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January 2012 General Discussion/Obs Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Time to move to Alaska

610temp.new.gif814temp.new.gif

I may be deluding myself, but I definitely think there's a chance next week doesn't turn out as bad as it once looked. There have been a couple of model runs showing a shallow arctic airmass possibly getting entrenched with several transient "50/50" lows blocking up what would otherwise be a progressive pattern.

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Just took a look at the snowfall for Ann Arbor so far, and turns out we're already at 19.4" here. Definitely doesn't seem like it though...out of the 19 days with snowfall, 13 of them have been less than 1" and only one storm produced >3". Beyond nickle and diming.

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Made it to 42 today. Lost a few inches of snow, but still a solid cover of 1-2" on the ground. Bare spots showing though where snow was drifted away.

pretty much the same here, except it hit 44.

with continued mild temps and some rain/drizzle overnight, the melting should continue.

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I may be deluding myself, but I definitely think there's a chance next week doesn't turn out as bad as it once looked. There have been a couple of model runs showing a shallow arctic airmass possibly getting entrenched with several transient "50/50" lows blocking up what would otherwise be a progressive pattern.

The last several runs of the GFS have made torching much shorter lived than previous runs. But in this winter I trust nothing. We can worry about that later lol, lets worry about potential snow events later this week :)

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Really not that bad. AK vortex from hell remains but a lot of the members seem to pop a +PNA/-NAO which actually allows us to tap some colder air. Beh, I'd lean towards the EURO ensembles as they're probably more reliable but at least it's not like there's no hope

The GFS ENS have been quite horrible at times. Just last week they flipped from consistantly showing a mod/strong -AO back to the +AO we have been seeing.

Also...The GFS ENS have a tentative upgrade date of Jan 24th

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pretty much the same here, except it hit 44.

with continued mild temps and some rain/drizzle overnight, the melting should continue.

The snow drifts outside of town are almost completely brown. Must have had quite a bit of dust blowing along with the snow last week. Makes sense since it was dry before the snow, and there was no rain or melting at the onset of the snow. Some of the drifts look like sand dunes lol.

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Just took a look at the snowfall for Ann Arbor so far, and turns out we're already at 19.4" here. Definitely doesn't seem like it though...out of the 19 days with snowfall, 13 of them have been less than 1" and only one storm produced >3". Beyond nickle and diming.

Thanks for posting that number. Do you use your own stats or where do you get them from? I was wanting to keep track of Ann Arbor because nickle and diming yes, but I swear every single event they are getting some heavy band sit over them. And it shows, they nearly doubled Detroit's total.

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Thanks for posting that number. Do you use your own stats or where do you get them from? I was wanting to keep track of Ann Arbor because nickle and diming yes, but I swear every single event they are getting some heavy band sit over them. And it shows, they nearly doubled Detroit's total.

I just found it on NOWData from here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=dtx

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Oh and heres a thought for the lake snow people. With the waters being so warm and ice free, it seems there may be several more nice lake effect events down the road, and hopefully some lake enhanced clippers.

I have been in Allegan county for this past event. The models totally under-estimated this last event. One of the local TV METs (they actually have a couple very good ones out this way) noticed this and said the LES would over-perform & was right. He figured the models are not accounting for how warm Lake MI really is for January. The lakes are wide open and he expects there will be more significant LES events ahead.

This warmth today have over-performed and cause significant damage to the snow even out here unfortunately.

It was great being out here for a major event!

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Just took a look at the snowfall for Ann Arbor so far, and turns out we're already at 19.4" here. Definitely doesn't seem like it though...out of the 19 days with snowfall, 13 of them have been less than 1" and only one storm produced >3". Beyond nickle and diming.

When I lived in Ann Arbor for 4 years, I could never believe the totals that were reported "unofficially" at the coop or whatever station they were using. Yes, it's definitely a tad snowier spot in southeast Michigan but seems the totals were always inflated.

Maybe I'm a more conservative snow measurer, but there were often times that totals would come in double than what I could ever find. It would baffle me that Ann Arbor would report a 6" total, yet I measured 3" and numerous times I'd measure maybe an inch or an inch and a half while the "unofficial" total was 2 to 3 inches.

I think in places in the Midwest it's quite common for two very close places to end up with wildly different seasonal totals just on that small margin of error. Especially in the lakes where you can easily have 30+ days of measurable snow, a site that reports just 0.6" more for each event, while not visibly noticeable or appear out of whack on a PNS now has a whopping 18" more for a seasonal total.

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