Pattern shifted in this first week of February as anticipated by Will and others...

[powderfreak]

Its been bad enough and even the ski areas could use a bit of luck...might as well roll the dice on a higher qpf pattern and hope it turns out well. Its better than the status quo IMHO.

Roll the dice and hope you come up lucky.

That's where I'm at right now... this has been absurdly dry lately. Like weeks on end with 7 day QPF totals of like 0.15".

But then again, mother nature loves her averages and we had a record wet year in 2011 (like 500 year flooding on Lake Champlain, too)... the flip side of the coin is a very dry start to 2012. We had to expect that to turn around... same with the high snowfall departures of the last 10 years on average.

[ORH_wxman]

That's where I'm at right now... this has been absurdly dry lately. Like weeks on end with 7 day QPF totals of like 0.15".

But then again, mother nature loves her averages and we had a record wet year in 2011 (like 500 year flooding on Lake Champlain, too)... the flip side of the coin is a very dry start to 2012. We had to expect that to turn around... same with the high snowfall departures of the last 10 years on average.

It would good for the ski areas up north to get people fired up for March skiing. If we can get a good system or two in here even if it give us 3-6" and then a flip....up north it would better than that...and people might think about skiing again rather than tossing frisbees and playing hacky sack on brown torched grass on Boston common.

Might as well go for broke at this point, there's really nothing to lose except a few places that have some marginal conditions that only die hards are going to be on every day. The public needs to get fired up for winter sports before its over.

[powderfreak]

Would like to see a little stronger system for mid week next week, Airmass is just so marginal to produce snow outside of the mtns

Even in the mountains its pretty much rain below 1,500-2,000ft, lol.

If its anything like that last even with H85s solidly below 0C up here... and it still rained at 1,000ft. You are left with some column that is 27F/-3C at 4,000ft and 37F at 1,000ft in steady precipitation.

Heck we could probably still rain at 1,000ft and below this year with H85s of -5C or so.

[Ginx snewx]

No offense, Tip... but you've had quite a bit of posts about the universe trying to screw you and how this season has been awful or the absolute worst you could ever imagine.  I hope you are not saying you have infinite endurance against bad luck weather.  But then again I just read all 9 paragraphs again and I still can't exactly figure out what the meaning of that entire post is.  Is it to put down folks who enjoy snow or put yourself above it all?

Exactly, what a total disaster post, I read enough when I saw the Will licking wounds part. Tip, lick this.

[dryslot]

Exactly, what a total disaster post, I read enough when I saw the Will licking wounds part. Tip, lick this.

I shrugged it off seeing he posted it right after my comment

[powderfreak]

It would good for the ski areas up north to get people fired up for March skiing. If we can get a good system or two in here even if it give us 3-6" and then a flip....up north it would better than that...and people might think about skiing again rather than tossing frisbees and playing hacky sack on brown torched grass on Boston common.

Might as well go for broke at this point, there's really nothing to lose except a few places that have some marginal conditions that only die hards are going to be on every day. The public needs to get fired up for winter sports before its over.

Exactly... we are packed up here today (like 8,000 people are here) but after President's Week, if it doesn't snow in a big dump... the tourists are pretty much done. Conditions are quite good up this way but its very localized and the general outlook is poor across the northeast. Even upslope storms don't really do much in terms of business as people just don't understand that and it isn't news worthy. We need a big nor'easter or some sort of storm that gets the SNE meteorologists on TV/radio talking about it... it has to be synoptic in nature and they'll make a passing comment about how it will snow in the north country or big snows for ski country. No one cares (and I can't blame them) if we get 12" of upslope that falls over like 16 square miles of the earth, lol. Those types of events do not reach the masses.

So here's to hoping for something...anything...synoptic that might be able to lay down greater than 3". Our largest synoptic storm this season is still the 9-10" that fell on Thanksgiving. We've had some upslope systems in the 10-14" range but for synoptic snow, I never would've thought the largest would be on Thanksgiving. As I'm sure SNE never thought the largest would be before Halloween.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Tip just needs to get it out of his system every now and then.

Sometimes he takes his bat and ball with him and goes home, only to cOme back the next day wanting to play.

