Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I also want to take this time during the break to tell everyone this will be my last SE storm. I'm relocating to Washington DC for work. Its been a great 6 years between here and Eastern..... I'll still stop by to follow you guys and the great mets on here. I hope this can come through for us. Dude! No good! You'll be a big mid Atlantic guy now. Good luck, though up in the Cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I also want to take this time during the break to tell everyone this will be my last SE storm. I'm relocating to Washington DC for work. Its been a great 6 years between here and Eastern..... I'll still stop by to follow you guys and the great mets on here. I hope this can come through for us. Best of luck in your new position. I hope you enjoy DC, you will be missed here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 the NAM is setting the table at 84. Both GFS and NAM now have enough western energy topping the ridge that it could develop or absorb the southwest cutoff just after 84 hours. This fits the pattern this year , of systems breaking as they pass over the western ridge. Since we're entering a new pattern, it only remains to be seen if this trend continues, even with 2 models now showing it. Splitting flow, deep Eastern Canada vortex, southerly tracking system and Arctic air entrenched in most of the nation at 84 to 120 hours is a legitimate setup for Wintry weather in the upper South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 NAM coming in better I see. @Foothills Great explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wilksborodude in a few minutes you are gonna be goat or hero. Right now you may be able to put your head on the pillow tonight and wake up and do the 'But I slept at the Holiday Inn comercial." I'm hoping this thread brings the mojo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Wilksborodude in a few minutes you are gonna be goat or hero. Right now you may be able to put your head on the pillow tonight and wake up and do the 'But I slept at the Holiday Inn comercial." I'm hoping this thread brings the mojo: ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Could be a tough run for the GFS, not sure it can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks like this run is going to keep the sw cutoff too far out to be affected by the nw diving waves. Its pretty far removed. But its still possible the western wave topping the ridge digs down. This run makes a bigger deal of the initial cold blast and cuts off a vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yep kind of surprised given the NAM solution. Looks like WilkesboroDude might be a goat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looks like this run is going to keep the sw cutoff too far out to be affected by the nw diving waves. Its pretty far removed. But its still possible the western wave topping the ridge digs down. This run makes a bigger deal of the initial cold blast and cuts off a vortex. Amazing to see the NAM so different after 30 hours to the GFS. Well off to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The energy does look to phase at 90 but it's a little too late it looks like....we'll see what happens down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Is this the time for GFS to lose it and everybody dive and wake up to find the Euro found it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yep kind of surprised given the NAM solution. Looks like WilkesboroDude might be a goat! I'm not surprised that we have such disagreement out west early on. Things are on the move and theres a ton going on all of a sudden. None will probably be right. The best bet right now is lay low and wait until the dirt settles, that might take til Wed or Thursday. The way this Winter has gone, it'll never be settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm not surprised that we have such disagreement out west early on. Things are on the move and theres a ton going on all of a sudden. None will probably be right. The best bet right now is lay low and wait until the dirt settles, that might take til Wed or Thursday. The way this Winter has gone, it'll never be settled. Well this run of the GFS certainly keeps us cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Well this run of the GFS certainly keeps us cold. Yeah it made a bigger deal of the cold push and dug it deeper and was slow to move. There's so much energy in the west its going to be hard to have enough separation for that other wave to dig and cause its own storm. Can't say which run is right yet, there could be a surprise anyway. At 120, there is the nice digging s/w that was supposed to be more toward the Rockies. But it's too late on this run and too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS is drastically different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS is drastically different... Don't think anybody is surprised! Oh well on to the next ten day storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Nice thread Wilkesboro dude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'll reserve judgment for 12z tomorrow and especially the 6z NAM 00z NAM looked totally different at 500mb so clearly no model knows WTF is going on...but yes this thread was too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS is drastically different... And we are surprised how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Lol burger ya i agree that no models noes what is going on. I would not trust a model past 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 And we are surprised how? We were dreaming the GFS could do the impossible...come up with the exact same mathematical equation using complex physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 Let's see what Tuesday brings us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 LOL, We should know by now you can't trust any model showing snow in the SOUTHEAST within 48 hours much less a week out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yep onto the next fantasy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 00z GFS almost pulls out the miracle at 192 snow for some in NC it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 here we go again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I'm going to sleep on this image tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCMET Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Needs some Photoshop...push that ridge over the Midwest a little farther east and suppress that low track a good 100-150 miles further to the south :lol: :lol: I'm going to sleep on this image tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Needs some Photoshop...push that ridge over the Midwest a little farther east and suppress that low track a good 100-150 miles further to the south :lol: :lol: Yup. Verbatim, that's a moderate rain at a moderate temperature, even for KTRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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