Brian5671 Posted July 31, 2012 Share Posted July 31, 2012 Every year the models smoke a few joints and spit out doom tracks for the northeast. The odds of this happening are extremely low and I wouldn't buy a scenario like the one that is shown even if most of the models had it. Tropical cyclone tracks can change from run to run, and posts like the GGEM ensemble porn belong in the banter thread. In order to get a cyclone up here with that type of strength you would need for it be aborbed into a negatively tilted trough and you would need blocking. Otherwise you have the westerlies and the problem with cold SST. The TC simply can not make it up this far north fast enough before either the westerlies push them offshore or they weaken for a variety of other reasons. You need a fast moving TC which has been absorbed or partially absorbed into a negatively tilted through. A trough that deep and that strong is not exactly easy to come by during the Summer. Which is why a strike here before say 8/25 is extremely rare...deeper troughs in Sept, so more likely then..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 31, 2012 Author Share Posted July 31, 2012 Upgraded to Medium chance of becoming tropical cyclone ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. 2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Upgraded once again to 50 % chance of becoming tropical cyclone Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant. Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks GIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS <a name="2">2. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL SPREAD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Supposed to be in Bermuda all of next week. I'm hoping that 99L stays away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Upgraded To High Chance of Becoming Tropical Cyclone Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant. Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks GIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 The tropics are finally picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 UPGRADED TO 70 % CHANCE OF BECOMIG TROPICAL CYCLONE Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant. Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks GIS data: .shp ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Now TD 5. In five days, NHC has it 75mph hurricane just south of Jamaica: 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012044 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012 DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Now TD 5. In five days, NHC has it 75mph hurricane just south of Jamaica: 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012044 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012 DURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE. MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATER ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. OUR BEST TWO GLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 12.2N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE Interesting well see, how are the conditions ahead of the track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Interesting well see, how are the conditions ahead of the track? There is are large upper-level low over the Central Atlantic, causing shear over it now. But once it moves away from that ULL, it will run into a more favorable environment over the Carribean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 1, 2012 Author Share Posted August 1, 2012 Now Tropical Depression 5 Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – InteractiveNew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 8 AM - 8/2 Update 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021134 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 800 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012 ...DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 53.5W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H. A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED... AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 You know there is a thread about TD 5 in the main weather forum? There are alot of good thoughts here, and many will never get a chance to gain insight from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 8/2 2 PM Update 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021752 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 200 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 55.3W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I don't think ERnesto will be 1938 or 1944 Part Deux for Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 I don't think ERnesto will be 1938 or 1944 Part Deux for Long Island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 5 PM Upgraded to Tropical Storm Ernesto 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012 500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012 CORRECTED TO CHANGE DEPRESSION TO STORM IN DISCUSSION SECTION ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM SHOULD BE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURF...LARGE WAVES GENERATED BY ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 This one is a fighter. It's really low in latitude and continuously firing convection. All its gonna need is the bath water in the carribean/gulf and favorable upper levels to explode. Im still waiting for the euro and gfs to get a better handle on it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 8/3 - 8 AM - Tropical Storm Ernesto LOCATION 13.5 N 61.5 W.. Movement West at 24 mph also 2 other areas to watch - one near the bahamas and the other south of the cape verde islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Ernesto really getting that look of a strengthening system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 @RyanMaue: GFDL 00z races Ernesto into southern Gulf as a major/monster hurricane. http://t.co/ASRCatGq http://t.co/2JvHNGyZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 7, 2012 Share Posted August 7, 2012 Invest 92L we now have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Florence (remnants) just keep on keeping on! The shear in the mdr is killing us. Strange because we are close to enso neutral. If we can get it to calm down in the next 2 weeks we should be set for peak season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 With a developing persistent NE trough, prospects for a tropical impact for the Northeast look very small for the foreseeable future into the end of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 With a developing persistent NE trough, prospects for a tropical impact for the Northeast look very small for the foreseeable future into the end of August. Sounds good to me... While tracking Irene was fun last summer, the end result was rather upsetting.. It ruined one of the last few weekends of the summer. Plus, it just ended up being a big old mess.. No real crazy damage.. Just run of the milll crap.. The whole hurricane thing up here in this part of the country is cool, but it's just not worth it.. It messes everything up and what you end up with is a weakening storm as it approaches with several peeps on here going- "i think it's going to strengthen as it approaches the gulf stream.." The bottom line is that a hurricane up here just doesn't happen very often and rarely (if ever) does it come in at an angle that would make it "meteorologically" interesting for the NYC area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 13, 2012 Share Posted August 13, 2012 We shall see, never say never. I just hope the tropics get active to simply track anything it's been so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 14, 2012 Share Posted August 14, 2012 Sounds good to me... While tracking Irene was fun last summer, the end result was rather upsetting.. It ruined one of the last few weekends of the summer. Plus, it just ended up being a big old mess.. No real crazy damage.. Just run of the milll crap.. The whole hurricane thing up here in this part of the country is cool, but it's just not worth it.. It messes everything up and what you end up with is a weakening storm as it approaches with several peeps on here going- "i think it's going to strengthen as it approaches the gulf stream.." The bottom line is that a hurricane up here just doesn't happen very often and rarely (if ever) does it come in at an angle that would make it "meteorologically" interesting for the NYC area.. Irene may have not been the armageddon some were fearing, but it was much more than just a nuisance event, and it was hardly a bust for most places. Widespread tree damage, over 1.5 million homes and businesses losing power in NJ alone with many places being without power for several days to even weeks, a storm surge on LI on par with the December 1992 nor'easter, destructive river flooding throughout northern and central NJ, etc. It was the worst flooding and probably the strongest winds that I've ever witnessed. Hardly run of the mill and certainly meteorologically interesting. I'd take another event like that in a heartbeat. I'm not sure what your expectations are, but if they're for a Cat 2 or 3 storm hitting our area directly, then you will almost always be disappointed. This is the northeastern U.S., not the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted August 16, 2012 Share Posted August 16, 2012 I could do without the damage that's for sure. Tree on my house that we couldn't get removed for two weeks because all the tree guys were busy, power out for five days and the basement flooded for the second time in a month. It took me about six weeks to clean up and then the Oct snowstorm brought down seven more trees that had been weakened in Irene. I'm still dealing with the remnants from that. If we don't have a good tropical storm until next year I'm fine with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Keep an eye on the new invest that just pushed off Africa. The environment is conducive for slow steady strengthening and as usual the globals are all over the place, but the overall trend is that things could be interesting over the next week or two. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean had this making it 70W before recuriving. The GFS is more "Andrew Esque" in terms of track with a bend back towards the WNW just NE of Puerto Rico. Just something to keep an eye on in what has been a rather slow tropical season this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Buoy South of Islip now right about 26º, and one of the 12Z GFS ensemble members hits or barely misses Eastern Long Island with a sub 984 mb storm from 94L (Time steps make it impossible to tell if it actually hits). 12Z ensemble trend is your friend. 94L recurve coming later and later as compared to earlier ensemble runs. 94L may be NYC subforums chance at a storm this year, and perhaps a storm on par w/ Gloria. Awfully early, low confidence, but I'm a natural optimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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