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May 4th - 16th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Cell NNW of Laredo really tightening its rotation.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX

643 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SOUTHWESTERN MCMULLEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

EAST CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EAST

CENTRAL WEBB COUNTY...OR 16 MILES WEST OF FREER...MOVING EAST AT

15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

RURAL NORTHWESTERN DUVAL COUNTY...

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...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR

SOUTHEASTERN MCMULLEN...SOUTHERN LIVE OAK...NORTHWESTERN JIM WELLS

AND NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES...

AT 721 PM CDT...A STORM CHASER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND

AROUND 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEGG...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF

FREER...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

RANCHO DE LA PARITA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS

STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE

IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0718 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH/CENTRAL TX EWD TO THE

LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 110018Z - 110115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 01Z...WHICH

WOULD REPLACE PORTIONS OF BOTH TORNADO WATCH 271 AND SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM WATCH 272...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE

TRACKING EWD INVOF A QUASI-STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING

FROM WEBB COUNTY EWD TOWARD LIVE OAK COUNTY AND NEWD INTO VICTORIA

COUNTY...WITH THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX

COAST BY LATE EVENING.

ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC

ASCENT NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AS SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY

ADVANCES NWD NEAR AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEBB TO

NUECES COUNTIES...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME

SFC-BASED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHILE MORE ISOLATED SFC-BASED

CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- E.G. SUPERCELL

APPROACHING ZAPATA COUNTY FROM THE WEST.

LARGE HAIL -- POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE

THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THE STORMS...AS 00Z CORPUS

CHRISTI/BROWNSVILLE RAOBS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF STRONG

INSTABILITY. ALSO...AS BELOW-1-KM-AGL FLOW MAINTAINS AN ELY

COMPONENT BENEATH MODERATE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...EFFECTIVE SRH

VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-300 M2/S2 -- HIGHEST INVOF THE

AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES -- WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO

THREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

HOWEVER...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AMIDST THE RICH LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE...INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN

EVOLUTION TOWARD ONE OR MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE

SYSTEMS...WITH AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE

LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE LOWER/MIDDLE

TX COAST.

..COHEN/CARBIN.. 05/11/2012

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see more hope in the long range last few runs of gfs/euro

tho something tells me this whole crap period won't end up the total disaster it appeared. this event today sorta ramped up under 24 hrs.

Finally seeing some consistent signs of the ridge being shunted east/flattened a bit.

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Finally seeing some consistent signs of the ridge being shunted east/flattened a bit.

the trough next week looks like it may end up having enough moisture around .. 60s dew make it to the n plains on some runs. after that total wild guess but hints are there and an EC ridge almost never fails near memorial day.. almost always the first real heat wave somewhere around then. that's speculation of course. but... maybe season cancel cancel?

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Yeah, it looks frickin' nasty outside right now... I'm technologically challenged, but I posted a picture to my facebook. It's normally light here until about 9-930 and the sky is completely black, lightening going like crazy and can hear thunder loud in the distance. I don't think there is any sirens here at all, because we had a tornado pretty close to my house about a month or so ago and never heard any sirens or anything. Should be interesting.

After this little bit I should be done though, right?

Probably right now

Looks like some very heavy rain and possible hail with this cell.

sa.png

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Yeah, it looks frickin' nasty outside right now... I'm technologically challenged, but I posted a picture to my facebook. It's normally light here until about 9-930 and the sky is completely black, lightening going like crazy and can hear thunder loud in the distance. I don't think there is any sirens here at all, because we had a tornado pretty close to my house about a month or so ago and never heard any sirens or anything. Should be interesting.

After this little bit I should be done though, right?

There looks to be an area of very heavy rain after that, but the occasional hail/wind/lightning threat can't be ruled out with some of the embedded cells.

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http://www.click2hou...hz/-/index.html

The National Weather Service said the tornado briefly touched down at Weimar High School, 506 West Main Street, at about 5:25 p.m.

School district officials said some injuries were reported. There was a fundraiser going on at the school at the time of the storm.

A scoreboard at the high school was damaged, NWS officials said.

NWS officials said a train was derailed in Weimar.

According to the Fayette County Sheriff's Office, a tornado peeled back the roof of Colorado-Fayette Medical Center, 400 Youens Drive. No injuries were reported there, but the 10 patients there were transferred to Columbus Community Hospital or discharged.

Weimar is about 88 miles west of downtown Houston.

Weimar-Train-Derail-1-jpg.jpg

KHOU has clearer picture. The 8 injured were outside during a fundraiser, none of the injuries are life threatening.

trainsderailed.jpg

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