CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Right there, that's the whole reason we do these service assessments really. We (mostly) don't forecast for fun, we do it to get the message to the right people. If there was a breakdown in communication then we absolutely should have service assessment of some kind. I think the reasoning for the lack of a "hurricane" Sandy sounded great to the meteorological community in theory, but did the general public and first responders understand it at all? Did we get too cute and assume it was going to go extra-tropical, thereby not issuing tropical headlines only to take them down later, only to have Sandy thread the needle and stay warm core? Yeah no doubt. I hope some type of SA is done because at the end of the day there's no point in a forecast if you can't disseminate it in a way that's easy to digest and understand. The storm was certainly a hybrid... it was definitely warm core but it was also frontal and getting its energy from baroclinic forcing. For a storm that originally was a hurricane I'm not sure why a hybrid needs to become ET when it has some tropical characteristics. Floyd, Bertha, Irene were clearly transitioning but we kept them tropical through New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yeah no doubt. I hope some type of SA is done because at the end of the day there's no point in a forecast if you can't disseminate it in a way that's easy to digest and understand. The storm was certainly a hybrid... it was definitely warm core but it was also frontal and getting its energy from baroclinic forcing. For a storm that originally was a hurricane I'm not sure why a hybrid needs to become ET when it has some tropical characteristics. Floyd, Bertha, Irene were clearly transitioning but we kept them tropical through New England. And this is really the most confusing part to me. What was the difference here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 i was at a halloween party the saturday before sandy hit and people were saying it wouldn't be that bad because of what bloomberg said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yeah no doubt. I hope some type of SA is done because at the end of the day there's no point in a forecast if you can't disseminate it in a way that's easy to digest and understand. The storm was certainly a hybrid... it was definitely warm core but it was also frontal and getting its energy from baroclinic forcing. For a storm that originally was a hurricane I'm not sure why a hybrid needs to become ET when it has some tropical characteristics. Floyd, Bertha, Irene were clearly transitioning but we kept them tropical through New England. And it had the best warm core anomalies almosy before landfall. If the NWS M.O. is to protect life and property, wouldn't it have been wise to abandon riding the exact definitions of what is tropical and what isn't...and just go with watches or warnings to better emphasize impact? It's not like this was a clear x/t system...this thing had a second wind max and conveciton near the center not far offshore. It's not going to lose all tropical aspects in several hours. I appreciate the scientific efforts that went into this, but sometimes there comes a point where you have to weigh things and decide the best approach or philosophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 And this is really the most confusing part to me. What was the difference here? The only difference was that this storm transitioned to a strengthening warm seclusion. Maintaining a tight inner core with a (record) large area of gale force winds should be all the more reason to keep it tropical. The more time that goes on the more confounding the decision seems to be. We keep things tropical that are weakening during ET but a storm that's strengthening during ET we write off as post tropical. Again I thought the local NWS offices did the best they could in a challenging situation. I really had the most positive and productive conversations with OKX and BOX leading up to and during the storm in trying to get the correct information out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The only difference was that this storm transitioned to a strengthening warm seclusion. Maintaining a tight inner core with a (record) large area of gale force winds should be all the more reason to keep it tropical. The more time that goes on the more confounding the decision seems to be. We keep things tropical that are weakening during ET but a storm that's strengthening during ET we write off as post tropical. Again I thought the local NWS offices did the best they could in a challenging situation. I really had the most positive and productive conversations with OKX and BOX leading up to and during the storm in trying to get the correct information out. don't forget mount holly and their excellent public briefings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 And it had the best warm core anomalies almosy before landfall. If the NWS M.O. is to protect life and property, wouldn't it have been wise to abandon riding the exact definitions of what is tropical and what isn't...and just go with watches or warnings to better emphasize impact? It's not like this was a clear x/t system...this thing had a second wind max and conveciton near the center not far offshore. It's not going to lose all tropical aspects in several hours. I appreciate the scientific efforts that went into this, but sometimes there comes a point where