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Our region's extreme run

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All stats for DCA

Temperatures:

5th warmest April (2010)

2nd warmest Spring (2010)

Warmest and 3rd warmest June (2010 & 2011)

Warmest month and warmest July (2011), 2nd warmest July and 2nd warmest month (2012), 3rd warmest July and T-3nd warmest month (2010)

Warmest and second warmest Summer (2010 & 2011)

4th warmest September (2010)

4th warmest Autumn (2010)

3rd warmest Winter (2011-12)

4th warmest Year (2011)

T-5th warmest Year (2010)

Warmest March (2012)

Warmest Jan-Mar (2012)

Warmest Jan-Jun (2012)

Snow:

Snowiest December (2009)

2nd snowiest Month and 2nd snowiest February (2010)

Snowiest Winter (2009-10)

3rd least snowy Winter (2011-12)

Precipitation:

Driest February (2009)

5th driest July (2009)

5th wettest Sept (2011)

2nd wettest Dec (2009)

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5th wettest Sept (2011)

I would throw in 10th wettest August (2011), which when combined with September 2011, produced the third wettest August-September.

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Heat records at BWI since March 2010:

Daily records:

1 record high broken and 1 tied in April 2010

3 record highs broken and 1 tied in June 2010

4 record highs broken in July 2010

1 record high tied in September 2010

1 record high broken in March 2011

1 record high broken and 1 tied in April 2011

1 record high broken and 1 tied in May 2011

3 record highs broken in June 2011

2 record highs broken and 1 tied in July 2011

1 record high broken in December 2011

1 record high tied in April 2012

1 record high tied in June 2012

1 record high tied and 2 broken in July 2012 (1 replaced a record originally broken in July 2010)

2 record high minimums broken in May 2010

2 record high minimums tied in June 2010

1 record high minimum broken in July 2010

1 record high minimum broken and 1 tied in October 2010

1 record high minimum broken in February 2011

1 record high minimum broken in April 2011

1 record high minimum tied in July 2011

1 record high minimum broken in December 2011

1 record high minimum tied in February 2012

1 record high minimum broken and 1 tied in March 2012

1 record high minimum broken in July 2012

1 record high minimum tied in September 2012

106 degrees on 7/22/11- hottest ever recorded at BWI location

Monthly records

2nd hottest June (2010)

Tied for 2nd hottest July (2010)

Hottest July ever (2011)

Hottest month ever (July 2011)

Most number of 90+ degree days (24) in any month (July 2011)

3rd hottest March (2012)

Tied for 7th hottest May (2012)

Tied for 5th hottest July (2012)

Seasonal records

6th hottest spring (2010)

Hottest summer ever (2010)

9th hottest summer (2011)

7th hottest winter (2011-2012)

Hottest spring ever (2012)

Yearly/long-term records:

Most number of 90+ degree days (59) in one year (2010)

Tied for 1st, most number of 100+ degree days (7) in one year (2010)

Hottest January 1 - March 31 ever (2012)

Hottest January 1- May 31 ever (2012)

Hottest first half of year ever (2012)

Hottest January 1 - July 31 ever (2012)

Hottest January 1 - August 31 ever (2012)

Hottest January 1 - September 30 ever (2012)

Hottest spring/summer ever (2010)

2nd hottest spring/summer (2012)

9th hottest spring/summer (2011)

21 straight months of above average temperatures (Feb. 2011 - Oct. 2012)

30 of the last 32 months (from March 2010 onwards) had above average temperatures

EDITED 11/1/12

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Good work with the stats. I'd be interested how locations removed from urban heat islands stack up with the same stats. Breaking warmth records seems easy in DC nowadays but I wonder if the data is skewed a bit by the heat island effect.

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Some precip records for BWI:

Wettest September ever 13.32" in 2011.

August-September 2011- first ever back-to-back months with double-digit precip totals.

9/30/10 - 6.02 inches of rain, setting a daily and monthly record. This was also the 2nd wettest day recorded in BWI ever.

I'll leave the snow records (or lack thereof) to someone else, they're easy pickings :-)

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I think we're going to be breaking lots of heat records this spring and summer yet again, so I'll be updating them all by editing my heat post above, rathering than cluttering the forum with new posts every time.