We all have our faults

[Ginx snewx]

Exactly... we are packed up here today (like 8,000 people are here) but after President's Week, if it doesn't snow in a big dump... the tourists are pretty much done.  Conditions are quite good up this way but its very localized and the general outlook is poor across the northeast.  Even upslope storms don't really do much in terms of business as people just don't understand that and it isn't news worthy.  We need a big nor'easter or some sort of storm that gets the SNE meteorologists on TV/radio talking about it... it has to be synoptic in nature and they'll make a passing comment about how it will snow in the north country or big snows for ski country.  No one cares (and I can't blame them) if we get 12" of upslope that falls over like 16 square miles of the earth, lol.  Those types of events do not reach the masses.

So here's to hoping for something...anything...synoptic that might be able to lay down greater than 3".  Our largest synoptic storm this season is still the 9-10" that fell on Thanksgiving.  We've had some upslope systems in the 10-14" range but for synoptic snow, I never would've thought the largest would be on Thanksgiving.  As I'm sure SNE never thought the largest would be before Halloween.

From a March skiers perspective and a very selfish point of view. I would rather it bomb snow in the Mts and the Boston Hartford NYC areas are bone dry with TV Mets showing park photos.  When everybody is in baseball mode I like it.

[Typhoon Tip]

No offense, Tip... but you've had quite a bit of posts about the universe trying to screw you and how this season has been awful or the absolute worst you could ever imagine. I hope you are not saying you have infinite endurance against bad luck weather. But then again I just read all 9 paragraphs again and I still can't exactly figure out what the meaning of that entire post is. Is it to put down folks who enjoy snow or put yourself above it all?

Eh, just commiserating fella - you know? fitting in? Not a bad thing to show empathy by joining the chorus here and there..

Don't take offense at what I posted - even though you say, "no offense" - your retort is still unnecessarily defensive. There's a lot of humor there if you let it

[HoarfrostHubb]

March skiing is the best up north

Soft snow. No crowds Good times

[CoastalWx]

More moisture means more chances, especially up north. Being below 3" of liquid equivalent since Jan 1st is pretty bad. Nevermind the warmth...no moisture simply means less snow. At least the next couple of weeks will offer chances..with obviously the interior and NNE probably being favored, but the whole region in general probably has a shot. Well, except everyone near Fairfield CT.

[Typhoon Tip]

Exactly, what a total disaster post, I read enough when I saw the Will licking wounds part. Tip, lick this.

Wah wah wah...

Hey man - It was a response to reading like ...20 posts across various threads from Scott and Will, where they spoke intelligently and maturely about what's going on, yet these woe is the world post from everyone else.

Also, I wouldn't discuss this unhealthy neurological predisposition for snow if there were no reason to perceive that as real.

[powderfreak]

Eh, just commiserating fella - you know? fitting in? Not a bad thing to show empathy by joining the chorus here and there..

Don't take offense at what I posted - even though you say, "no offense" - your retort is still unnecessarily defensive. There's a lot of humor there if you let it

This is true... there are parts that are pretty good. Calling the snow lovers loons... "snow driven one-flew-over-the-coo-coo's-nest loons"... was pretty funny. No harm no foul, just wasn't sure how serious that post was.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro has a system of note at D6...hopefully something can come of it. Even an advisory event would be a nice start.

There's a ton of cold its building in the north...there is going to be a hell of a temp gradient...enhanced even more at the sfc given the increasing insolation. Hopefully some systems can take advantage of that gradient and we are on the right side of them.

[Ginx snewx]

Wah wah wah...

Hey man - It was a response to reading like ...20 posts across various threads from Scott and Will, where they spoke intelligently and maturely about what's going on, yet these woe is the world post from everyone else.  

Also, I wouldn't discuss this unhealthy neurological predisposition for snow if there were no reason to perceive that as real.

Just kidding bro and you know it

[CoastalWx]

The longwave pattern later nhext week isn't all that bad looking. It would be nice to even squeeze an inch or two somehow.

[Ginx snewx]

More moisture means more chances, especially up north.

Peter North?

