OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 It's only a matter of time before our stretch of snowy Decembers comes to an end and March becomes a bit more wintry. Notice that our trend of snowy Decembers and lack of snow in March started at the same time. This isn't a coincidence. ...um December 2011 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Yeah, but of course they are having a field day with all this. Not really from what I've seen. I haven't seen anybody in the climate forum or any other source claim the heatwave was primarily caused by AGW. I have seen people claim that AGW likely contributes to the severity of these heatwaves, which is true. Globally, heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and severity. This is just one more data point in that phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 At least you have 1000' of elevation on your side, blizz. Imagine living at under 100' ft ele? Pretty soon winter will only be jan and feb there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 ...um December 2011 ... I wasn't referring to this year as both December and March were fails for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Not really from what I've seen. I haven't seen anybody in the climate forum or any other source claim the heatwave was primarily caused by AGW. I have seen people claim that AGW likely contributes to the severity of these heatwaves, which is true. Globally, heatwaves have been increasing in frequency and severity. This is just one more data point in that phenomenon. Jeff Masters and several other agenda driven people think otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/09/us/weather-record-warm-march/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Jeff Masters and several other agenda driven people think otherwise. Although it's possible the intensity of the heat wave was at least partially attributable to AGW. Can't say with certainty but I think that's at least part of what Jeff Masters and others were getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 What are you going to do when December sucks? Pray for one helluva January like last year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 http://www.cnn.com/2....html?hpt=hp_t2 Perfect summary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Although it's possible the intensity of the heat wave was at least partially attributable to AGW. Can't say with certainty but I think that's at least part of what Jeff Masters and others were getting at. The problem I have is how people are using these records and trying to sell us with confidence that this has the smell of AGW. If you look at global temps, we are in a sea of warmth compared to everyone else. When I see that, it affirms how this was in large a product of a significant feedback process of no snow and dry soils. That adds up to a ridiculous warm spell..especially considering the combo of no leaf out, dry soils, increasing sun angle, and little to no snowpack compared to normal. March is probably the month where you would expect the greatest impact of these combinations. I have no problem with a warming planet in the last 100 years. No doubt it has. But, I do have a problem with people trying to relate this to AGW and think they can do this with confidence. I just don't see how you can do that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 lolz Climate has no clue when February "ends" and March "begins". This is pretty much the dumbest convo ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 lolz Climate has no clue when February "ends" and March "begins". This is pretty much the dumbest convo ever. I don't think that's what people are saying...skierinvermont and I were discussing this earlier, and we agreed that the approximately 1C of warming in the last century (more at higher latitudes like ours) is enough to have shaved about one week of winter weather off of either end of the season. This is not something that's particularly noticeable in the span of most of our young lives, but there is some degree of truth to the fact that winter is starting later and ending earlier, on average. Of course, most of the variance in March in the past few years is due to chance, but the faster retreating snowpack to the north may be having some effect, just as the lower arctic sea ice may be having some effect on the warmer falls we've been experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 ^ Right, and I'm not disagrering with that. I just think Kevin's blanket "March is spring" statement is rediculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I don't think that's what people are saying...skierinvermont and I were discussing this earlier, and we agreed that the approximately 1C of warming in the last century (more at higher latitudes like ours) is enough to have shaved about one week of winter weather off of either end of the season. This is not something that's particularly noticeable in the span of most of our young lives, but there is some degree of truth to the fact that winter is starting later and ending earlier, on average. Of course, most of the variance in March in the past few years is due to chance, but the faster retreating snowpack to the north may be having some effect, just as the lower arctic sea ice may be having some effect on the warmer falls we've been experiencing. The thing is that warming isn't equal on all parts of the globe. Our weather in the mid-latitudes is much more sensative to decadal oscillations than other areas....and when talking with respect to snowfall in New England, the temperatures matter even less than further south. Claiming a "drought" in March snowfall is attributable to anything other than random variance is pretty silly when talking on a time scale of our life times. Our worst November and December snow cover in North America is in the late 70s and early 80s. That doesn't match the theory that snow would be less. Temperatures were colder back then, but snow certainly wasn't greater in the early season. Its been less very recently late in the season, but we've gone through these stretches many times in the past. March will once again have some blockbuster snow months in New England in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 The thing is that warming isn't equal on all parts of the globe. Our weather in the mid-latitudes is much more sensative to decadal oscillations than other areas....and when talking with respect to snowfall in New England, the temperatures matter even less than further south. Claiming a "drought" in March snowfall is attributable to anything other than random variance is pretty silly when talking on a time scale of our life times. Our worst November and December snow cover in North America is in the late 70s and early 80s. That doesn't match the theory that snow would be less. Temperatures were colder back then, but snow certainly wasn't greater in the early season. Its been less very recently late in the season, but we've gone through these stretches many times in the past. March will once again have some blockbuster snow months in New England in the future. North America (and particularly northern areas of the continent) have warmed more than the global average, however. According to the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, New England winters warmed 1.3F/decade from 1970-2000, which is far more than the amount global temperatures have increased in the last century. If winter temperatures have warmed approximately 5F since their nadir in the cold 1960s and 1970s, that means that winter is ending approximately 2 weeks earlier (since around the equinox, averages go up around 2F per week or so in most places). This indicates that normal climate on March 15th today is what it was like on March 30th in the 1960s, and we all know the chance of major snowfalls decreases dramatically in the second half of March. Of course, this doesn't preclude a March like 1958, 1960, or 1967 but it does make it much more unlikely, since the latter half of the month needs to produce snowstorms in what is essentially an April climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 North America (and particularly northern areas of the continent) have warmed more than the global average, however. According to the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment, New England winters warmed 1.3F/decade from 1970-2000, which is far more than the amount global temperatures have increased in the last century. If winter temperatures have warmed approximately 5F since their nadir in the cold 1960s and 1970s, that means that winter is ending approximately 2 weeks earlier (since around the equinox, averages go up around 2F per week or so in most places). This indicates that normal climate on March 15th today is what it was like on March 30th in the 1960s, and we all know the chance of major snowfalls decreases dramatically in the second half of March. Of course, this doesn't preclude a March like 1958, 1960, or 1967 but it does make it much more unlikely, since the latter half of the month needs to produce snowstorms in what is essentially an April climate. You are comparing it to the tail end of a decadal minimum...and the peak of one when you mention the 1960s. The mid 40s to the mid 50s were warmer than the '71-'00 Marches here. I'll respectively disagree with you. And again we aren't necessarily talking only temps here...we are talking snowfall, and you have no evidence of any trend that is meaningful outside of decadal oscillations or random variance on the scale of our life times. If you want to compare it to the end of the LIA, be my guest, but that is not how this discussion started...it started on the ridiculous proclimation that less snowy Marches are a permanent feature compared to the 1990s and early 2000s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 march left me with GREAT unbelievable memories hell laying out by a pool in N CONWAY in mid march .....outside in low 80's two days in a row.....just wow. concord,nh 5 straight days of 80 . I have no problem with a warming planet in the last 100 years. No doubt it has. But, I do have a problem with people trying to relate this to AGW and think they can do this with confidence. I just don't see how you can do that right now. very intelligent people are still sometimes emotional and if they emotionaly tied to a "good cause" like saving the enviornment...then MMGW is too big of a issue to not have on your side....and then well the rest is ......politically driven w the help of think tanks IMO. sure i don't have an argument against the planet being warmer in the last 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Depends on which year one looks at March. Only one location, and that unofficial, but here's a log of March for selected years IMBY (you may notice a pattern): 1999: 32.2", storms of 14.5", 14". 2001: 55.5"! post-equinox storms of 16", 19". Low of -25, winter's coldest. 2003: Low of -23. 2005: 31.1", storms of 11", 11.5". Low of -19. 2007: Low of -23, winter's coldest. A few days earlier, aft. high of -2 (in March!) 2009: Low of -17. 2011: Low of -22, winter's coldest. (Don't ask about the even-numberd years...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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