Also, I have a feeling that this is one of the top five warmest astronomical winter periods ever for BWI- does anyone know where it ranks?

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I still believe recent trends speak for themselves we have moved into a warmer period.

We've had 3 discernible warm periods that have lasted 3 yrs plus. 1930-33, 1973-1975, 2006-2008

Presumably 2010-2012 will be the 4th. 5 years is tough and we do our biggest cold anomalies in November through April. So assuming this next winter sucks and 2013 is warm, there is strong evidence based on a number of factors that 2013-14 will be cold and probably snowy. That is the way I would lean. 2012-13 will probably be a 3rd year nina or neutral negative and will be warm.

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We've had 3 discernible warm periods that have lasted 3 yrs plus. 1930-33, 1973-1975, 2006-2008

Presumably 2010-2012 will be the 4th. 5 years is tough and we do our biggest cold anomalies in November through April. So assuming this next winter sucks and 2013 is warm, there is strong evidence based on a number of factors that 2013-14 will be cold and probably snowy. That is the way I would lean. 2012-13 will probably be a 3rd year nina or neutral negative and will be warm.

I agree alot with this. Cycles within cycles are predictable to some extent. 2009 was a much colder than normal year in the areas that are seeing extreme warmth (northern plains). It was colder than normal here too. Especially during the summer & winter.

It's interesting when you start looking at anomalies for entire years. It's hard to get big annual anoms closer to the coasts. Oceans are big temp equalizers.

There a decent argument for a sucky winter next year for alot of reasons. Doubtful that it will be as sucky as this past one though. We got overwhelmed by the anti-block and uncooperative ao. And there is also a decent argument for a cooler than normal year overall in 13-14 with a decent winter. We'll see though. IF we had a cold winter next year it wouldn't shock me at all but it does look like we have to get lucky for that to happen.

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I agree alot with this. Cycles within cycles are predictable to some extent. 2009 was a much colder than normal year in the areas that are seeing extreme warmth (northern plains). It was colder than normal here too. Especially during the summer & winter.

It's interesting when you start looking at anomalies for entire years. It's hard to get big annual anoms closer to the coasts. Oceans are big temp equalizers.

There a decent argument for a sucky winter next year for alot of reasons. Doubtful that it will be as sucky as this past one though. We got overwhelmed by the anti-block and uncooperative ao. And there is also a decent argument for a cooler than normal year overall in 13-14 with a decent winter. We'll see though. IF we had a cold winter next year it wouldn't shock me at all but it does look like we have to get lucky for that to happen.

If we get an el nino we and it's weak or moderate we'll be good with snow I believe, but temps may still be a problem.

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Also, I have a feeling that this is one of the top five warmest astronomical winter periods ever for BWI- does anyone know where it ranks?

I don't have Baltimore data, but regarding DC, I stated on this thread -- http://www.americanw...h-on-record-dca -- "We are also locked in to the warmest astronomical winter (approximately December 21st to March 20th each season) and the warmest composite meteorological/astronomical winter (December 1st to March 20th each season). Each of these two measures of winter currently (through March 13th) show average temperatures of 44.4 degrees in DC, versus the previous astronomical winter record of 43.7 in 1989-90 and the previous composite winter record of 44.0 in 2001-02"

The final figures in DC for both the 2011/12 astronomical and composite winters will be at least a degree higher than they were through March 13th -- I'll post them later today or early tomorrow on the above thread. Given by how much the DC records are going to be broken, I think it's pretty certain that the corresponding Baltimore records will also be broken.

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I do not.

So you mean you don't ascribe to the belief that a warm winter and spring means the following summer will be hotter than normal? Which means the following winter will be warmer than normal, which means the following spring will be warmer than normal, which means...

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If we get an el nino we and it's weak or moderate we'll be good with snow I believe, but temps may still be a problem.

I think our fate will lie more with the state of the ao/nao vs enso. Even nino's following multi-year ninas don't show alot of promise. Nothing terrible or anything but not exciting either.

There is absolutely not reason to think we can't have negative ao/nao biased winter next year but there will prob be little indication of what's going to happen until thanksgiving.

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So you mean you don't ascribe to the belief that a warm winter and spring means the following summer will be hotter than normal? Which means the following winter will be warmer than normal, which means the following spring will be warmer than normal, which means...

