OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Do you think here in YYZ we have a shot at something decent. EC is already saying nothing for us. Yes, I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Yes, I do. Are dynamics looking decent for heavy snow i.e thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 15z sref snowfall accumulation map looks good for the BUF metro area. 8-12" http://oi43.tinypic.com/2evu4cy.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Are dynamics looking decent for heavy snow i.e thundersnow tough to forecast but there is convective instability present at 18z Monday as the equivalent potential temperature fields fold over near 12K ft on NAM BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I don't have the charts in front of me...but any similarities to Nov. 1950? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This looks like it will be an incredible storm for W NY down through W PA and into WV. A long duration, heavy wet snowstorm looks probable for many. Although I say heavy and wet, don't be surprised if the snow actually becomes drier and fluffier, especially above 1,000 feet or so in elevation as the storm progresses. That's what happened here in the highlands of W MA in the October storm. The snow started out heavy and wet here early on in that event before we dropped to about 29-30° F for the main part of it. The atmospheric column was so cold above that we actually had dry, fluffy (15:1 ratios) snow (relatively speaking, of course) that added up really quickly to 2 feet here, and over 30" in the highest spots just to my northeast. The lower elevations had a heavy wet paste that caused considerable tree damage, while we mostly avoided it thanks to the snow being drier. Granted the mid-levels were a little warmer to my east in that event too, but it was mostly the lower level warmth with temperatures around 33-34° F. There's a big difference in the consistency of the snow at 33° F vs. 30° F. Sometimes these TROWAL, deformation features can produce a colder, dryer snow in early or late season storms like this, especially in the higher elevations. As such, this may become like a mid-winter blizzard above 1,500' or so with temps dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The lower elevations will not only see a wetter snow, they are more leafed out as well. That said, I would expect the worst of the tree damage to be in the lower spots, not the higher spots, similar to what happened here in W MA last October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This looks like it will be an incredible storm for W NY down through W PA and into WV. A long duration, heavy wet snowstorm looks probable for many. Although I say heavy and wet, don't be surprised if the snow actually becomes drier and fluffier, especially above 1,000 feet or so in elevation as the storm progresses. That's what happened here in the highlands of W MA in the October storm. The snow started out heavy and wet here early on in that event before we dropped to about 29-30° F for the main part of it. The atmospheric column was so cold above that we actually had dry, fluffy (15:1 ratios) snow (relatively speaking, of course) that added up really quickly to 2 feet here, and over 30" in the highest spots just to my northeast. The lower elevations had a heavy wet paste that caused considerable tree damage, while we mostly avoided it thanks to the snow being drier. Granted the mid-levels were a little warmer to my east in that event too, but it was mostly the lower level warmth with temperatures around 33-34° F. There's a big difference in the consistency of the snow at 33° F vs. 30° F. Sometimes these TROWAL, deformation features can produce a colder, dryer snow in early or late season storms like this, especially in the higher elevations. As such, this may become like a mid-winter blizzard above 1,500' or so with temps dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The lower elevations will not only see a wetter snow, they are more leafed out as well. That said, I would expect the worst of the tree damage to be in the lower spots, not the higher spots, similar to what happened here in W MA last October. ": we saw this to some degree in the october 2006 LES snowstorm, mitch. The snow was 6:1 in the afternoon and the evening and it transitioned to a 12:1 snow in the late evening through the early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 This looks like it will be an incredible storm for W NY down through W PA and into WV. A long duration, heavy wet snowstorm looks probable for many. Although I say heavy and wet, don't be surprised if the snow actually becomes drier and fluffier, especially above 1,000 feet or so in elevation as the storm progresses. That's what happened here in the highlands of W MA in the October storm. The snow started out heavy and wet here early on in that event before we dropped to about 29-30° F for the main part of it. The atmospheric column was so cold above that we actually had dry, fluffy (15:1 ratios) snow (relatively speaking, of course) that added up really quickly to 2 feet here, and over 30" in the highest spots just to my northeast. The lower elevations had a heavy wet paste that caused considerable tree damage, while we mostly avoided it thanks to the snow being drier. Granted the mid-levels were a little warmer to my east in that event too, but it was mostly the lower level warmth with temperatures around 33-34° F. There's a big difference in the consistency of the snow at 33° F vs. 30° F. Sometimes these TROWAL, deformation features can produce a colder, dryer snow in early or late season storms like this, especially in the higher elevations. As such, this may become like a mid-winter blizzard above 1,500' or so with temps dropping into the mid to upper 20s. The lower elevations will not only see a wetter snow, they are more leafed out as well. That said, I would expect the worst of the tree damage to be in the lower spots, not the higher spots, similar to what happened here in W MA last October. Would you include