Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 12z ECMWF is also starting to like 92L 18z intensity was...bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The 12Z GFS ensemble mean has two SLP minima associated with the "Senegal Screamer"TM threatening the US on 8/22: one over S FL prior to heading NW into the GOM and one over E NC. This is still way out in Lala land, but it is interesting nonetheless since it is a system the GFS wants to quickly develop just off Africa in only about three days. Regardless, it will have to fight El Nino climo as well as high latitude climoto make it that far. 1) El Nino climo for CV storms: I was able to find no more than six storms that formed east of 45 W that either hit the U.S. or went into the W. Caribbean: -Frances and Ivan of 2004: weak Nino -Dog of 1951: weak Nino (using the older ENSO classification) -#1 of 1900: weak to borderline moderate Nino -#3 of 1899: strong Nino Per the new ENSO classification: Carol of 1953..weak Nino So, it appears that it helps if the Nino is weak (as is the case today) as 5 of the 6 storms were during weak to borderline moderate Nino's. Also, three of these six had E ATL WSW motion. 2) Hurting its chances significantly is that it forms near 17N. Regarding the referenced six storms, five formed way down between 10N and 12N while only Carol of 1953 was up at 16N. Since 1851, only six storms formed N of 15N/E of 45W and made it to the U.S.: -#6 of 1893: 18.1N -Carol of 1953: 16.0N -Connie of 1955: 15.3N -Diane of 1955: 17.0N -Ione of 1955: 15.4N -Ike of 2008: 17.2N In summary: whereas any potential WSW motion would help its chances to make it at least pretty far west, the expectation for it to be as far north as ~17N definitely hurts the chances of it making it to the US. Also, El Nino climo hurts the chances of a US hit although it being only a weak Nino gives it a better chance than if it had been strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That's some risky business riding the 26C isotherm like that. For now, I think climo will kick this to the curb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Whats interesting is according to the loops this is not nearly as high in latitude as the models are currently suggesting, the rotation and convection is all below 15N (I'd say around 13.5N) which obviously may make a rather big difference and as superstorm's image shows, that may actually make a large difference with regards to its developmental chances early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The 12z Euro does have a very weak system maybe 600 miles north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico out 240 hours, but it looks like it's going to recurve just after. I think it's the first Euro run I've seen with a defined system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Whats interesting is according to the loops this is not nearly as high in latitude as the models are currently suggesting, the rotation and convection is all below 15N (I'd say around 13.5N) which obviously may make a rather big difference and as superstorm's image shows, that may actually make a large difference with regards to its developmental chances early on. Once it passes Dakar and the sounding from there is incorporated we could see a model shift to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The GFS Ensembles are pretty gung-ho about the African wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Individual ensemble members lol Sent from my 4G 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The GFS Ensembles are pretty gung-ho about the African wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Here is my annual reminder that the GFS ensembles suck at predicting cyclogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 And are we really obsessing over the latitude of an MCS over Central Africa? You guys really need to relax, it's a long season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Can we have a separate banter thread for all of the 384 hr GFS and nonsense model postings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Can we have a separate banter thread for all of the 384 hr GFS and nonsense model postings? No, but we can have some 5-post restrictions soon, if people don't get a grip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Can we have a separate banter thread for all of the 384 hr GFS and nonsense model postings? I'm not sure 384h GFS individual ensemble members are even appropriate in a banter thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Can we have a separate banter thread for all of the 384 hr GFS and nonsense model postings? It's not even a tropical cyclone yet, please relax. Nobody takes the ensembles seriously; and mainly posted so people don't overlook the potential of this threat. GaWx's post is very good and tells us that it's not likely something makes it across but also that it's not completely impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 No, but we can have some 5-post restrictions soon, if people don't get a grip <3 you bendy I'm not sure 384h GFS individual ensemble members are even appropriate in a banter thread.... I felt like being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 and mainly posted so people don't overlook the potential of this threat. Are you being serious right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's not even a tropical cyclone yet, please relax. Nobody takes the ensembles seriously; and mainly posted so people don't overlook the potential of this threat. GaWx's post is very good and tells us that it's not likely something makes it across but also that it's not completely impossible. 