andyhb Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Large area of 5% tornado probs across the Deep South for Tuesday. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST MON JAN 09 2012 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN AR/ERN LA INTO MS...AL...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY 00Z...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN MS AND NEAR THE AL BORDER BY WED MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM THE SABINE RIVER INTO SERN AR/NWRN MS BY 00Z...TREKKING NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. A LONG DURATION OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER MUCH OF MS AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN AL. BY 00Z...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN AR ACROSS SWRN MS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS LA...SRN MS AND AL. ...LOWER VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS...NOW EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL LA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM SWRN MS INTO SERN LA TUE MORNING...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS DURING THE MORNING. WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES...LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT...AS WELL AS A CONTINUED INFLUX OF AT LEAST LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE SHEAR. WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THE DOMINANT MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUPERCELLS. AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO YIELD A WIND AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT OVER SERN LA AND CNTRL/SRN MS DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS SHOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS WRN/NWRN MS...FAR NERN LA...AND SERN AR. HERE...FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST...AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMPENSATE FOR ONLY MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMTH. SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA AS WELL...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. NEWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT AREA WILL BE LIMITED BY A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT...N OF WHICH SURFACE AIR WILL BE STABLE. SOME HAIL THREAT MAY REMAIN N OF THIS FRONT IN AN ELEVATED SENSE AS SHEAR ALLOWS CORES TO PERSIST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WILL BE HIGH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD WHILE STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH...A THIRD AREA OF SEVERE MAY MATERIALIZE OVER CNTRL AND ERN AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...PERHAPS APPROACHING GA BY WED MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS HINT AT A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL/SRN AL AFTER 6Z. SHEAR WILL BE VERY STRONG...AND TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. ..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 01/10/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Gonna be interesting but as usual its a low cape high shear event so there really is no telling what will happen. If they get some sun and cape can get a bit higher than progged then I bet we will see some tornados maybe even more than a couple. I was interested in the wed outlook as well since it covers my neck of the woods. COASTAL CAROLINAS... AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES E OF THE APPALACHIANS...ESELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF STREAM MAY ALLOW MEAGER CAPE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS -- MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD. AS THIS INFLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR COMBINES WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LOW-END TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Pretty much in my backyard so I took a vacatoin day to chase. In Grenada currently with 62 degreess and the sun is starting to break thorugh the clouds. Fixing to push further south towards Jackson then follow the storms back north towards home (Memphis).... Even as I type the sun is breaking out more and more..... Could be a good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well, if we aren't going to have snow, at least we have something interesting to watch tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 sounds like a big rainmaker for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Some storms beginning to fire up in Southwestern Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Radar looked to be showing a downburst between Vicksburg and Jackson on and near I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 60S AS THE WARM SECTOR BEGINS TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS COASTAL SC. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO ERN NC LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM MOVES NEWD...RESULTING IN MODEST LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A NARROW ZONE NEAR THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. With the last event the boundry setup just offshore of ILM and produced a nasty line of storms each with a hook, the placement of this boundry will determine were if any at all we see tornados onshore today. The SE coastal areas of NC seem prime though with Wilmington at 59/57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Multiple reports of damage coming out of NC, appears tornadoes are the culprits. http://www.wcnc.com/home/Severe-weeather-pounding-NewsChannel-36-viewing-area-137130908.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Multiple reports of damage coming out of NC, appears tornadoes are the culprits. http://www.wcnc.com/...-137130908.html OBS in this thread also: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Multiple reports of damage coming out of NC, appears tornadoes are the culprits. http://www.wcnc.com/...