you have to weigh things and decide the best approach or philosophy. It was the most "tropical"storm I've seen around these parts since Bob. Think of how many tropical storm/hurricane watches we've had for storms that had little/no inner core left, were quickly becoming cold core, and rapidly losing strength. How is it that the storm that was intensifying... with a tight core... AND remaining solidly warm core... is declared PT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 don't forget mount holly and their excellent public briefings Yes, Gary should be commended for the work he and his office did. I didn't have any one-on-one interaction with them but they were great at getting information out from what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yes, Gary should be commended for the work he and his office did. I didn't have any one-on-one interaction with them but they were great at getting information out from what I saw. the tone of the final few statements was basically "get out or die" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 i had such a sinking feeling after seeing the low level convective precip blossom as sandy moved into nj. all that time looking at an unstable layer on bufkit with 70+ knot winds in that layer and it actually started verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 the tone of the final few statements was basically "get out or die" And even those statements would ring a little less hollow to the public with a hurricane warning to back them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 And even those statements would ring a little less hollow to the public with a hurricane warning to back them up. it felt funny when the nhc declared sandy post tropical right before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 it felt funny when the nhc declared sandy post tropical right before landfall I think it all goes back to what would have happened late Friday or ealry Saturday if the NHC was forecasting a strengthening cat 1 hurricane at landfall in the perfect spot for big NYC surge. Regardless of what we were saying the impacts would be the message got muddied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 It was the most "tropical"storm I've seen around these parts since Bob. Think of how many tropical storm/hurricane watches we've had for storms that had little/no inner core left, were quickly becoming cold core, and rapidly losing strength. How is it that the storm that was intensifying... with a tight core... AND remaining solidly warm core... is declared PT. Yep and like you said, this is an NHC thing not WFO which did awesome given the cluster fook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yep and like you said, this is an NHC thing not WFO which did awesome given the cluster fook. Also not sure how much NWS HQ/Eastern Region had to do with it. Not sure if the decision was solely NHCs or not. I think it brings up a broader point about the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the entire warning process and how we communicate threat. No easy answers here but we've seen in recent years (Sandy and Joplin) that there's work to be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 might as well say it: the decision not to issue a hurricane warning probably cost lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The other thing that needs to be looked at is how much did the perceived "false alarm" from Irene result in inaction in NYC and NJ and even parts of Long Island. Here in CT where we were hit very hard by Irene (in terms of surge, especially) saying the storm would be "as bad or worse" got people to take action. People on the shoreline were genuinely concerned. I have a feeling saying "as bad or worse" than Irene in NYC would result in continued complacency because of the perceived Irene bust. Lots goes into how people perceive risk and make decisions based on weather information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 If you watch the Bloomberg Sat presser you can see the pained look on staff present. I think I read that his EM was furious. Hence the flip flop. It's obvious SS needs to be scrapped, Cat2/3 surge with 1 winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Also not sure how much NWS HQ/Eastern Region had to do with it. Not sure if the decision was solely NHCs or not. I think it brings up a broader point about the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the entire warning process and how we communicate threat. No easy answers here but we've seen in recent years (Sandy and Joplin) that there's work to be done. All I know is the decision was made before my string of mids started, so I didn't get to participate in that discussion at all. I just know we had nightly conference calls with ER to make sure headlines were coordinated between WFOs. So a SA would have (hopefully) cleared up a lot of questions that I had as well. It's just all very confusing to me. The great work people are doing with researching the response to watch/warning statements tells us that people always look for the way out of action. And we turn around and hand them that out on a silver platter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 If you watch the Bloomberg Sat presser you can see the pained look on staff present. I think I read that his EM was furious. Hence the flip flop. It's obvious SS needs to be scrapped, Cat2/3 surge with 1 winds Was it though? Not sure your assessment of cat 2/3 surge is correct. 