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18-20th Storm potential/ Discussion

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Well I figured it is time to start a thread for next weeks potential since it features a wide range of issues anywhere from coastal flooding issues (Thanks to no or limited dunes) and even heavy rain wind and yes even snow for some. Both the 00z euro and 00z GFS raise red flags for the potential of a Major miller B like Nor'easter. Now we shall see where we end up over the next few days with the increasingly interesting threat for this range and the blocking signal that is helping to aid this.

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Euro is rain for I-95...might as well get that out there now. ;)

to start yes...but once that storm pulls away and we get into what looks to be the ccb that could change over to snow...hr 180 looks like far north and west like ptw-ukt could be something other than rain. Thicknesses around 540 temps in 30s.

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Just looking over the data now. I think that first system for late this weekend early next week is the big key to places getting snow. Need that system to be stronger and not strung out. Need that to pull down the boundry and get some cold air in here before hand. This will also acts as the 50/50 low. You compare yesterdays 12z run to todays 6z run and the storm before this one is a lot stronger which reinforces the block and creates a nice 50/50 which pushes the whole confluence further south.

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These are the images i think would be snow, first one would prob be paul's locale-ptw-ukt north and west

ecmwf-mslp-qpf6hr-ne_hr180.png?1355294352

then once the storm wraps up we get into the ccb

ecmwf-mslp-qpf6hr-ne_hr186.png?1355294412

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the 8-14 day analog map continues to hammer around the boxing day storm

814analog.off.gif

6-10 day analog has the boxing day storm and the dec storm of 92 thrown in

610analog.off.gif

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congrats tombo, quakertown, chesco, and me?

to start yes...but once that storm pulls away and we get into what looks to be the ccb that could change over to snow...hr 180 looks like far north and west like ptw-ukt could be something other than rain. Thicknesses around 540 temps in 30s.

The brunt of that CCB is north/west...deform band across those areas while Philly gets grazed by it. I could see a changeover back to snow in Philly at the end but given the banding is more nw it's not going to accumulate much verbatim.

Wunderground's weenie maps have snow only in the Poconos through 174...not sure what happens after that.

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congrats tombo, quakertown, chesco, and me?

I'm not positive if that's snow...but looking at the thicknesses i would assume they start as rain then swtich over...then maybe phl if that ccb sets up.

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Seems to me like we really need the weekend system to wind up more and cut further to get the colder air closer to us for the 2nd storm. That of course probably won't happen. I am encouraged by some of the mets in the SNE forum saying that the GFS and Euro have been trending colder overall with the 2nd system which hopefully helps things. The PHL area never seems to work out in borderline thermal events but I hope it sets the stage a bit for some more cold heading into X-mas. There is a 3rd system out there around that timeframe that gets completely shunted out to sea.....hopefully we can get that one to slide up our way with better temps around.

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The ECM ensemble looks exactly like the 186hr timr frame tombo posted above, but a little colder.

If we had a nice high pressure that would be a snow storm for i95 corridor...but since we have a meh airmass, snow favors places away from the cities

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tom as you said, it seems we need that 1st storm to bring down the cold to setup/help #2

it will be a fun (stressful?) next few days watching the runs.

think snow!

...and the Euro is a much stronger solution compared to the GFS (and delayed by almost a day) with storm 1. Euro slow/delayed/phased bias at work?

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Looks like a potential work out for the new Mt Holly Zones....any bets on if the GFS goes to a supressed solution either 2 or 3 days before the event? (I mean the 2nd storm)

My personal opinion is its to strung out with the system this weekend. With that being stronger look for a better defined 50/50. In the end i think you will see one storm cut to ky/lower ohio with another develop on va capes/delmarva.

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...and the Euro is a much stronger solution compared to the GFS (and delayed by almost a day) with storm 1. Euro slow/delayed/phased bias at work?

Could be. But not sure this shortwave comes

Though the southwest in the known biased area. Something to keep an eye on.

@tombo... You get a bombing LP off the coast this time of year, you'll get the cities to get frozen Qpf, assuming the LP stays offshore. We saw this late October-early November. Dynamics dynamics, dynamics... But that all comes down to timing, strength and how the shirt waves evolve.

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Could be. But not sure this shortwave comes

Though the southwest in the known biased area. Something to keep an eye on.

@tombo... You get a bombing LP off the coast this time of year, you'll get the cities to get frozen Qpf, assuming the LP stays offshore. We saw this late October-early November. Dynamics dynamics, dynamics... But that all comes down to timing, strength and how the shirt waves evolve.

thats what im saying if we had a good high in place it would be snow start to finish...but with the meh cold you would have to wait for the dynamics to occur for the changeover to occur

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thats what im saying if we had a good high in place it would be snow start to finish...but with the meh cold you would have to wait for the dynamics to occur for the changeover to occur

I can't even remember* the last storm to have a good high in place....

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I can't even Rembrandt the last storm to have a good high in place....

which is why tge cities havent had big snow since jan 2011...regardless of track if you dont have cold air around its not gonna do it despite a great track.

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Third run in a row gfs with this warm run markedly different than euro. Difference is euro zips a stronger first wave out into 50/50 position while the gfs has a strung out pos with the primary wondering aimlessly north into the block. Something tells me go with the euro

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I can't even Rembrandt the last storm to have a good high in place....

Maybe if you Van Gogh to Ray's archive you could find out for sure...

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The issue here is the GFS with the 1st wave. Keeps it weaker, flatter, and closes off under the west based NAO north of NY. That slows the extent of the cooler Canadian air mass into the baroclinic zone. The euro and gfs tracks aren't too far off, but if you look at the h5 progression, you'll see the difference why the euro is cooler.

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The issue here is the GFS with the 1st wave. Keeps it weaker, flatter, and closes off under the west based NAO north of NY. That slows the extent of the cooler Canadian air mass into the baroclinic zone. The euro and gfs tracks aren't too far off, but if you look at the h5 progression, you'll see the difference why the euro is cooler.

yes i find it hard to believe the euro is clueless at this range and want to toss the gfs, on to da ensembles

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Not sure here, but I'm pretty sure the GFS handles the Northern Stream pretty well if I'm not mistaken? If so, the gfs solution has legs.

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Maybe if you Van Gogh to Ray's archive you could find out for sure...

Yea yea, I caught that after I typed on my phone. I've had 4 hrs of sleep last night, cut me a little slack!! Lol.

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Yea yea, I caught that after I typed on my phone. I've had 4 hrs of sleep last night, cut me a little slack!! Lol.

It happens on my phone all the time, autocorrect is a blessing and a curse... No slack needed, I was just playing around...

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