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Weekend Storm Discussion 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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Looks like we now have some consistency across the board. From quick glances it seems that the GFS and Euro are in some agreement.

I'd feel alot better if the 84 NAM was on board. :P

I like the fact that ALL the models are basically within 50-100 miles of each other and resemble the ensembles. Makes me think large swings are less likely

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The relevant discussion from lwx:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIPRES BUILDS IN FRI...PASSING OVHD FRI NGT AND OFFSHORE SAT.

DESPITE CAA...DWNSLPG FLOW AND SUNNY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV NRML

THRU SAT. MAXIMA SHUD REACH U40S-M50S AND MINIMA FCST TO RNG FROM

U20S-M30S.

SFC LOPRES ASSOCIATED WITH UPR TROF IN SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE

FROM DEEP SOUTH SAT INTO SRN PORTIONS OF MID-ATLC SAT NGT. THIS

SYSTEM IS THEN FCST TO MOVE N/E OFF MID-ATLC COAST ON SUN. 0Z

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN FCSTG CYCLONE TO INTERACT

WITH NRN STREAM SHRTWV TROF...CREATING A STRONGER LOPRES WITH A

TRACK FARTHER N...CLOSER TO CWA. THIS WARRANTS INCRG POPS TO HIGH

CHC/LOW LIKELY ACRS RGN SAT NGT/SUN...WITH GREATEST POPS ACRS SRN

ZONES. VERTICAL THICKNESSES/H8 TEMPS LOOK COLD ENUF TO SUPPORT SNOW

...BUT SFC/LLVL TEMPS APPEAR RELATIVELY WARM UNLESS SIGNIFICANT

DYNAMICAL COOLG OCCURS. KEPT PTYPE RN/SN MIX FOR MOST OF

CWA...WITH MOSTLY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MAINLY RAIN E OF

I-95. UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH IN WKEND FCST...BUT ACCUMULATING

SNOW DOES APPEAR PSBL.

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