Southern Ontario in this as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Would you include Southern Ontario in this as well? My guess is that you'll see something, but I think the big stuff is going to be south of Buffalo and down into W PA and WV. It's hard to say what you'll get. It will depend on your elevation and the placement of the mid-level deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Would be lying if I said I wasn't jealous Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 18z Monday temperatures. Snow is just starting to establish itself back towards Toronto and Buffalo. Pretty impressive to see temperatures around 30° for 2pm in the afternoon in late April! By 0z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 18z GFS crushes BUF http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/18/gfs_namer_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 New 00z NAM absolutley obliterates BUF. wow!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/00/nam_namer_036_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Buffalo's biggest storm of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Jealous of you guys out west. Normally I don't get excited for late season storms...but this thing is gonna bury some folks! Will be fun to watch it unfold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 i'd take the 21z srefs over the 00z NAM....NAM would be a really hardcore blitz for 3-6 hours...but then BUF would dry slot....might still be snow..but wouldn't accumulate all that much after 15 or 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 i'd take the 21z srefs over the 00z NAM....NAM would be a really hardcore blitz for 3-6 hours...but then BUF would dry slot....might still be snow..but wouldn't accumulate all that much after 15 or 18z. Do you think the NAM is overdoing the dryslot for BUF and YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Do you think the NAM is overdoing the dryslot for BUF and YYZ? probably...it's the furthest west of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 probably...it's the furthest west of all the models. Do you know how much snow snow the EURO gives YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Do you know how much snow snow the EURO gives YYZ? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Click on model data and then change the model to the ECMWF. You can check out the weenie snow maps if you wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Wow, BUF has put in "Heavy Snow" for the grids for Monday in the western part of its CWA! GFS, just a touch lighter with the moisture compared to the 18z run. NAM probably the wettest model, but that's typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Anyone still up with any idea what the Euro showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 Things look on track. For those that live in western NY especially SW high terrain and western PA..enjoy this. This will be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 I don't know how leafed out the trees are over there, but just from experience....4-5" of snow here caused a lot of damage back in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 I don't know how leafed out the trees are over there, but just from experience....4-5" of snow here caused a lot of damage back in October. SFC temps and elevation will be critical...like wxmanmitch said, big difference between 33F and 30F. Parts of SNE saw catestrophic damage from 4-6", while others saw no damage from 15-30". If you can dynamically cool to like 30-31F after 1/2" QPF at 6:1 you may be alright if the rest of the storm is 8-10:1 at 29-30F. I think the fact that a lot of it falls during the day tomorrow doesn't bode well for power because that weak solar effect may keep temps at 31-33F instead of if it were at night slipping down to 29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The thing that may save areas is that I can't imagine leaf out in the terrain is up to full warm season levels...and where it is up to full summer-like leaf out, I still think there's something to the idea that trees are a lot more hearty this time of year. I'm not saying tree damage can't be horrific but I think it's worse in fall snowstorms than in the spring. Tamarack in the New England threads (forestry expert) sort of backed this up by saying the in the fall the trees are shutting down and drying out making them more brittle and easier to snap. In the spring they are fresh with sap and nutrients running full tilt through the branches and generally stronger than they would be at say Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 SFC temps and elevation will be critical...like wxmanmitch said, big difference between 33F and 30F. Parts of SNE saw catestrophic damage from 4-6", while others saw no damage from 15-30". If you can dynamically cool to like 30-31F after 1/2" QPF at 6:1 you may be alright if the rest of the storm is 8-10:1 at 29-30F. I think the fact that a lot of it falls during the day tomorrow doesn't bode well for power because that weak solar effect may keep temps at 31-33F instead of if it were at night slipping down to 29F. Yeah there will be a difference between like 2K where it may be a drier snow, and areas between 700-1500ft or so. Low elevations like BUF seems to be a concern..and possible State College as well. It's also going to depend on where that band sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Yeah there will be a difference between like 2K where it may be a drier snow, and areas between 700-1500ft or so. Low elevations like BUF seems to be a concern..and possible State College as well. It's also going to depend on where that band sets up. Agreed...and of course the lower elevations where the snow will be wetter, there are more leaves on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 BUF changed the watch to a warning for the western most southerntier. left the watch up for the Niagara frontier for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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