384 hours = 16 days. No one is going to overlook a giant hurricane in the Atlantic... it's not as if they suddenly appear. Also you contradict yourself. If no one takes the ensembles seriously, why are you posting them so people "don't overlook the 'threat'"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 How could you have a 984 mean on an ensemble @ 384? That has to be an individual member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 384 hours = 16 days. No one is going to overlook a giant hurricane in the Atlantic... it's not as if they suddenly appear. Also you contradict yourself. If no one takes the ensembles seriously, why are you posting them so people "don't overlook the 'threat'"? I don't recall such a strong signal from the GFS ensembles for a decent African wave train this year, thought it was worth posting but I admit that I'm not aware of their accuracy; according to PSU they are not worth posting. My thinking was how could the low resolution ensembles depict a hurricane like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 How could you have a 984 mean on an ensemble @ 384? That has to be an individual member. It's not a mean. One is p007, another p005, and another is p009. Yet another reason these shouldn't be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I don't recall such a strong signal from the GFS ensembles for a decent African wave train this year, thought it was worth posting but I admit that I'm not aware of their accuracy; according to PSU they are not worth posting. My thinking was how could the low resolution ensembles depict a hurricane like that? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12ztropf384.html There is every single ensemble member for 384 hours of the 12Z GFS Notice how divergent the solutions are? It's late August at that time, so of course some of the members are going to show a TC... but put aside your weenie fantasies for a moment and also notice how many do not show anything of the sort. (Note: Apologies to others for posting any 384 hr model output... attempting to be educational for a moment.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 And are we really obsessing over the latitude of an MCS over Central Africa? You guys really need to relax, it's a long season. I don't think thats such a bad thing really, if it comes off 3-4 degrees south of where the majority of the models are trying to form it, that will have a big difference to its *developmental* chances, due to SST's etc. I'm not talking about this system and its latitude right now with regards to track, I'm talking from the point of a possible TC coming from this. The track at this stage will shift many times yet IF it develops at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I don't think thats such a bad thing really, if it comes off 3-4 degrees south of where the majority of the models are trying to form it, that will have a big difference to its *developmental* chances, due to SST's etc. I'm not talking about this system and its latitude right now with regards to track, I'm talking from the point of a possible TC coming from this. The track at this stage will shift many times yet IF it develops at all. It's two days away from even reaching the Atlantic. It's a pointless conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 It's two days away from even reaching the Atlantic. It's a pointless conversation. How is it pointless to discuss something that may only be 2-3 days from development, plenty of models try to develop at least a weak system from this wave in the near future (IE within 96hrs) I'm guessing even something within 96hrs is not worth pointing out ever again then...ho hum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 How is it pointless to discuss something that may only be 2-3 days from development, plenty of models try to develop at least a weak system from this wave in the near future (IE within 96hrs) I'm guessing even something within 96hrs is not worth pointing out ever again then...ho hum! Talking about immediate development off the coast of Africa is ok - we can probably forecast that with some skill. Then extrapolating into its chances of becoming a hurricane or reaching the United States is pointless drivel. There was a whole lot more of the latter than the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 I bet the GFS is is within 2,500 miles this time. However 30 miles off is a big deal. This also shows elevated odds. But then again it's just something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 That chart depicts the time period after this upcoming African wave. August 22-24 would be the time period for potential effects from the first African wave. The wave after it looks promising as well, which shows up well in these charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 ^^ See posts 1139, 1141 & 1148... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31496-atlantic-tropical-action-2012-part-i/page__st__1120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 The last couple of years the GFS has been very good when it consistently predicts a strong tropical system, so this is definitely something to watch with interest. That is about all that I take away now. Does anyone remember the system 5-10 years ago that all of the models forecast to develop quickly and to be a monster but then poofed soon after it hit the water? It did reach depression or even storm status but then died out despite very favorable conditions and unanimous model support. The NHC obituary discussion said something like, "How little we understand about cyclogenesis in the deep tropics...." That captured what I find so interesting about the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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