Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 IND has 54 here next Sunday, which is 20 degrees above normal. You know it's going to be warm when they go that far above average 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Today's runs do seem a little cooler in the extended but we are talking about well above average vs extremely above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 continue do we have to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The fact that this thread was tagged "discount double check" literally made me laught out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 do we have to? I'll answer my own question. Yes we do. That's a heck of a CAD signature. You want to lessen next week's warmup, here's how you do it: Plus, that's a wicked pinger/ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Really not that bad. AK vortex from hell remains but a lot of the members seem to pop a +PNA/-NAO which actually allows us to tap some colder air. Beh, I'd lean towards the EURO ensembles as they're probably more reliable but at least it's not like there's no hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wow, kinda scary that 384 hours is February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 IND has 54 here next Sunday, which is 20 degrees above normal. You know it's going to be warm when they go that far above average 6 days out. lol, MEX went from 49 at 0z to 42 with the 12z run for Sunday. I'll side with IND, but take the easy over on 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 lol, MEX went from 49 at 0z to 42 with the 12z run for Sunday. I'll side with IND, but take the easy over on 54. Yeah there's definitely been a cooler trend. We're still a week out so I don't know if it sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Should start a Feb thread soon...Jan is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Made it to 52. Bye snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 As if weenies needed more models, I saw this posted in the Mid-Atlantic forum...experimental GFS. Enjoy. http://www.americanw...ost__p__1283530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Made it to 52. Bye snow. 43 here, but same result. Snow disappeared. Holding out for Wed night or more likely Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Time to move to Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Oh and heres a thought for the lake snow people. With the waters being so warm and ice free, it seems there may be several more nice lake effect events down the road, and hopefully some lake enhanced clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Made it to 42 today. Lost a few inches of snow, but still a solid cover of 1-2" on the ground. Bare spots showing though where snow was drifted away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Time to move to Alaska I may be deluding myself, but I definitely think there's a chance next week doesn't turn out as bad as it once looked. There have been a couple of model runs showing a shallow arctic airmass possibly getting entrenched with several transient "50/50" lows blocking up what would otherwise be a progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Just took a look at the snowfall for Ann Arbor so far, and turns out we're already at 19.4" here. Definitely doesn't seem like it though...out of the 19 days with snowfall, 13 of them have been less than 1" and only one storm produced >3". Beyond nickle and diming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Made it to 42 today. Lost a few inches of snow, but still a solid cover of 1-2" on the ground. Bare spots showing though where snow was drifted away. pretty much the same here, except it hit 44. with continued mild temps and some rain/drizzle overnight, the melting should continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I may be deluding myself, but I definitely think there's a chance next week doesn't turn out as bad as it once looked. There have been a couple of model runs showing a shallow arctic airmass possibly getting entrenched with several transient "50/50" lows blocking up what would otherwise be a progressive pattern. The last several runs of the GFS have made torching much shorter lived than previous runs. But in this winter I trust nothing. We can worry about that later lol, lets worry about potential snow events later this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2012 Author Share Posted January 16, 2012 Really not that bad. AK vortex from hell remains but a lot of the members seem to pop a +PNA/-NAO which actually allows us to tap some colder air. Beh, I'd lean towards the EURO ensembles as they're probably more reliable but at least it's not like there's no hope The GFS ENS have been quite horrible at times. Just last week they flipped from consistantly showing a mod/strong -AO back to the +AO we have been seeing. Also...The GFS ENS have a tentative upgrade date of Jan 24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 pretty much the same here, except it hit 44. with continued mild temps and some rain/drizzle overnight, the melting should continue. The snow drifts outside of town are almost completely brown. Must have had quite a bit of dust blowing along with the snow last week. Makes sense since it was dry before the snow, and there was no rain or melting at the onset of the snow. Some of the drifts look like sand dunes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Just took a look at the snowfall for Ann Arbor so far, and turns out we're already at 19.4" here. Definitely doesn't seem like it though...out of the 19 days with snowfall, 13 of them have been less than 1" and only one storm produced >3". Beyond nickle and diming. Thanks for posting that number. Do you use your own stats or where do you get them from? I was wanting to keep track of Ann Arbor because nickle and diming yes, but I swear every single event they are getting some heavy band sit over them. And it shows, they nearly doubled Detroit's total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Thanks for posting that number. Do you use your own stats or where do you get them from? I was wanting to keep track of Ann Arbor because nickle and diming yes, but I swear every single event they are getting some heavy band sit over them. And it shows, they nearly doubled Detroit's total. I just found it on NOWData from here: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=dtx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Time to move to Alaska I like this one better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I like this one better. ....its exactly the same thing with different colors...or is that all you like better about it lol EDIT: Nevermind I get it now. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Oh and heres a thought for the lake snow people. With the waters being so warm and ice free, it seems there may be several more nice lake effect events down the road, and hopefully some lake enhanced clippers. I have been in Allegan county for this past event. The models totally under-estimated this last event. One of the local TV METs (they actually have a couple very good ones out this way) noticed this and said the LES would over-perform & was right. He figured the models are not accounting for how warm Lake MI really is for January. The lakes are wide open and he expects there will be more significant LES events ahead. This warmth today have over-performed and cause significant damage to the snow even out here unfortunately. It was great being out here for a major event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 I like this one better. If that black line is the jetstream, no thanks. Warm/wet > cold/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Just took a look at the snowfall for Ann Arbor so far, and turns out we're already at 19.4" here. Definitely doesn't seem like it though...out of the 19 days with snowfall, 13 of them have been less than 1" and only one storm produced >3". Beyond nickle and diming. When I lived in Ann Arbor for 4 years, I could never believe the totals that were reported "unofficially" at the coop or whatever station they were using. Yes, it's definitely a tad snowier spot in southeast Michigan but seems the totals were always inflated. Maybe I'm a more conservative snow measurer, but there were often times that totals would come in double than what I could ever find. It would baffle me that Ann Arbor would report a 6" total, yet I measured 3" and numerous times I'd measure maybe an inch or an inch and a half while the "unofficial" total was 2 to 3 inches. I think in places in the Midwest it's quite common for two very close places to end up with wildly different seasonal totals just on that small margin of error. Especially in the lakes where you can easily have 30+ days of measurable snow, a site that reports just 0.6" more for each event, while not visibly noticeable or appear out of whack on a PNS now has a whopping 18" more for a seasonal total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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