Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Might as well try my luck. Also, let's see if we can get through one entire page before the debbies start acting up. 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 It's exciting any time the Euro shows strong solutions like the past couple runs but the lack of an artic jet connection is going to continue to bother me. This reeks of an instance where you have a small areas of +SN to the immediate west of the low as it bombs with a massive warm tongue...even for areas well to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm rooting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I'm rooting for you. Yep, hopefully he can pull it off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 GFS is trying to play ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 EPIC deep south blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 EPIC deep south blizzard Or cold rainstorm. Depends on if they can get the surface temps down. I think the GFS may catch up to colder surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 signal for someone to get BURIED... being 186 hrs out on the gfs I'd like it to be depicted a litte further east......in the meantime, heads up Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Or cold rainstorm. Depends on if they can get the surface temps down. I think the GFS may catch up to colder surface temps. I see nothing to indicate the GFS is too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Well I'd much rather see a hinting at a southerly track than a NW track. The bad thing is, that it could also go OTS with that kind of track. I'll keep my eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 before everyone laughs at the GFS.... I'm pretty sure I recall that of the rare times in the past that it has beaten up the euro, it is with these crazy southern bowling balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 Too much hand wringing on temps at this distance. Likelihood that we won't have deep cold...likely. But it looks cold enough...again at this range. Let's just keep the storm on the map/models, then we can get to specifics as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 EPIC deep south blizzard Southern ski resorts will be loving it...... oh nm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Too much hand wringing on temps at this distance. Likelihood that we won't have deep cold...likely. But it looks cold enough...again at this range. Let's just keep the storm on the map/models, then we can get to specifics as we get closer. yep, it's a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I see nothing to indicate the GFS is too warm 0 degree line way far north from the precip. I do think the GFS will get colder though due to the cold 850 MB temps. Always get dynamic cooling with these systems as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 0 degree line way far north from the precip. I do think the GFS will get colder though due to the cold 850 MB temps. Always get dynamic cooling with these systems as well. given the stream seperation and no deep cold air out ahead...I think it's pretty realistic that we'll be dealing with surface temps above freezing even for those getting snow...at least early on until heavy precip and cold air can filter in. There was a deep south snowstorm no that long ago where it was above freezing in Chicago and snowing in the south as 850s crashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 given the stream seperation and no deep cold air out ahead...I think it's pretty realistic that we'll be dealing with surface temps above freezing even for those getting snow...at least early on until heavy precip and cold air can filter in. There was a deep south snowstorm no that long ago where it was above freezing in Chicago and snowing in the south as 850s crashed. High elevation of NC should be watching this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 High elevation of NC should be watching this one. Go ahead ride the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 High elevation of NC should be watching this one. Best to bring your analysis here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/13-southeastern-states/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I wouldn't be that concerned with surface temps progs right now. Yes, there isn't a lot of cold air around but it's not like you can't get a good snowstorm even with a temp hanging around 33 or 34 (as long as rates are good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 I wouldn't be that concerned with surface temps progs right now. Yes, there isn't a lot of cold air around but it's not like you can't get a good snowstorm even with a temp hanging around 33 or 34 (as long as rates are good). Of course and given the setup I think it's a good bet that it will be the case again. Outside some minor timing issues...the GFS isn't very far from cutting much further west similar to some of the Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Just read a post from Tombo in the philly thread. Showed the 12zggem 180 hr....nothing nada zilch. Said precursor storm crushes the flow behind it. Makes you wonder if the trend will be the other direction on this one. I think everything hinges on the Dec 15th storm, strength, track etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Of course and given the setup I think it's a good bet that it will be the case again. Outside some minor timing issues...the GFS isn't very far from cutting much further west similar to some of the Euro runs. Yeah the GFS is all over the place when comparing the last like 4 runs at 144hr. Interested to see what the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Of course and given the setup I think it's a good bet that it will be the case again. Outside some minor timing issues...the GFS isn't very far from cutting much further west similar to some of the Euro runs. FWIW, the 00z Euro basically kept the entire state of IL above 32F during the event. I'd be much more concerned with where the 850 mb 0C line sets up but even that isn't a guarantee since there can be sneaky warm layers that aren't seen at that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 before everyone laughs at the GFS.... I'm pretty sure I recall that of the rare times in the past that it has beaten up the euro, it is with these crazy southern bowling balls. Just read a post from Tombo in the philly thread. Showed the 12zggem 180 hr....nothing nada zilch. Said precursor storm crushes the flow behind it. Makes you wonder if the trend will be the other direction on this one. I think everything hinges on the Dec 15th storm, strength, track etc. This is the definition of positive thought right here people. What's the JMA, Korean, and Brazilian got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 Just read a post from Tombo in the philly thread. Showed the 12zggem 180 hr....nothing nada zilch. Said precursor storm crushes the flow behind it. Makes you wonder if the trend will be the other direction on this one. I think everything hinges on the Dec 15th storm, strength, track etc. I can tell that you're already getting nervous about this riding west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 This is the definition of positive thought right here people. What's the JMA, Korean, and Brazilian got? The Brazilian shows the storm missing the MW/OV by a close shave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 And to be clear, the 12z GGEM has a clipper for IL, IN, and OH at the end of its run. Not big mind you, but not nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2012 Author Share Posted December 11, 2012 The Brazilian shows the storm missing the MW/OV by a close shave. lol I'd post a image of it, but I don't want to be banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 11, 2012 Share Posted December 11, 2012 And to be clear, the 12z GGEM has a clipper for IL, IN, and OH at the end of its run. Not big mind you, but not nothing. nothing compared to the gfs crusher extraordinaire.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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