2 issues that made it worse include geography of the coast that exacerbate surge as was well forecast. Other issue was extreme wave action due to high IKE that lead to even worse damage in places like Long Island and Rhode Island where surge values were "only" around 5 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Was it though? Not sure your assessment of cat 2/3 surge is correct. 2 issues that made it worse include geography of the coast that exacerbate surge as was well forecast. Other issue was extreme wave action due to high IKE that lead to even worse damage in places like Long Island and Rhode Island where surge values were "only" around 5 ft. parts of nj/nyc had a 10 foot surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 ...RECORD SETTING STORM TIDE AT THE SANDY HOOK, NJ NOS TIDE SITE DURING COASTAL STORM SANDY... PRELIMINARY DATA PRIOR TO POWER BEING LOST, THE SANDY HOOK TIDE GAUGE RECORDED A LEVEL OF 13.3 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER /MLLW/, WHICH IS AT LEAST 3.2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.1 FEET SET DURING HURRICANE DONNA ON SEPTEMBER 12, 1960. FUTURE REVIEW OF THIS DATA, ONCE IT BECOMES AVAILABLE, WILL PROBABLY REVEAL AN EVEN HIGHER TIDE DURING MONDAY EVENING OCTOBER 29, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 parts of nj/nyc had a 10 foot surge Which seems to me to be consistent with a cat 1 with that type of path. Surge in CT was 5-10 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Which seems to me to be consistent with a cat 1 with that type of path. Surge in CT was 5-10 feet. so you're taking into account local/regional geography... i just read your previous post. i think sultan's 2/3 surge is more generalized. a cat 2/3 would be incredibly devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 If you watch the Bloomberg Sat presser you can see the pained look on staff present. I think I read that his EM was furious. Hence the flip flop. It's obvious SS needs to be scrapped, Cat2/3 surge with 1 winds And yet, if you go to your state's webpage to find out coastal flood information it is all listed by category of storm. Really misleading for the general public trying to figure out what to prepare for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 ...RECORD SETTING STORM TIDE AT THE SANDY HOOK, NJ NOS TIDE SITE DURING COASTAL STORM SANDY... PRELIMINARY DATA PRIOR TO POWER BEING LOST, THE SANDY HOOK TIDE GAUGE RECORDED A LEVEL OF 13.3 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER /MLLW/, WHICH IS AT LEAST 3.2 FEET HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.1 FEET SET DURING HURRICANE DONNA ON SEPTEMBER 12, 1960. FUTURE REVIEW OF THIS DATA, ONCE IT BECOMES AVAILABLE, WILL PROBABLY REVEAL AN EVEN HIGHER TIDE DURING MONDAY EVENING OCTOBER 29, 2012. My point was given the storm's path and intensity I don't think anyone was surprised by a 10 foot storm surge in the areas that got hit by it. Imagine if the storm was a cat 2 or 3 at landfall. The other issue, as well, in places like E LI and RI was that the record wave action made a 5 foot surge significantly more dangerous and destructive than it would have otherwise been. In Connecticut the storm tides (in some cases) were quite a bit higher than Irene, but the wave action was more limited in areas that lack eastern exposure so the impact was less. More goes in to damage than just the water level in some cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 And yet, if you go to your state's webpage to find out coastal flood information it is all listed by category of storm. Really misleading for the general public trying to figure out what to prepare for. Here in CT, given the path of the storm among other reasons, they evacuated up to a cat 4 level. Clearly overdone but not a bad call given what happened to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Here in CT, given the path of the storm among other reasons, they evacuated up to a cat 4 level. Clearly overdone but not a bad call given what happened to our south. Well the push at the WFO level is certainly to move away from strict values and more towards impacts. Which given a Sandy-like situation makes more sense. As you said wave action and coastal geography put more emphasis on water level than winds did. Of course these impact graphics are only triggered when we have tropical headlines out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 lets talk wind, here is the official 1/2 designations, winds were at max 90 or so. with the type of tree damage we saw in spots was this 2 damage with 1 winds? 2-Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Category Sustained Winds Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds 1 74-95 mph 64-82 kt 119-153 km/h Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days. 2 96-110 mph 83-95 kt 154-177 km/h Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 then there is this with surge mentioned, would you consider this 1 surge? One 74-95 mph No real damage to building structures. Damage primarly to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage Two 96-110 mph Some roofing material, door, and window damage to buildings. Considerable damage to vegetation, mobile homes, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Three 111-130 mph Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Mobile homes are destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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