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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

Alpha5

By Alpha5,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Merry Christmas all. A nice, fresh 2.3" last night....boosting snow cover back to 10"....pretty dense snow cover at that....ready for 10-14" here around the SYR area. I bet areas near or south of Rochester will tickle the 20" mark.

Agreed. ROC always manages to do well with this type of setup. Not only are they ideally located with respect to the mid-level features, but they will likely benefit from lake enhancement on a NE wind. I think the jackpot from this event will likely be a toss-up between ROC and the Catskills (the latter benefiting from the easterly LLJ which will unload a ton of QPF on east-facing slopes).

Beautiful Christmas scene here in Orchard Park this morning:

post-619-0-40879700-1356450559_thumb.png

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Justin how do you think we do here in OP with this event? I'm thinking around a foot.

I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point. Climatologically, this type of storm track favors the counties bordering Lake Ontario for the heaviest amounts - amounts up there could be closer to 18" IMO. But here in the south towns, average snowfall amounts around a foot look reasonable.

Sadly, I think I'm going to be missing this event. Looks like the snow will begin in earnest here around 5-6PM tomorrow, and my flight out is scheduled for 6:40. Can't wait to enjoy the rain in Boston. Bummer.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

I think that's a reasonable expectation at this point. Climatologically, this type of storm track favors the counties bordering Lake Ontario for the heaviest amounts - amounts up there could be closer to 18" IMO. But here in the south towns, average snowfall amounts around a foot look reasonable.

Would they benefit from lake enhancement in Niagara and Orleans counties? In the models they seem to be just too far NW of the heaviest QPF especially Niagara County. I would think the heaviest snow would be from the Chautauqua Ridge over southern Erie County to Batavia to Rochester or just south of ROC.
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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Merry christmas everybody!!

Kbgm

ANOTHER INTRSTG NOTE IS THE GFS AND IT/S INSISTENCE OF DVLPG A
DRY SLOT JUST EAST OF BGM. PERHAPS IT/S SHOWING A BIT OF DOWNSLOPE
FROM THE EAST...BUT EXPERIENCE IN THESE TYPE STORMS IS THAT THE
PCPN DROP OFF IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS SHOWN IN THE MODEL FCST.
ALSO INTRSTG IN THAT SOME OF THE OTR MODELS ARE SHOWING THE AREA
TOO...JUST NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

kalb

THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN THAT THE STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL [/color]FLOW

AND ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING MAY CAUSE A SHADOWING EFFECT IN THE

PRECIPITATION AMTS/INTENSITY WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON

RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING EAST TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE

TACONICS/GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES. THIS COULD CAUSE LESS SNOWFALL

AMTS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT VERY

HIGH AT THIS TIME. IT IS DENOTED BY SOME HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING

THE 00Z/25 NAM12...AND WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE TRENDS TO SEE IF A

SHADOWING EFFECT DOES INDEED OCCUR. AS WINDS BACK INTO A MORE NE

DIRECTION THU AM...THIS POTENTIAL SHADOWING EFFECT SHOULD DIMINISH.]

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Warnings now up in BUF. 8-16" with rates of 2"/hr and 20-30mph winds. Sounds like a good time :)

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY

TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN NIAGARA FRONTIER...GENESEE VALLEY AND THE

WESTERN FINGER LAKES.

* TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY

AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY THROUGH

THE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. LOCALIZED

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL

PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2

INCHES PER HOUR OVERNIGHT WILL MAINTAIN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND

VERY POOR VISIBILITY.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Two things worry me about a storm like this and it happened I believe 2 years ago. They always go farther North West then modeled, and there is ALWAYS a dry slot that comes into play that is ALWAYS larger then modeled. I remember an exact forecast of 8-16 inches a few years ago in which we ended up with 3-4 inches from it across the entire area. Not saying it happens with this one, but I say it happens to 50% of synoptic storm that are modeled similar to this.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Two things worry me about a storm like this and it happened I believe 2 years ago. They always go farther North West then modeled, and there is ALWAYS a dry slot that comes into play that is ALWAYS larger then modeled. I remember an exact forecast of 8-16 inches a few years ago in which we ended up with 3-4 inches from it across the entire area. Not saying it happens with this one, but I say it happens to 50% of synoptic storm that are modeled similar to this.