Word, by my calculations, by 2017 we will be as hot as the surface of the sun around here.

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Added warmest March on record.

And at least a dozen more somewhat obscure high average temperature records -- for the 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 months ending in March 2012, as well as the warmest 12 consecutive months irrespective of ending month. I believe that the March 2012 number is now finalized at 56.7 degrees, beating the 1945 record by 0.5 degrees. Additionally: February-March 2012 averaged 50.5* degrees, beating the 1976 record by 1.4; January-March 2012 averaged 47.2 degrees, beating the 1990 record by 0.9; December 2011-March 2012 averaged 46.7 degrees, beating the 2001/2002 record by 2.3; November 2011-March 2012 averaged 47.8 degrees, beating the 2001/2002 record by 1.4; October 2011-March 2012 averaged 49.6 degrees, beating the 2001/2002 record by 0.9; September 2011-March 2012 averaged 52.7 degrees, beating the 1931/1932 record by 0.8; August 2011-March 2012 averaged 56.1 degrees, beating the 1973/1974 record by 0.8; July 2011-March 2012 averaged 59.3 degrees, beating the 1973/1974 record by 1.4; June 2011-March 2012 averaged 61.2 degrees, beating the 1973/1974 record by 1.3; May 2011-March 2012 averaged 61.9 degrees, beating the 2007/2008 record by 1.5; and April 2011-March 2012 averaged 61.6 degrees, beating the 1980/1981 record by 1.7. The last record is particularly noteworthy, because it is also the highest temperature for any 12-month period in DC history, beating the October 1990-September 1991 record by 0.8. Of course, this new 12-month record may be short-lived, if the April 2012 average temperature exceeds the April 2011 average of 58.8 degrees.

* Averages for more than one month (such as December, January, and February -- the three months of meteorological winter) have traditionally been calculated by assuming that each month has the same number of days, even though that method is slightly inaccurate because the months differ in length. For example, to calculate a true February-March 2012 average, the average temperature for each of those 60 days (29 in February and 31 in March) should be summed and divided by 60, rather than simply adding the average February temperature to the average March temperature and dividing by two. The true average for February-March 2012 is 50.8, rather than 50.5, but for consistency with traditional calculations, I have used the simpler method. Either way you do the calculations, all the above records were broken.

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Added warmest March on record.

An amazing record.

March 2012's mean temperature of 56.8° demolished the old record of 55.5° set in 1921 and tied in 1945. It was also almost 3.9 standard deviations above the 1981-2010 mean temperature for March. 3.9 standard deviation events have a statistical probability of occurring once every nearly 850 years (for any month).

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And at least a dozen more somewhat obscure high average temperature records -- for the 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 months ending in March 2012, as well as the warmest 12 consecutive months irrespective of ending month. I believe that the March 2012 number is now finalized at 56.8 degrees, beating the 1945 record by 0.6 degrees. Additionally: February-March 2012 averaged 50.6* degrees, beating the 1976 record by 1.5; January-March 2012 averaged 47.3 degrees, beating the 1990 record by 1.0; December 2011-March 2012 averaged 46.7 degrees, beating the 2001/2002 record by 2.3; November 2011-March 2012 averaged 47.9 degrees, beating the 2001/2002 record by 1.5; October 2011-March 2012 averaged 49.6 degrees, beating the 2001/2002 record by 0.9; September 2011-March 2012 averaged 52.7 degrees, beating the 1931/1932 record by 0.8; August 2011-March 2012 averaged 56.1 degrees, beating the 1973/1974 record by 0.8; July 2011-March 2012 averaged 59.3 degrees, beating the 1973/1974 record by 1.4; June 2011-March 2012 averaged 61.2 degrees, beating the 1973/1974 record by 1.3; May 2011-March 2012 averaged 61.9 degrees, beating the 2007/2008 record by 1.5; and April 2011-March 2012 averaged 61.6 degrees, beating the 1980/1981 record by 1.7. The last record is particularly noteworthy, because it is also the highest temperature for any 12-month period in DC history, beating the October 1990-September 1991 record by 0.8. Of course, this new 12-month record may be short-lived, if the April 2012 average temperature exceeds the April 2011 average of 58.8 degrees.

