usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm really more interested in what might happen along the west coast from northern Ca into Washington. Their pattern could put them in heavy precip or cold. Now look at how wet a couple of the members are for northern CA. Before I retired I did a climo study of the 10 biggest rainfall events for the northern CA area and a large number of them had a massive positive height anomaly over or just west of AK. Note where the anomaly is for the biggest event. #1 http://www.hpc.ncep....les/Page298.htm for the second biggest #2 http://www.hpc.ncep....les/Page298.htm for the third biggest #3 http://www.hpc.ncep....les/Page312.htm On all three note where the positive anomalies are and then compare them with I guess the question is whether the floodgates will open in the west and if so what that means for the rest of the county. How the trofiness digs on the easterrn side of the giant positive anomlay will ultimately determine whether the west coast ends up cold from flow coming down from AK and western Canada or wet if the upper trof/low develops far enough west to tap into pacific moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Thank you for starting this thread, Wes. As our region grows and activity increases daily, thoughts of you and other fine Pros will go along way to helping bring activity to the entire community. Thanks again, my friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Guidance has been trending toward the Pac jet undercutting the -EPO, which doesn't fit with the MJO analogs for Phase 4 (where the ECM is trending). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Guidance has been trending toward the Pac jet undercutting the -EPO, which doesn't fit with the MJO analogs for Phase 4 (where the ECM is trending). It wettiing up is predicated on the undercutting of the massive -epo ridge. Having the positive anomaly that far north I think does teleconnect with either undercutting of almost some type of Rex blocking look developing with the low to the southeast of the block producing enough onshore flow and storminess to get the pac northwest wet. Of course we're still dealing with model forecast of the ridge so I could just be spewing garbage but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Good discussion...certainly the potential is there... on the things that can go wrong are, for example, if the Bering strait ridge retrogrades a little faster than forecasted before there's any significant s/w impulse along the undercutting jet... in that case the winners would be along the W coast of Canada... looking at teleconnections, there's little hope for a +PNA pattern for the next 2 weeks, so I don't think that would dash hopes for CA, OR and WA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Good discussion...certainly the potential is there... on the things that can go wrong are, for example, if the Bering strait ridge retrogrades a little faster than forecasted before there's any significant s/w impulse along the undercutting jet... in that case the winners would be along the W coast of Canada... looking at teleconnections, there's little hope for a +PNA pattern for the next 2 weeks, so I don't think that would dash hopes for CA, OR and WA I think the threat is greatest for WA and OR and well and Vancouver Island but could see it getting down to nrn CA if things played out the right way for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The pics I've seen of ski resorts in the Sierra are really depressing. They could use some moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 The pics I've seen of ski resorts in the Sierra are really depressing. They could use some moisture. This still could stay north of them, especially the southern Sierra parts as they typically don't do well in a nina. From SFO norhtward is a different story as OR and WA typically have their wettest years during ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 12Z Euro is rather impressive for the Pacific NW suggesting a potent storm and some very cold temps building in NW Canada spilling S. The Bering Sea block is notably strong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 The latest GFS ensemble mean at 240 hours likes the idea of wetting up the west even into central CA. It will be interesting to see if the euro ens follow its lead. For those who aren't mets. the strong onshore pressure gradient implies lots of upslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 12Z Euro is rather impressive for the Pacific NW suggesting a potent storm and some very cold temps building in NW Canada spilling S. The Bering Sea block is notably strong as well. Steve having a cold surge like the euro is forecasting and putting down some snow in the Cascades and Olympics is one of the way to later sow the seeds for flooding. Below I've posted the GFS ensemble mean and which still probably would be snow across the cascades. However, if you retrograde everything a little then you get southwest flow into the same areas which can raise the snow levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 And the operational day 10 forecast. Note a couple of strong storms stacked up aimed at the PAC Nw with the trough setting up to the southwest of the monster upper ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 And the operational day 10 forecast. Note a couple of strong storms stacked up aimed at the PAC Nw with the trough setting up to the southwest of the monster upper ridge. Yea, that's great and all but what does this mean for the mid-atlantic?? The CO rockies are hurtin something fierce just like the tahoe resorts in CA. With the exception of the very far sw resort of wolf creek, all resorts are way behind where they should be for this time of year. It's encouraging to see the potential for moist pacific flow to potentially invade OR & WA, That is generally the best orientation for good orographic snows for the central and northern CO mountains. The best snows in the n central and northern rockies