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SE Mid-Long Range Discussion II


strongwxnc

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The CMC looks very close to fun for the upper mid-south. Looks like it's going to phase with a strong vort coming in just behind the low pressure in south mississippi. That's a REALLY good look, even if it is fantasy. haha

That's what we want. Slower moving cutoff sitting on the gulf coast waiting to get picked up by the northern stream.

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I just hate that we'll likely have to wait another 96 hours before we'll have an idea of whether the timing will be right.

And I do hate to have the CMC picking up on this solution first, given its abysmal performance among abysmally performing models this year. It's 6 day verification scores, last I looked, we're behind the euro gfs and ukie

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I just hate that we'll likely have to wait another 96 hours before we'll have an idea of whether the timing will be right.

And I do hate to have the CMC picking up on this solution first, given its abysmal performance among abysmally performing models this year. It's 6 day verification scores, last I looked, we're behind the euro gfs and ukie

It's always been behind those models. Gfs is behind the jma. The gfs is ranked 4th. Euro 1 Ukie 2.

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I just hate that we'll likely have to wait another 96 hours before we'll have an idea of whether the timing will be right.

And I do hate to have the CMC picking up on this solution first, given its abysmal performance among abysmally performing models this year. It's 6 day verification scores, last I looked, we're behind the euro gfs and ukie

There's still not enough confluence over the NE to yield a HP. At best you'll get some snow on the NW fringe of the precip shield but without a true 50/50 low in place to allow high pressure to build above it, this is cold chasing rain.

The pattern needs to evolve more to make these favorable setups to occur. Maybe this storm will develop into a PV over SE Canada to provide adequate HP production. The 0z Euro and yesterday's 12z was intimating this scenario.

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There's still not enough confluence over the NE to yield a HP. At best you'll get some snow on the NW fringe of the precip shield but without a true 50/50 low in place to allow high pressure to build above it, this is cold chasing rain.

Well I'm glad someone else came out and said it. Not to burst any bubbles but trying to extrapolate the model out in it's long range is never a good idea, and it rarely turns out how you might think. This also looks a lot like the 12Z Euro from yesterday where the UL was eventually absorbed into the cold front and not much came out of it. No telling what the Low does after hour 180, could be any number of outcomes, none of them look particularly snowy in the south.

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Well I'm glad someone else came out and said it. Not to burst any bubbles but trying to extrapolate the model out in it's long range is never a good idea, and it rarely turns out how you might think. This also looks a lot like the 12Z Euro from yesterday where the UL was eventually absorbed into the cold front and not much came out of it. No telling what the Low does after hour 180, could be any number of outcomes, none of them look particularly snowy in the south.

It's a weather board, and it's what the optimistic people do. There are realistic people on the board that can help balance us out. Give me that look (CMC) verbatim at 180 and I will take my chances with the outcome for the midsouth.

That said, I don't have rose colored glasses on with what I am seeing and have said it's likely fantasy.

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Well I'm glad someone else came out and said it. Not to burst any bubbles but trying to extrapolate the model out in it's long range is never a good idea, and it rarely turns out how you might think. This also looks a lot like the 12Z Euro from yesterday where the UL was eventually absorbed into the cold front and not much came out of it. No telling what the Low does after hour 180, could be any number of outcomes, none of them look particularly snowy in the south.

This pattern favors a big snow storm for the upper south. Most on the board would get rain out of this solution tho.

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This pattern favors a big snow storm for the upper south. Most on the board would get rain out of this solution tho.

Too warm ahead of the wave. Lack of 50/50 low. This isn't "the" torm. I'd say this pattern at this moment in time is not favorable, but it's better than what we were seeing last month. It's just the beginning of a pattern change.

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Depends on where we are talking about. Verbatim, the CMC would be snow in the western 1/2 of TN if you roll it forward past 180...with rain to snow in E TN. The cold air is coming in fast and the precip would not end until that trailing wave in the midwest moves through.

Good analysis, i agree. Tennessee is in a good spot. verbatim on the CMC.

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As for the 12z Canadian, yes, it shows a mid-south snow. Extrapolating,it probably wouldn't work out for areas east of the mountains unless you had an explosive coastal phasing.

One thing is sure on that model though.....it would get very cold in the eastern US following that system.

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As for the 12z Canadian, yes, it shows a mid-south snow. Extrapolating,it probably wouldn't work out for areas east of the mountains unless you had an explosive coastal phasing.

One thing is sure on that model though.....it would get very cold in the eastern US following that system.

Yes, and hopefully this will be the storm to relocate the PV over SE Canada.

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Too warm ahead of the wave. Lack of 50/50 low. This isn't "the" torm. I'd say this pattern at this moment in time is not favorable, but it's better than what we were seeing last month. It's just the beginning of a pattern change.

Even for Tenn? That's what I was referring to really. And Kentucky, a low that tracks thru central north Carolina would be great for them.

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As for the 12z Canadian, yes, it shows a mid-south snow. Extrapolating,it probably wouldn't work out for areas east of the mountains unless you had an explosive coastal phasing.

It's so far out but the timing could change for the better. Or worse.

One thing is sure on that model though.....it would get very cold in the eastern US following that system.

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Even for Tenn? That's what I was referring to really. And Kentucky, a low that tracks thru central north Carolina would be great for them.

That kind of a look extrapolated out would probably yield a 2-4 or 3-6 type of event. if it snowed in western/middle/and parts of east TN, and some of Kentucky, I'd argue that it was both major (we are in the south after all) and widespread.

Now, for the Carolinas, not so much. That map doesn't look good at all for them with what WOW is talking about and I can see his point easily for NC.

But from Johnson City, TN. I can get to Canada quicker than I can to Memphis. The state of Tennessee isn't wide, but it's extremely long. I would say hitting 1/2 our state is widespread in my book, but not everyone would share my definition.

It's all good though, that's what makes this weather board great.

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