That was the groundhog day storm of 2011. That storm screwed us so bad. The dry slot with that stom was HUGE.
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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Here is the storm I was talking about. Obviously this is a difference track, however this one has a bulls eye about 50-100 miles southeast of here and the jackpot hit northwest of Toronto a 200-300 mile shift. Models handled it so poorly right up to when the event started.

http://www.crh.noaa....?n=2011blizzard

Models don't often handle the NW shift as well as dry slots well at all, it often comes down to now casting. However I remember more "busts" then accumulations coming to fruition for most synoptic storms in this area.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Would they benefit from lake enhancement in Niagara and Orleans counties? In the models they seem to be just too far NW of the heaviest QPF especially Niagara County. I would think the heaviest snow would be from the Chautauqua Ridge over southern Erie County to Batavia to Rochester or just south of ROC.

They certainly could, and I'm starting to wonder if we may see some narrow "fingers" of LES develop up that way tomorrow morning in advance of the main synoptic precip shield which won't arrive until the end of the day. The models do seem to be converging on the heaviest QPF farther south/east, as you mentioned, but I wouldn't be shocked if we end up with a secondary jackpot up in that area especially near the immediate lakeshore communities.

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DeltaT13

DeltaT13

Posted
Posted

Anyone want to take a stab on what transpires here between Hour 42 and Hour 48 on the 6z GFS? I know its an off-hour run and all, but this one is a head scratcher.

My advice to you is to stop scrutinizing off hour model runs. The 6Z and 18z are typically head scratchers because they are lacking a lot of critical data parameters. Seriously, they aren't worth your time.

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sferic

sferic

Posted
Posted

Now that we're outside of 24 hours until tomorrow's storm, is Liberty NY 1,600 Feet in elevation in Sulivan County's Catskills in good shape for tomorrow,? Earliest it cn start snowing?

What is the minimum we can look foward to if mixes ? Maximum if it doesn't?

Does the weekend event look promising here in Sullivan?

Thanks and happy holidays.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

My advice to you is to stop scrutinizing off hour model runs. The 6Z and 18z are typically head scratchers because they are lacking a lot of critical data parameters. Seriously, they aren't worth your time.

lol

over 99% of the data nowadays are assimilated by satellite and other obs. The actual upper air network comprises a tiny amount of the data that goes into the runs. Also, there is no objective difference in skill scores between 06z, 12z, 18z, and 00z runs.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

how do you think well do in the Hamburg/WS/OP areas.

Why do you ask for such specifics when you can just look at the Winter Storm Warning issued from the NWS? You ask what is OP going to get on every weather forum for every event! C'Mon MAN! ^_^

I mean I can understand asking that question if this is lake effect, but this storm basically covers all of WNY.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

how do you think well do in the Hamburg/WS/OP areas.

there's no point in giving specific point forecasts. We'll all do well. Areas near lake ontario will do the best.

Snowfall ratios will be fine. The models are quite ardent on putting strong omega through the SGZ. We only have problems if that omega through the SGZ is weak. Sure it won't be 20:1...but who cares? We'll do slightly better than 10:1, I think.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Now that we're outside of 24 hours until tomorrow's storm, is Liberty NY 1,600 Feet in elevation in Sulivan County's Catskills in good shape for tomorrow,? Earliest it cn start snowing?

What is the minimum we can look foward to if mixes ? Maximum if it doesn't?

Does the weekend event look promising here in Sullivan?

Thanks and happy holidays.

If you read through this thread, a lot of these questions have been answered already. Moderators look for these IMBY posts too, so I'd be cautious about getting too carried away with these. This sub-forum is usually pretty good about it, but can you imagine if every poster in this thread asked these specific questions for their location after each 6-hourly model run?

Sullivan County looks to do just fine for this upcoming event. Your h85 temps get a little marginal after about 09z tomorrow night, but the bulk of the QPF will have fallen by that point anyway. A solid 4-7" snowfall appears likely for you, IMO, followed by a period of sleet/fzra as mid-level temps warm toward the tail end of the event.

Lots of uncertainty regarding the weekend event still. Keep tabs on the discussion in this thread over the next few days, and your questions will be answered.

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