and most of pa and north Jersey in the over 4 inch range when this is over...and of course heavier as mentioned above to the west, nw, n and ne"

Getting the not so confident feeling when the I-95 spinmaster JB throws out the caveat that the "most of PA" affected will likely be west, nw,n, and ne of here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Considering that we are in the southeast corner....all of PA is north and west of us...should be a couple interesting weeks as we move toward Christmas!

Getting the not so confident feeling when the I-95 spinmaster JB throws out the caveat that the "most of PA" affected will likely be west, nw,n, and ne of here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

per the gfs pretty much all of the northeast sees some rain...Will be interesting to see the rest of the models.

yeah, that 1st wave really torches the boundary.

doesnt help the 2nd wave drives the low up to the central NC/VA border up through the delmarva then NNE from there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Per H5 on the GFS I would suspect the low should be about 50 miles east of what it shows. Also the low is pretty well separated from the qpf/ moisture down south unlike the euro. Even at that if it did shift east it would be rain with winter mix north and west.

u could get a 150 mile shift east, with that airmass its gonna be mainly rain.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And if it does....no worries as there are plenty of runs with many more shifts to come....welcome to models during pattern swings.

Ehh, not liking the -PNA here... No time for the over to dig and get off the coast, so by the time it starts feelin the block, it amplifies inland. Just my .02c right now.sadly, I won't be up for the 0z euro, in the middle if a 40hr shift, trying to get some sleep.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom is a realist...to many people look at the 850s and get all gooed up over it when its south of them when the BL is torched....just ask ray martin, i had to teach him all about the BL stuff..

see you used the adams T word, ;)

i like to view the 2m maps on gfs run to help my gooed up eyes :).

yeah i know more to it then that ;)

thanks Tom for all you do here :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...