JamieOber Posted October 1, 2012 Share Posted October 1, 2012 Snow on the GFS again tonight in about the h240 range. 540 line stays in or near PA from about hour 144 through about 256. Suffice to say that the 2nd week of October looks quite chilly. Wouldn't be surprised to see the first lake effect episode of the season in the upper lakes and some flakes in the Laurels if it continues to look like that. And as mentioned the other day, the recurving major typhoon (or whats left of it as its lifting away from Japan) is a good indicator for a decent east coast trough about 8 days or so down the road. I'm sure the 6z GFS with its glacier building bias will try to give us a snowstorm or something when that rolls in later this morning. That said, it does seem to be a cold week in store next week. I am going to be in Milwaukee for part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Dismal day today, but we do need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Dismal day today, but we do need the rain. Has it been dry down your way? MDT was normal in Sept and UNV slightly above normal. But I have no idea about MD. Also, I have no idea why, but I like fall rainy days. Probably part of my sickness....weather enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Nearly 9 inches in September here. We don't need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Has it been dry down your way? MDT was normal in Sept and UNV slightly above normal. But I have no idea about MD. Also, I have no idea why, but I like fall rainy days. Probably part of my sickness....weather enthusiasm. I was just telling my co-worker the same thing, that for some reason i like fall rainy days! I'm not sure, but i think it reminds me when i was a kid and we'd be playing football outside on a cool fall day when it was raining and you could smell everyones wood burners and the smoke hung low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 It certainly looks wet again this weekend as GFS and Euro are progging a wave to run along the tight boundary separating warm weather from the impending significant downturn in temps next week. Todays 12z GFS continues the possibility of the first snowflakes of the season in the NW and Laurels early next week as it digs a decent trough and has a couple disturbances rounding the trough on Tuesday and Thursday of next week. The second (and stronger) of which at hour 216 has the look of an interior and high elevation snow event for PA and upstate NY. Thats still in the lol range but I wouldn't completely take something like that off the table given our track record the last few years. We're 2/3 in the last three Octobers with pulling off an early event...and it appears the potential is there for it to happen next week if the stars align. The overnight Euro doesn't have this and has been consistently less amplified than the GFS with the trough overall, so it'll be interesting to see what ends up winning that battle. The Euro is still chilly enough for the aformentioned early week flakes. So for now, I think it'll be sufficient to highlight a good possibility of some upslope flakes in the typical areas as well as an overall frost/freeze potential for most of the central next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Haha, I just stumbled onto the whole TWC naming winter storms story. Link Americanwx Thread #RejectedTWCNames Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Honestly, and you see my opinions in the main thread on this, I just don't know how they pull this off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 2, 2012 Share Posted October 2, 2012 Haha, I just stumbled onto the whole TWC naming winter storms story. Link Americanwx Thread #RejectedTWCNames Enjoy This is the definition of stupidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Honestly, and you see my opinions in the main thread on this, I just don't know how they pull this off. Yea I posted a couple thoughts over on the other thread, I'm of the opinion that I would've rather seen NOAA introduce something like this, as the private sector entities would have had to adopt it and there would be no possible confusion of private weather companies using different names and etc. But otherwise, winter storms have a ton of variables and many different impacts that makes it hard to have clear cut criteria on whether to slap a name on it. Should be interesting to see how it pans out though. Also, favorite #RejectedTWCName tweet so far: "Winter Storm Kanye: Imma let you finish, but Winter Storm Beyonce had one of the best storms of all time" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Yea I posted a couple thoughts over on the other thread, I'm of the opinion that I would've rather seen NOAA introduce something like this, as the private sector entities would have had to adopt it and there would be no possible confusion of private weather companies using different names and etc. But otherwise, winter storms have a ton of variables and many different impacts that makes it hard to have clear cut criteria on whether to slap a name on it. Should be interesting to see how it pans out though. Also, favorite #RejectedTWCName tweet so far: "Winter Storm Kanye: Imma let you finish, but Winter Storm Beyonce had one of the best storms of all time" I'm pretty excited for the naming of winter storms. Although I would much prefer HPC did it, but this is a start. I like it mainly for the categorization and organization purposes. I don't mind the NEISS scale, but I want a true brute strength scale of winter storms instead of a scale affecting population. I would like to see a ranking system rather than a naming system. Kinda like what accuweather does with their 1-5 but would rather see a 1-10 scale. Plus who wouldn't want to track a winter storm Would love to have actual winter storm paths to track and relate to past identical storm tracks and case studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 3, 2012 Share Posted October 3, 2012 Hey guys, we are posting our winter outlook this weekend. Come check us out. https://www.facebook.com/hwpcwx www.hwpcwx.