* Averages for more than one month (such as December, January, and February -- the three months of meteorological winter) have traditionally been calculated by assuming that each month has the same number of days, even though that method is slightly inaccurate because the months differ in length. For example, to calculate a true February-March 2012 average, the average temperature for each of those 60 days (29 in February and 31 in March) should be summed and divided by 60, rather than simply adding the average February temperature to the average March temperature and dividing by two. The true average for February-March 2012 is 50.8, rather than 50.6, but for consistency with traditional calculations, I have used the simpler method. Either way you do the calculations, all the above records were broken.

Correcting (in bold) a few figures above, as March finished at 56.8, and not 56.7.

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An amazing record.

March 2012's mean temperature of 56.8° demolished the old record of 55.5° set in 1921 and tied in 1945. It was also almost 3.9 standard deviations above the 1981-2010 mean temperature for March. 3.9 standard deviation events have a statistical probability of occurring once every nearly 330 years.

I think a while back NOAA corrected the March 1945 average to 56.2, but we still broke the record.

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Wouldn't it be special if either BWI, DCA, or LWX set a record for the earliest

100 degree record in modern times this year?

DCA and BWI, June 05, 1925.

That's a good one (although I don't think those airports existed then -- the temperatures were for the official measuring points in DC and Baltimore). I remember May 31,1991, when we almost broke the DC record for the earliest 100 degree reading, but came up a degree short.

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Added warmest Jan-Mar

2012: 47.3

1990: 46.3

1998: 44.4

Almost a clear 3 degrees above 3rd place. If we are merely average for the remainder of the year, we will have a top-5 warmest year at DCA. +0.7 the rest of the way makes 2012 the king. That is how warm it has been. :o

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It's also worth noting that March 2012 was the third largest temperature anomaly relative to monthly historical DC averages, which date to 1871. The champ is still January 1950, which at 48.0 degrees was 12.8 degrees above the 1871-2012 January average of 35.2 degrees. Second is still February 1934, which at 24.6 degrees was 12.3 degrees below the 1871-2012 February average of 36.9 degrees. March 2012 checked in at 56.8 degrees, or 11.8 degrees above the 1871-2012 March average of 45.0 degrees. In doing so, it displaced January 1932 as third on the all-time list. January 1932 averaged 46.8 degrees, or 11.6 degrees above the 1871-2012 January average of 35.2 degrees.

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Oh ok.

So how often do you see a map like this in springtime?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.../cag3/cag3.html

But that has nothing to do with what the temps might be a month, two months, five months down the line. By the logic you're using, one warm month means the following month will also be warm, which means the following month will also be warm, ad infinitum.

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But that has nothing to do with what the temps might be a month, two months, five months down the line. By the logic you're using, one warm month means the following month will also be warm, which means the following month will also be warm, ad infinitum.

My point with that map was that it is springtime and we're breaking heat records. So his assertion that we would not have a record breaking hot spring is already wrong. This was the warmest March ever for the U.S., according to NOAA.

I was not implying temperatures will be warm forever. I only think we will be very hot this spring and summer based on the current pattern we're in. I've made no forecasts for next fall and beyond... not sure why anyone would think I was saying that.

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Added warmest Jan-Mar

2012: 47.3

1990: 46.3

1998: 44.4

Almost a clear 3 degrees above 3rd place. If we are merely average for the remainder of the year, we will have a top-5 warmest year at DCA. +0.7 the rest of the way makes 2012 the king. That is how warm it has been. :o

And now the warmest January-April average:

2012: 50.0

1990: 49.0

1976: 48.0

On the other hand, the March-April temperature increase of 1.5 degrees at DCA was the second smallest change on record in DC history and the smallest since 1907, when the temperature actually declined by 0.4 degrees between March and April. Also, assuming no rain before midnight at DCA, January-April 2012 precipitation will be only 7.46 inches -- the sixth lowest on record and the lowest since 1985's 7.09 inches. The all-time low was 6.28 inches in 1872. But then again, if you measure precipitation at DCA over the last nine months, it is 35.69 inches -- the 19th most on record from August to April. The record for those nine months was 44.88 inches from August 1934 to April 1935.

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