-137130908.html local news here saying reports of structures down with injuries, trees down, and moble home flipped with injuries. Don't sound too good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Have there been any severe weather reports in the area that the SPC originally highlighted for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 tornado: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nope. At least none that have been reported and passed along to the SPC. Edit: Assuming you are talking about extreme eastern NC where the SPC originally issued the slight risk for today. Have there been any severe weather reports in the area that the SPC originally highlighted for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Have there been any severe weather reports in the area that the SPC originally highlighted for today? Damage reported in Western North Carolina: http://www2.wspa.com...-ef-ar-3023553/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is a picture of the damaging tornado today in North Carolina, courtesy of the FOX affiliate in Charlotte, North Carolina. Reports of significant damage, entrapments, and "several" injuries earlier. This is soooo not the way to start 2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Good to see you on here Fred but that is a nasty picture. My heart goes out to the people that's lives have been impacted today by severe weather and this tornado.Thank you for the pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 http://www.wlos.com/..._vid_6384.shtml http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20120111/NEWS/120111010/Possible-tornado-slams-2-WNC-counties?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 http://www.wlos.com/..._vid_6384.shtml Thanks Don and to everyone flooding in with info about this storm. Reality has really set end now. Seems like if we do not see a pattern change toward colder this is what we may have to endure the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The tornado in the picture was the one just north of Ellenboro. A mobile home was obliterated with 6 people inside, but they miraculously survived. Several other structures were damaged in the area. This tornado happened without a warning. As I mentioned in the OBS thread, the radar did not have a good look at this one and it blew up quickly. It appears the tornado, although strong, was not on the ground for very long in this location. The mesocyclone continued on and dropped another strong tornado southwest of...and then northwest of Hickory. Icard and Hildebran near I-40 got the worst of it and the radar was clear-cut this time as to the intensity of the tornado. This tornado was longer lasting and likely longer-tracked than the Ellenboro tornado. It also had a long warning lead time, which hopefully saved some lives. In any case, a brutal way for NC to begin the year, and all of it from a single storm cell. Thoughts, prayers and well-wishes to those in the impacted communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 So depending on how many they confirm from this storm (sounds like 2) this will make NC and TX the only states hit by tornados in 2012 so far and it would put the total number of tornados at 7 since there were 5 confirmed in the Houston area a few days ago. 2012 is of to a pretty good start..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 (Will preface this to say that the below statement is in no way a criticism of the Storm Prediction Center. As we all know in life, stuff happens....) ...And none of them have happened within a tornado watch or severe thunderstorm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the tornadoes here in Rutherford and Burke today were right after the cold front went through with temps at the surface in the 40's. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 (Will preface this to say that the below statement is in no way a criticism of the Storm Prediction Center. As we all know in life, stuff happens....) ...And none of them have happened within a tornado watch or severe thunderstorm watch. I will give them a pass on the ones today as I dont think anyone would have seen it coming, maybe someone does a case study on the setup and how it managed to produce such a isolated and random strong storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I will give them a pass on the ones today as I dont think anyone would have seen it coming, maybe someone does a case study on the setup and how it managed to produce such a isolated and random strong storm . I really wouldn't call them out over the stuff in Texas a few days ago either. The environment wasn't all that favorable for organized severe, and it was only a few EF0-EF1 tornadoes. This just isn't the way to start the year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The tornadoes in Burke and Rutherford look like may be ef2 or so. We'll know tomorrow. One thing I do know that played a part here is how the center of circulation tracked directly over the southern Apps, and helped spin up a meso low or eddy in the lee of the Southern Apps. We see this a lot with a 5H track like this, just usually they don't produce tornadoes in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah, I was shocked. Especially given the lack of instability for this event (low CAPE). However, when you have high low level shear, these events can overachieve the low CAPE just like last April. This just goes to show how important low level shear is in the equation for severe weather. the tornadoes here in Rutherford and Burke today were right after the cold front went through with temps at the surface in the 40's. Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 If there's one thing that some people should have learned for today, it's that you do not need such warmth for an event like this. With dynamics like the ones that were involved, you can still reach strong/severe levels with these thunderstorms. Just look at the hail and wind production from a few of these, and of course that dreadful twister that developed. Great example of a low cape-high shear scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 That area is a total hot bed for tornadoes. The outcropping of South Mountains has something to do with it I think. I've watched that area for many years and lately its just getting worse. The sudden changes of terrain east of the Spine of the mountains has something to do with it I'm sure. Every Spring and Summer there is a local max of precip/thunderstorms there as well, and severe weather is a given year round there. Many twisters have been spawned there the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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