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Oh here we go, http://twitter.com/B...3485440/photo/1 After having a look at the Euro, this isn't terribly far fetched but I think it'll be just a bit too warm with this frontal wave. You can make an argument for high elevation snow with the 12z Euro, with 850s below zero and 925s below 2ºC primarily in the nw part of the state. Runs that have had this wave the past few days have been kinda close to pulling some kind of an elevational event off. Todays runs have a familiar model take with the GFS flat and the Euro amplifying this pretty decently. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the really high folks like top of Laurel Summit, Mt Davis, Potter country above 2k, etc saw some flakes mix in before this wave moves out but I think we'd need a more significantly amplified wave to drive anything lower than that. Another noteworthy thing about the 12z model suite is that the Euro today looks like a couple of the earlier GFS runs anchoring a nice trough with waves reinforcing a below average temperature regime right through 240. There's a period about 216-234 where northern half of PA is sub 528 in thickness. The GFS lifts things out more after the first half of the week kinda like the Euro had in previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Indeed. Middle of next week might get close to freezing here in the lower Susky valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 4, 2012 Share Posted October 4, 2012 Early returns on 0z Euro text appear to indicate that it continues to have a more amplified version of the frontal wave for Sunday/Sun night with a modest QPF event (about 0.5 or so) and another close call thermally. JST, AOO, and UNV have 850 temps a few tenths above 0 for the bulk of the precipitation (pit and bradford below 0 at 850) with 2m temps barely above 40ºF. Certainly a very cold rain at least. 0z GFS was flat and pretty much had no precip at all. The GFS did previously have this event so it could be an early showing of the classic GFS losing something in the near mid range and getting it back in the short range. The euros tracking of this wave and trough has been placing primarily NW PA in the zone where temps aloft have the best potential to allow for high elevation wet snow with the Laurels being just a bit too far east in slightly warmer temps aloft. Assuming the GFS is currently wrong and comes back toward the Euro and the Euro gives a bit to slightly more progressive solution, we could see the Laurels in the best thermals aloft. Overall this is reminiscent of last year's beginning of October system that dropped up to a few inches in some of the higher Laurels after a very cold rainfall with temps in the low-mid 40s in C-PA. That system was a good bit deeper if I recall though, so I continue to think if any white ended up falling out of this, any accums would be light and you'd probably have to be in a really high place to see snow at all. Still model discrepancy on if we even see precip with this and still got some time till this starts getting into NAM range so we'll see. The last few years have really skewed the fact that generally it is really hard to see measurable snow anywhere in PA during early-mid Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2012 Author Share Posted October 4, 2012 We might not hit 50 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 First push cool weather this weekend...should get the leaves changing quickly after a few cloudy days and cold nights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 We might not hit 50 on Sunday. you're right, looks like it will be a struggle. looks like some light rain moves in later Sunday too.(lower Susq. Valley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 6, 2012 Share Posted October 6, 2012 Hey everyone, here is our winter outlook for this year. http://www.hwpcwx.org/2012/10/winter-outlook-2012-2013.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 I wish I still lived in PA. Winter stops at the Mason-Dixon Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 7, 2012 Share Posted October 7, 2012 I wish I still lived in PA. Winter stops at the Turnpike. FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I wish I still lived in PA. Winter stops at the Mason-Dixon Line. Hey there was 09-10 haha, most of that winter started at the Mason-Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 I guess the 1st Fire will be tonight to take the chill off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Yeah might have to turn the heat on tonight. I always say we'll wait until Nov 1 and of course that never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Looks like some heavy, heavy frosting for Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 11, 2012 Share Posted October 11, 2012 Freeze watches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 12, 2012 Share Posted October 12, 2012 Boy I sure hope this is a sign of a good winter, but last year burned me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 A nice crisp 27ºF here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 13, 2012 Share Posted October 13, 2012 Brother back home said it was 23F, wooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 13, 2012 Author Share Posted October 13, 2012 Requiescat in pace, growing season 2012. UNIVERSITY PARK PA Fair 31°F -1°C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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