hm8 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 First round of storms/showers moving through S MI should be just enough to get my bike seat soaked while I'm in class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted September 5, 2012 Author Share Posted September 5, 2012 Kind of suprised by the increased probabilities, either way the sun is out and the atmosphere is starting to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 SPC certainly doesn't agree with y'all.... 5/30/30 hatched for N. IL on the new Outlook they're the pros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I am not sure why there is all this negativity in this thread this morning, I still see a really good opportunity this afternoon for most of us. I mean hell it is only 1PM/2PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I am not sure why there is all this negativity in this thread this morning, I still see a really good opportunity this afternoon for most of us. I mean hell it is only 1PM/2PM... mlcape is still under 500 across Chicagoland which is well under what was being modeled yesterday for this time....better instability is lurking close by though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 mlcape is still under 500 across Chicagoland which is well under what was being modeled yesterday for this time....better instability is lurking close by though Give it 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Give it 4 hours. hopefully. Can't leave work till 4 15pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 hopefully. Can't leave work till 4 15pm. Yeah, this was going to be an evening event from what I had been seeing anyways. Furthermore the upper support is still back over MN/W WI. Also looking at the shear values I'd argue that they are better than expected for today. A couple good hours of sunshine across N IL/S WI will do wonders to this potential, which I expect we will be seeing that sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I am not sure why there is all this negativity in this thread this morning, I still see a really good opportunity this afternoon for most of us. I mean hell it is only 1PM/2PM... I do have some cautious optimism. My temp has been skyrocketing since I got some clearing around 10am. Up to 85 at the moment. A few more hours of heating and lets see where the instability goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I hate to be that guy, but it has to be said. It reaaallly doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I'm going to be stuck in the loop until late this evening because i'm swamped...on the plus side, unobstructed west views from teh 27th floor FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 I hate to be that guy, but it has to be said. Looks like Southeast Michigan gets screwed AGAIN. No you don't because we don't need to hear the same tired comment about SEMI being screwed. It has grown old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 It's definitely heating up quickly outside. There's a noticeable difference in the last hour or so. I wish I wasn't going to be stuck at work all evening because it might get interesting after 6pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 FWIW, the crapvection that just came through did nothing to work over the atmosphere. LI's increased to -6 and CAPE values are still 1500-2000 J/KG. But despite that, I do have to wonder how much of an impact the subsidence behind this "wave" will have on development for the rest of the day, especially since the best instability/moisture has been shunted to the SW and we're just beyond peak heating. With a relative extensive stratocumulus deck filling in just east of LM and along the WI/IL border, there's clearly still a decent inversion in place from this morning's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 SPC sticking to there guns, but IND already says chances for more thunderstorm activity are diminishing in there latest AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 259 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 145 PM CDT A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME WINDOW BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM...BUT CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL EVOLUTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...PARTLY AS A RESULT OF THE EARLIER WAKE LOW...IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE SURFACE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. THIS HAS HELPED TO INCREASE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/FAR NORTHERN IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 20 KT. THIS IS OF COURSE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY AND THE ALREADY WESTERLY WINDS MAY CREATE PROBLEMS FOR DEEPER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRIMARY BOUNDARY. CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED AND SCOURED IN MANY AREAS AND ALLOWED FOR FAIRLY RAPID WARMING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA. ADAPTING AN AMDAR SOUNDING FOR THE ROCKFORD 1 PM OBSERVATION INDICATES THE SURFACE BASED CIN IS DOWN TO 100 J/KG. /DOWN 400 J/KG IN THE PAST THREE HOURS/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS INDICATING THE FIRST CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI/FAR NORTHWEST IL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT. WHILE THIS IS STABLE LOOKING INITIALLY...CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE FRONT STRENGTHENS WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND BE IN TANDEM WITH THE RETURN OF INSTABILITY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE REMNANT COLD POOL. FURTHER AIDING THIS WILL BE THE FORCING OF A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED DRYING ON WATER VAPOR MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN WI/SOUTHERN MN. EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING DISCRETE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN WI/NORTH CENTRAL IL. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ALONG THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT MENTIONED EARLIER NOW ACROSS THE NORTH METRO MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT TOO. DESPITE THE AGGRESSION OF THE MODELS AND THE DIMINISHING CIN...SATELLITE TRENDS ARE NOT POSITIVE FOR IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT. ANY DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE INITIALLY AS WELL...BUT COULD IMPROVE AS THE NORTHWESTERLY PUSH CATCHES UP TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AIDING IN MORE SEGMENT TYPE STRUCTURE. HOW FAR SOUTH ANY ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP OR MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT EVOLVES EAST IS CHALLENGING TO TELL AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...A CONTINUED ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION. CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AND HOW IT WOULD BEHAVE IS LOW. WITH EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE TO 40-50 KT AND AT LEAST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SUPERCELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF DEVELOPMENT CAN HAPPEN THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE IN THE -10C TO -30C HAIL GROWTH AREA...LARGE HAIL WOULD SEEM LIKE THE GREATER THREAT INITIALLY...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING WITH ANY ORGANIZATION. THE 0-1 KM SHEAR HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED AS THE DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT AT THE SURFACE HAS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST/WEST ACROSS NORTHERN IL. CANT RULE OUT THE TORNADO POSSIBILITY...BUT MAY NEED TO SEE SOME STORM DEVELOPMENT SOON ACROSS THE AREA FOR THAT TO OCCUR. WILL SEE WHAT THE SOUNDINGS FROM 19Z SPECIAL RAOB RELEASES AT DVN AND ILX LOOK LIKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Atmosphere feels somewhat destabilized here. 80/70 currently. Lot of clouds around now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 still capped out west but very nice plume of steep mid-level lapse rates if storms go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 88 at Rt. 59/90. Adjusted car temp reading. Patchy sun at best but still not too thick of a deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Not sure how this will play out for Chicago, but you can see several boundaries on the radar, could make things very interesting later on if stuff does go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 the delay in inititation is certainly working in our favor right now…at least for those of us who couldn't care less about discrete sups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 new cu on last vis sat scan trying to get going at 88/39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 new cu on last vis sat scan trying to get going at 88/39 Very narrow band of small cu beneath the mid level deck appearing now from about 90/Fox River sw to that vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 new cu on last vis sat scan trying to get going at 88/39 Very narrow band of small cu beneath the mid level deck appearing now from about 90/Fox River sw to that vicinity. Can see that line out my window...not doing much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Hope you can get some nice t storm action from your hi rise view, Alek, I was surprised with the intensity of the storms last night in sw WI. Really did not expect that. Hope the upper air support and other factors come together for this evening's potential. Had a good soaking heavy rain from the dying MCS this morning around 10 am EDT as it passed through Elkhart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 Hope you can get some nice t storm action from your hi rise view, Alek, I was surprised with the intensity of the storms last night in sw WI. Really did not expect that. Hope the upper air support and other factors come together for this evening's potential. Had a good soaking heavy rain from the dying MCS this morning around 10 am EDT as it passed through Elkhart. I was playing video games when that line came through...sounded pretty solid but nothing epic. I should be better attuned to this action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 DTX has a solid write up on this evenings potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 84 at 47/176. More sun south than north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1896 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0402 PM CDT WED SEP 05 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 052102Z - 052230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS ACROSS FAR NRN IL AND SRN WI...AND THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS AFFECTED BY EARLY DAY CONVECTION...BUT SOME RECOVERY HAS TAKEN PLACE. STREAMLINES ARE CONVERGING OVER THE AREA BUT SOME CAPPING EXISTS. THE SURFACE THETA-E AXIS REMAINS W OF THE AREA...BUT MORE BUOYANT AIR MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE IN SLOWLY FROM THE SW. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE FORCING WILL OVERCOME CAPPING...BUT IF IT DOES...CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 5, 2012 Share Posted September 5, 2012 still seeing little to no vertical growth to the west/northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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