will come from orographic events from a strong jet on a W to NW flow. Closed lows are generally only good for the SW portion of the state. If the firehouse does set up into OR and WA then UT and the northern half of the CO rockies can make up some ground in a hurry. They could sure use it for skiing season and filling the reservoirs in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You central/western people can thank us MAers for having a crappy winter, which in turn caused Wes to leave us high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You central/western people can thank us MAers for having a crappy winter, which in turn caused Wes to leave us high and dry Or that we have interesting weather too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Mallow should head back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Or that we have interesting weather too... pfffft please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Or that we have interesting weather too... I lived in the n central CO rockies from 92-99. I freekin loved the weather (except for the summer monsoon season. that was kind of a bummer every year). Sunny days were awesome too. Crystal blue skies and puffy cumulus and no humidity. High based thunderstorms were alot of fun. You had a choice to avoid them or drive right into them. Whichever you preferred. I love the 4 seasons of the mid-atlantic but if I had to choose a location based on weather alone, I'll take the rockies over just about anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The medium/long range guidance continues to advertise an active pattern for the Pacific NW and possibly N CA. The longer range GFS indicates the Pacific will remain active with multiple storms systems and even drought easing rains across the Southern Plains and Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 736 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012 VALID 12Z SUN JAN 15 2012 - 12Z WED JAN 18 2012 TELECONNECTIONS WITH STRONG POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE BERING SEA AND BRITISH COLUMBIA RESPECTIVELY TOWARD THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FAVOR A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW FROM ASIA ACROSS THE PACIFIC INTO THE U.S. WEST AND EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS KEEPS BELOW AVG HTS AND COLD WET CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHER HTS ARE FORECAST BY MEANS AND TELECONNECTIONS ACROSS ERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE GOOD RIGHT THROUGH DAYS 6/7 TUES/WED. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLEND BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF AND THEIR MEANS. INCREASING SNOWFALL AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE PERIOD IN WA/OR WITH LONGER TERM CONTINUED WET CONDITIONS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Steve, I think you and I are the only ones interested in this upcoming firehose. I looked at the CPC D+11 superensemble mean that identified dates based on the 5 day period centered on day 11. two of the 10 dates identified were top 10 rainfall events since 1950 for the SFO/SAC up to almost the OR border events. These type events typically are not limited to one but come with multiple storms. You can kind of see that by looking at the 180 hr ens members and then another grouping around day 11. Note how many members show yellows along the west coast of CA on the two separate panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Steve, I think you and I are the only ones interested in this upcoming firehose. I looked at the CPC D+11 superensemble mean that identified dates based on the 5 day period centered on day 11. two of the 10 dates identified were top 10 rainfall events since 1950 for the SFO/SAC up to almost the OR border events. These type events typically are not limited to one but come with multiple storms. You can kind of see that by looking at the 180 hr ens members and then another grouping around day 11. My hunch were are not the only one watching this, Wes. If the pattern holds true, a trip out West to Shasta may be in the works for a little ski trip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I am watching too. I am from Portland Oregon so even if I dont live there anymore I keep tabs. It appears like I might get rain here too but I am wanting snow, its definitely cloes though. Do you guys think I will get some snow here? Some solutions show just that while others are high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portastorm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is it safe to assume that as long as a "firehouse" is pounding the Pacific Northwest, that the flow into Texas will likely be zonal (i.e. mild)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Some impressive totals via the 12Z GFS for WA/OR and N CA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The N Colorado Rockies could def use the precip for the ski season. Do you think this pattern will be sustained through February or is it more likely that we see a couple week shot for N CO then a reversion to dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Is it safe to assume that as long as a "firehouse" is pounding the Pacific Northwest, that the flow into Texas will likely be zonal (i.e. mild)? Yep, the southern 2/3 of the country east of the Rockies should be toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 And in the Sierra range and the russian river basin, that probably will be underdone because of the lower resolution of course providing the models have the pattern right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The new Euro has almost all of western OR and NW CA over 5" total precip through 240 hours with an even stronger system headed in at 240. Whenever you get a closed off upper high over or near AK it opens the floodgates. The northern Sierra should really do well, with the southern sections getting less but still more than recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.