[Typhoon Tip]

This is true... there are parts that are pretty good. Calling the snow lovers loons... "snow driven one-flew-over-the-coo-coo's-nest loons"... was pretty funny. No harm no foul, just wasn't sure how serious that post was.

Yeah ...not serious at all. - a lot of intent at dark levity.

Although, admittedly ...a fault of mine at times might be tact, in that a lot of folks are not really in the right frame of mind to receive jests - hahhaha. Not now anywho- yikes.

Ginx took that all waaaaaaay too seriously j/k

[Ginx snewx]

March skiing is the best up north

Soft snow. No crowds   Good times

I hope they get a good synoptic soon though

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah ...not serious at all. - a lot of intent at dark levity.

Although, admittedly ...a fault of mine at times might be tact, in that a lot of folks are really in the right frame of mind to receive jests - hahhaha.   Not now anywho- yikes.  

Ginx took that all waaaaaaay too seriously  

you are kidding me right

[Typhoon Tip]

you are kidding me right

LOL

[dryslot]

Peter North?

lol

[CoastalWx]

Man, would it be too much to ask..even for something to break right? For instance a low that tucks under SNE after looking like it would go over SNE...or a wave developing along a front and we get a raisn to snow deal? It would be nice for something to go right inside of 96 hrs.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think anyone has been affected more negatively with the lack of snow this winter than Tip. Has really taken it hard and let it get to him..which has come out in many of his War and Peace diatribes

[HoarfrostHubb]

I hope they get a good synoptic soon though

You will be skiing in a wet pasty bomb that is so hard your goggles will be coated. SR and the Loaf always come through in March

[ORH_wxman]

Man, would it be too much to ask..even for something to break right? For instance a low that tucks under SNE after looking like it would go over SNE...or a wave developing along a front and we get a raisn to snow deal? It would be nice for something to go right inside of 96 hrs.

D6 looks like a shoit at advisory for the interior verbatim...but obviously way too far out there to get specific. I like the mean trough over the east and the balls cold up in Canada and even getting into the northern tier of the US. We have a lot of 510-516 thicknesses over NE.

[Ginx snewx]

Man, would it be too much to ask..even for something to break right? For instance a low that tucks under SNE after looking like it would go over SNE...or a wave developing along a front and we get a raisn to snow deal? It would be nice for something to go right inside of 96 hrs.

Apparently yes, never seen anything like it Scott, never. Folks can post snow totals etc but synoptically this is number uno for its utter boredom.

[CoastalWx]

D6 looks like a shoit at advisory for the interior verbatim...but obviously way too far out there to get specific. I like the mean trough over the east and the balls cold up in Canada and even getting into the northern tier of the US. We have a lot of 510-516 thicknesses over NE.

Next week has slowly looked a little better after looking like it could torch. But, I'm not going to take anything seriously until inside 96 hrs. That day 6 thing has been flagged by some guidance since yesterday.

But yeah, at least Canada cools off again. It loses lost the raging torch flow for the time being up there.

[Typhoon Tip]

Man, would it be too much to ask..even for something to break right? For instance a low that tucks under SNE after looking like it would go over SNE...or a wave developing along a front and we get a raisn to snow deal? It would be nice for something to go right inside of 96 hrs.

Yeah...agreed...and it all fits in with that "no events" thing I bemused earlier - it's funny because it's true really.

Can't winter if nothing is happening -

From a more emotive sense, I'm on the fence. If it went 60s real early and pushed crocuses and tulips, greened up lawns by the middle march and swelled buds fooled by the relative balm to the air... I think I'm all set with that. If it collapsed to a 1956 March redux, that would be pretty nice too.

I just am going to loathe April no matter what happens, so whatever happens between now and April 1 I'm evenly split.

The next thing is to get the weather to respect our druthers lol

[CoastalWx]

Apparently yes, never seen anything like it Scott, never. Folks can post snow totals etc but synoptically this is number uno for its utter boredom.

Every winter seems to have something that goes right...even if it's a clipper that brought 2-4, when 3 days earlier, was just a front coming through. Maybe the south coast folks could argue about the band of S+ they got in that storm a few weeks ago,..but that was a function of mesoscale banding.